Thai opinion polls put pro-Thaksin party ahead

Factbox: Thai opinion polls put pro-Thaksin party ahead - Yahoo! News

 

Most opinion polls for Thailand's July 3 general election put the opposition Puea Thai Party, controlled by ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, ahead of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's ruling Democrat Party.

Previous incarnations of Puea Thai have finished first in every election in the past decade. Thaksin was toppled by the military in 2006 and lives in Dubai to escape a jail term for corruption handed down in 2008. His sister, Yingluck, is Puea Thai's candidate to be prime minister.

Thai surveys tend to have fairly large margins of error, often as high as seven percentage points. Below is a snapshot of the most recent. (Opinion polls are not allowed in the final week of campaigning).

BANGKOK POLL (Bangkok University)

Its June 16-22 poll in Bangkok put Puea Thai as the favorites to win in the capital, a Democrat stronghold, with 37.9 percent, up from 33.6 percent previously. The Democrats scored 22.2 percent, an improvement from 17.1 percent in an earlier poll. Some 22.1 percent, of the 3,338 eligible voters were undecided.

DHURAKIJ PUNDIT UNIVERSITY/NATION MULTIMEDIA GROUP

This survey of Bangkok voters showed Puea Thai had stretched its lead to 22 of the capital's 33 constituencies from an earlier poll, while the Democrats led in six wards. Asked who their preferred prime ministerial candidate was, 47 percent said Yingluck and 39 percent backed the incumbent, Abhisit.

The leaders of two small parties were the next most popular choices, with 7 percent of respondents backing former policeman Purachai Piumsombun, the leader of the new Rak Santi Party and 4 percent favoring colorful former massage parlor tycoon Chuwit Kamolvisit of the Rak Prathet Thai Party.

ABAC (Assumption Business Administration College

A poll of 5,349 potential voters in 28 provinces including Bangkok on June 1-21 projected that Puea Thai would win 55 of the 125 "party list" seats in the new parliament, while the Democrats would win 49.

Some 30 percent of respondents were undecided.

The other seats in the 500-member parliament will be determined by votes for individuals in 375 constituencies.

DUSIT POLL (Suan Dusit Rajabhat University, Bangkok)

Its largest pre-election poll so far showed Puea Thai would win 51.5 percent of the vote, up from 43.1 percent in its May 23-28 survey. The Democrats slipped to 34 percent from 37.4 percent previously. Of the 102,994 people polled from June 4 to 18 in all 375 constituencies, just 2.4 percent were undecided.

NIDA POLL (National Institute of Development and Administration)

A June 13 survey nationwide, with a sampling of 1,247, said Puea Thai would take 30.5 percent of the vote, up from 18 percent a week earlier, with the Democrats on 17.4 percent, an improvement on the 9 percent it scored previously.

(Compiled by Martin Petty and Vithoon Amorn; Editing by Alan Raybould)