Showing posts with label investment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label investment. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Mengapa IHSG turun banget?

get shocked when IHSG has decreased so much since 16 of August 2013....

Analis Trust Securities, Reza Priyambada, mengatakan pidato Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono tentang asumsi makro-ekonomi 2014 tidak memberikan dampak positif pada pasar modal. Dia menilai asumsi makro-ekonomi yang cenderung tidak sesuai dengan kondisi riil malah membuat indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) melorot. "Investor malah cenderung melakukan aksi jual," kata dia, Selasa, 20 Agustus 2013.

Seperti diketahui, dalam pidato nota keuangan yang dibacakan pada 17 Agustus 2013, SBY mengatakan target pertumbuhan ekonomi 2014 mencapai 6,4 persen dengan mengandalkan konsumsi domestik. Inflasi ditargetkan sebesar 4,5 persen. Ini yang dinilai Reza tidak sesuai dengan kondisi riil.

Selain pidato SBY, Reza mengatakan investor ragu dengan pernyataan Menteri Keuangan Chatib Basri yang mengatakan nilai rupiah masih aman karena tidak separah pelemahan mata uang negara berkembang lainnya, seperti rupee India atau dolar Australia. Menurut Reza, pernyataan Chatib membuat pasar bergejolak karena investor menganggap pemerintah tidak melakukan langkah strategis dalam menahan pelemahan rupiah.

Meski begitu, Reza tidak menafikkan adanya faktor eksternal yang melemahkan IHSG. Rencana bank sentral Amerika Serikat (The Federal Reserve) untuk mengurangi stimulus moneter diperkirakan akan membuat kabur dana asing yang parkir di negara berkembang. Walhasil, nilai tukar rupiah diperkirakan terus melemah karena defisit neraca berjalan membengkak dan ujung-ujungnya IHSG terus terkoreksi.

Pada perdagangan hari ini, Selasa, 20 Agustus 2013, IHSG akan berada pada level support 4285-4310 dan resistance4430-4455. Reza mengatakan gejolak IHSG bisa mereda jika pelaku pasar tidak terlalu panik dengan kondisi saat ini. "Terutama ada kecenderungan aksi beli dengan memanfaatkan rendahnya harga saham,” katanya. 

Seperti diketahui, pada perdagangan Senin, 19 Agustus 2013, IHSG ambles 255,14 poin atau 5,58 persen ke level 4.315,52. Pada saat yang bersamaan, nilai tukar rupiah juga sudah mencapai 10.500 per dolar Amerika Serikat sehingga investor terangsang untuk melakukan tekanan jual.

Saturday, August 06, 2011

Carson Block, Andrew Left, John Hempton, John Bird, Rick Pearson to expose accounting fraud of Chinese companies

I found the article below is very interesting and useful because it tells me about the accounting shenanigans of some Chinese companies listed in the US and Canada stock market. In my opinion, if anyone of you are interested in investing in Chinese companies, you have to be careful due to the fact that those companies are fraudster.  They run 'ponzi-scheme" business. I was thinking that the same practice also has been done by Indonesia companies listed in Bursa Efek.

So, I think we need those kind of the "shorts" who will be able to expose the accounting fraud of  any companies listed in Bursa Efek, both in Jakarta or Surabaya.What I mean with the "shorts" refers to the five people whom Reuters has identified as the players to successfully expose the wrongdoings of Chinese companies made.Who are they? They are :

1. Carson Block  (

2. Andrew Left (

3.John Hempton (

4. John Bird (

5. Rick Pearson ( )

You can read more about their info below.

Special report: The "shorts" who popped a China bubble - Yahoo! News


They are a rag-tag bunch, often working from home or tiny offices scattered round the world, from rural Texas to Beverly Hills and a suburb near Australia's Bondi Beach.

Some have never even been to China; most don't speak or read Chinese. And yet in the past nine months, this small group of "short sellers" has published research exposing accounting fraud at a series of Chinese companies listed in the United States and Canada, and made as yet unproven allegations against a whole bunch more.

As a result they have scuttled a once hot sub-sector of the American capital markets.

In a number of cases they claim to have made a killing by shorting those stocks - placing a bet that the shares would fall in value - before publishing the research. They insist they operate independently but are clearly influenced by one another's ideas and tactics.

Altogether, they have been the catalyst that has wiped more than $21 billion off the market value of Chinese companies listed in North America. The sell-off has led to big losses for some very prominent investors, including hedge fund manager John Paulson and former AIG CEO Maurice "Hank" Greenberg.

In the aftermath, a series of companies have been delisted by U.S. exchanges, auditors have quit at a number of others, investors are filing class action lawsuits, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is pursuing investigations.

To their supporters, the short sellers are doing the regulators' work for them by exposing fraud. They argue that many of these companies, which are often legally domiciled in offshore havens such as the Cayman Islands, should never have been allowed to list in America in the first place.

To their detractors, the short sellers have leveraged a handful of correct calls on accounting shenanigans into a campaign that has tainted many legitimate Chinese companies. Some accuse them of conspiring with big hedge funds to take short positions before they publish their research.

Many have jumped into the Chinese short selling game; Reuters has identified the five below as among the most prominent players.

CARSON BLOCK AGE: 35 LOCATIONS: Hong Kong and the U.S. West Coast WEBSITE:

Carson Block has been punching above his weight in China, judging by the impact of the reports issued by his firm, where he is the only full-time employee.

Toronto-listed Chinese timber company Sino-Forest Corp, perhaps the largest target for short-sellers, has lost more than 60 percent of its value, or more than $2.5 billion, since Block accused the company of a massive fraud in early June.

His published research has also sparked plunges in shares of the following companies: Orient Paper, RINO International, China MediaExpress and Duoyuan Global Water. He also issued an open letter to the CEO of Spreadtrum Communications, citing concerns about its financial reports, though the stock has recovered from an initial dive.

About $1.7 billion has been wiped off of the aggregate market value of these U.S.-listed companies since the reports from his firm, whose name stems from the Chinese proverb, "muddy waters make it easy to catch fish."

Before starting Muddy Waters, Block ran a Shanghai-based self-storage company called "Love Box Storage." He previously worked as an attorney at Jones Day in Shanghai and as an adjunct professor at Chicago-Kent College of Law.

His lack of a Wall Street track record has been questioned by his critics. Block, who still owns Love Box but isn't involved in day-to-day operations, says these experiences "gave me a trench level view of business in China" where he "learned about the good, the bad and the ugly."

Block says his interest in shorting Chinese stocks came after his father, Bill, president of W.A.B. Capital - which introduces small, public Chinese companies to institutional investors - asked him to examine Orient Paper for a possible investment on the long side.

The report brought a great deal of attention to Muddy Waters, and Block received tips for new companies to focus on. Orient Paper said an internal probe didn't find any fraud, but in March it said it would re-audit its fiscal 2008 results. The stock trades well below pre-report levels.

"We realized the company was a complete fraud, and I assumed at the time that there would be other likely frauds out there," Carson Block said. "I didn't have a business plan in mind when I set up Muddy Waters and wrote the report; I just figured I'd see what happened next."

Block's firm currently only takes short positions, bets that a stock will fall in price, though Block has said he may go long in the future. He declined to disclose how much the firm has in assets under management.

Block says he sends experts into China to examine factories and offices to confirm company claims, with Block often attending. He uses legal and accounting consultants as well as private investigators in his work.

The research gets posted on the firm's website. Some have accused Block of acting unethically by sending research to hedge funds, for a fee, before it is published. Block declined to comment, but his research notes contain a disclaimer that says investors should assume Block, his "clients and/or investors" already have short positions in the subject of the report.

Block says his success has made him and his wife a target for threats. He recently moved his main base to the West Coast - though he won't say exactly where - from Hong Kong. Block had already increased security measures, including removing the Muddy Waters phone number from its website. (The firm used to list a false address to increase its camouflage, a move that drew brickbats from its critics.) "I felt that the sort of attention I was getting wasn't the kind we want," he said.


John Hempton looks more like the public servant he used to be rather than the millionaire hedge-fund manager he has become, dressed in an olive cable-knit sweater over collared shirt and tie, jeans, docksiders and large, round spectacles.

He is reading a book on his Kindle at a beachside cafe near his home in Bronte, an affluent seaside suburb on Sydney's eastern shore. He had cycled from his home on a hybrid electric bike. His wife drives a 14-year-old car. An economics graduate, he started his career in Australia's Treasury department trying to unravel tax-avoidance schemes.

"I really do understand fraud and esoteric accounting issues, and strangely enough that comes from my days at Treasury," he said. "I was given all the gnarly avoidance problems ... I cut my teeth on stuff that was deliberately complex and a little nasty. It was a good place to learn how nasty accounting works."

Hempton said he had "semi-retired" at the age of 39, after making a personal fortune on the flotation of fund management firm Platinum Asset Management, where he was a junior partner and analyst covering financial, media and utilities stocks. He says he once managed A$20 billion (US$21.15 billion) in investments.

He started his new career by writing a blog on his favorite topic: the sickness at the heart of international banks.

Hempton then struck up a partnership with an old friend, Simon Maher, formerly the head of an Australian utility. They formed Bronte Capital with a small office near the famous Bondi Beach, and initially managed their own money.

After spotting his first alleged China fraud - Universal Travel Group - Hempton says there was no turning back.

"They are so obvious that this is like shooting fish in a barrel. It's not going to remain that way. We are already finding it's tougher to find them in the U.S., and the ones that are really obvious are already mostly exposed. We are looking a little in Hong Kong now."

He has written on a series of Chinese stocks that have blown up: Universal Travel Group, China Agritech, Longtop Financial Technologies, and China Media Express. His latest target is Hollysys Automation Technologies, which hit a 52-week low on Thursday.

On a recent holiday at a Thai beach resort, Hempton says he took along the accounts of financial software company Longtop Financial - which is now in the process of being delisted from the New York Stock Exchange - instead of a novel.

"I spent a very enjoyable week on the beach, drinking pina coladas and reading Longtop's accounts."

He wouldn't provide data on the size of gains or losses.

Hempton often wakes around 5:30 a.m. local time to catch the New York market close. In the summer he's often surfing or hiking during the day.

Bronte Capital holds short positions in about 50 names, a mixture of shares from China and elsewhere.

"Do we do this, that is, shorting Chinese stocks, all the time? No. But here we have seen a bundle of names with a market cap in the $300 million to $400 million range. There were so many of them, stupid frauds that were easy to see," Hempton said.


John Bird does not speak Chinese, has never been to China and expresses little interest in going. Instead, he makes his bets against Chinese small-cap stocks from his 130-acre home in the Texas countryside outside of Austin where he lives with his wife of nearly 40 years and a dozen Arabian horses.

Despite his lack of direct knowledge of China, Bird is confident there is widespread fraud, and said recently that for those shorting Chinese stocks, "this is harvest time".

A little under a third of Bird's active portfolio is in short positions. He said he began shorting Chinese stocks in 2009 after seeing a note from veteran short seller Manuel Asensio saying that drugs company China Sky One Medical Inc might have problems.

China Sky, which he started to look at in spring 2009, is one of his most notable positions. He has sued the company's auditor for not acting on information that China Sky's financials might contain errors.

"It's not a matter of whether they are fraudulent companies, it's just a matter of who they are cheating," Bird told a conference in June. As a joke, he passed out a children's' toy - a Chinese finger trap -- to everyone in the audience. The trick of the toy is that it's easy to put your fingers into the trap's woven cylinder but it's much more difficult to pull them out.

Bird is long on some oil, gas and pipeline stocks but said he never goes long on Chinese companies. At 62, the white-haired investor has had years of financial experience - and his share of flops.

Public filings show several state tax liens and state tax lien releases against properties Bird owned in Texas. He describes the liens as "collateral damage" to his mid-1980s bankruptcy that came about because of a property bust.

Bird declines to describe the nature of the businesses he was associated with. Public records show companies with names like "Wishlist", "Magnetic Clone" and "Golden Fried Chicken of America". He says he was a "junior league venture capitalist" who gave money to people with good ideas.

Bird and other investors have been urging the SEC to compare reports filed with the SEC in the U.S. with those filed with the State Administration for Industry & Commerce in China. Bird says discrepancies in these documents are a good place to start looking for trouble.

Bird says he currently has about 30 short positions worth around $10 million targeting Chinese stocks. Those have recently included Harbin Electric Inc, China-Biotics Inc and Deer Consumer Products Inc.

He, too, says he gets threats via e-mail and message boards. "You get a little bit thick-skinned," he says.

While Bird says he is in touch with other short sellers, he denies they work together. "The idea of trying to picture us as a cabal is crazy," he said. "The short sellers end up trading notes, but we are all independently running our own money, because quite honestly we don't trust anybody else, including other short sellers -- in particular other short sellers."


Andrew Left has come a long way from a shuttered Florida-based commodities brokerage to making waves and money highlighting accounting inconsistencies at Chinese companies with listings in the U.S.

Left was broke and living with his family after college and answered an ad offering the chance to make $100,000 a year for a commodities brokerage called Universal Commodity Corp.

"They give you a phone and a script and some lead cards...and I'm like 'Really?'" he said. "I didn't know what a boiler room was when I was 23," he said, using the term for a high-pressure brokerage firm where salespeople cold call individuals and push questionable investments.

Left departed after 9 months, in March 1994. The Florida firm was cited in December 1995 by the National Futures Association for failure to supervise employees engaged in fraudulent practices. Left was sanctioned by the NFA as part of a wider probe into the firm. The firm was closed down in December 2008 after another infraction, the NFA says.

Left devoted himself to the late 1990s IPO boom, later switching to shorting the stocks at a friend's suggestion. "It was like a friggin' light bulb went off in my head," he said.

About 10 years ago he started writing about his research on a website called Stocklemon, later renamed Citron Research.

"Pretty much the main theme of Citron is to encourage investors to use their brains. Don't listen to an analyst all the time. Don't listen to the company. Does it make sense to you? Do your homework. And that is pretty much it," he said.

Left says he does not sell his research nor work for a hedge fund. He describes himself as an independent investor, not just a short-seller.

He's written about Chinese reverse takeover stocks for the last four years, though he's never been to China except for a couple of days in Hong Kong a decade ago.

"Lately the action has been in China. Two years from now I doubt I'll be writing about Chinese stocks anymore," he said.

In the meantime, he's hired a Chinese-speaking finance PhD. student from UCLA, to translate, read documents and make phone calls. He also hires investigators in China.

Of his Chinese positions, his biggest loser was New Oriental Education. "I wrote about it, shorted it and realized I was wrong, so I got out very quickly. It is up 100 percent since then," he said.

Left, who grew up in a Detroit suburb, won't discuss his net worth, saying only that he lives "in a nice house" in Beverly Hills.

Dressed in grey golf pants, white shirt and sockless sneakers, Left was recently in New York meeting hedge funds to talk about how they missed the dubious business practices at these U.S.-listed Chinese companies.

On the China-related shares, he published on a number of companies, including China-Biotics, China MediaExpress Holdings, Deer Consumer Products, Longtop Financial Technologies and Harbin Electric.

Harbin was hit after his reports on the viability of a loan agreement for a pending buyout. Shares recovered following his report, yet it still trades well below the $24 buyout offer price. He hasn't backed away from his position on Harbin, he said.

He says his best trade wasn't a short position and had nothing to do with China. At the depths of the market downturn in April 2009 he went long U.S. banks.

"It was the end of the world and I decided to take my daughter to Disneyland... The world was going to hell on CNBC and I'm waiting on line, not even for a ride," he said.

Seeing how crowded Disney was convinced him the economy wasn't so terrible. He returned home and covered his short bets, then went long by shorting the ProShares UltraShort Financials ETF-- a leveraged short play on financial stocks.

"(I) loaded up on things like that and just held on. Thank you Disneyland!"

To watch an interview with Andrew Left:


Rick Pearson is one China specialist who actually knows the country: He studied finance and Mandarin at the University of Southern California and began traveling to China in the early 1990s, spending six years there all told.

He says he his familiarity with the country has been a double-edged sword: It helped him gain access to factories and management, but the closeness may have made him too credulous.

The former Deutsche Bank convertible bonds banker, who is currently living in Beijing, says he lost a lot of money on long positions in Chinese stocks. He won't say exactly how much, but described his long position in Orient Paper Inc as particularly "painful."

He was long when Muddy Waters released a report on the company. He then bought more shares because he thought the report was wrong only to see the stock plunge further.

After that experience, Pearson grew more critical of Chinese companies and disclosed short positions in China-Biotics, China ShenZhou Mining, Gulf Resources, Harbin Electric and Longtop Financial in an occasional column he writes for

Pearson said in June he began to realize that some Chinese stocks were "a giant Ponzi scheme."

Still, Pearson resists being grouped with other shorts, arguing he would rather be long Chinese stocks and expressing concern that the moniker will impede his access in China.

He says he thinks the China small-cap short trade may be close to an end as a viable strategy. "There's too many stocks whose share prices are already too low. There's too many stocks that have already been attacked by people. In my opinion it doesn't necessarily make a lot of sense to go shorting a $3 stock."

Pearson recently got out of all of his investments - he had some long positions in Chinese Internet stocks - because of concerns about the U.S. debt ceiling debate.

His intelligence-gathering methods are varied: taking people for coffee or karaoke, ferreting out executives' cell phone numbers, contacting sales representatives through Chinese e-commerce site Alibaba, and coming back to visit factories at unscheduled times. Pearson also counts employees and the number of vehicles in parking lots, looks at the age and condition of factory equipment and contacts customers and checks information in SEC filings with a company's China staff.

Pearson said he does not work with other investors, but he does occasionally keep in touch. One of the things that he says he learned from Texas-based short seller John Bird is the importance of filings with the Chinese authorities. When Pearson showed up to meet Bird for what he said was the first time in Los Angeles in June, he came wearing a T-shirt that stated, "John Bird was right."

(Reporting by Daniel Bases, Ryan Vlastelica and Clare Baldwin in New York; Mark Bendeich in Sydney; Editing by David Gaffen, Martin Howell)


Friday, July 15, 2011

IPO Air Asia..Will you buy its shares?

JPNN.COM : AirAsia Listing Pengujung 2011


PT Indonesia Air Asia (IAA) berencana go public lewat mekanisme penawaran saham perdana (initial public offering/IPO) pada kuartal empat 2011. Maskapai penerbangan dengan biaya rendah (low cost carrier/LCC) itu, membidik dana taktis senilai USD 150-200 juta, dengan skema pelepasan saham hingga 20 persen.

Namun, sebelum IPO itu geber, perseroan bakal terlebih dahulu menyatukan kepemilikan saham domestik, yang kini terpecah menjadi satu. Kepemilikan domestik menjadi satu sebesar 51 persen dan asing 49 persen. Setelah IPO, masing-masing akan terdilusi dengan sendirinya. ”Beberapa yang terdilusi, masih dalam kajian,” tutur Dharmadi, Presiden Direktur IAA, di Jakarta.

Saat ini, 51 persen saham IAA dimiliki lokal terbagi dalam tiga pihak, yaitu: PT Langit biru 21 persen, Pin Harris 20 persen, dan PT Fersindo Nusaperkasa 10 persen. Sehingga tidak bisa melebihi kepemilikan 49 persen saham oleh AA International Limited (AAIL), anak usaha dari AirAsia Berhad Malaysia. Mengenai kajian penggabungan lebih lanjut, klaim manajemen masih dalam kajian. Termasuk kajian mengenai proses IPO. Untuk keperluan itu, perseroan telah menunjuk dua penjamin emisi, yaitu Creddit Suisse dan CIMB Niaga Securities. Keduanya diputuskan setelah melakukan beauty contest (seleksi), pada Februari lalu.
Dharmadi melanjutkan, IPO merupakan bagian rencana perseroan untuk meningkatkan permodalan serta mendukung rencana ekspansi dimasa mendatang. Dana itu nantinya akan dipakai untuk pembelian sejumlah pesawat baru dan juga modal kerja. Selain menambah modal, IPO juga akan membuka kesempatan masyarakat serta karyawan perusahaan memiliki saham IAA. “Kami perlu dipandang sebagai bagian dari Indonesia,” imbuhnya.

Dari dana segar senilai USD 150-200 juta itu, perseroan akan membeli armada sebanyak lima pesawat baru jenis Airbus A320. Armada itu dibutuhkan, sesuai dengan konsep low cost carrier, yang akan mengangkut banyak penumpang dengan biaya bahan baker cost of fuel  yang sama.
Saat ini IAA memiliki 20 pesawat sewa jenis airbus, dimana 16 diantaranya beroperasi. Nantinya, perseroan mengharapkan bisa memiliki 30 pesawat jenis airbus pada 2015. Untuk pembelian, akan dilakukan secara bertahap. Manajemen mengharapkan bisa mendapat bagus dengan harga murah. Dalam membeli pesawat, manajemen menerapkan strategi tersendiri yaitu mengunci (lock) harga pada saat penandatanganan perjanjian. Pesawat yang dibeli pun tidak full option.

Dengan tambahan armada itu, perseroan mengharapkan kinerja akan bertumbuh seiring banyaknya penumpang serta rute yang ditempuh. Pada tahun 2010, kinerja perseroan meningkat pesat. Di mana pendapatan tercatat Rp 2,76 triliun naik 39 persen dari 2009, sementara laba bersih mencapai Rp 474 miliar naik lebih dari 351 persen dibanding tahun sebelumnya.

Lonjakan keuntungan itu, disebabkan peralihan pesawat yang dilakukan perseroan. Tahun lalu, IAA melakukan pergantian beberapa pesawat dari  jenis 737 yang hanya memiliki 148 penumpang ke airbus, yang mampu mengangkut 184 penumpang. Nah, tahun ini, IAA menargetkan bisa mencapai pendapatan sebesar Rp 3,3 triliun, sementara laba diharap menembus level Rp 500 miliar. “Itu didukung kenaikan jumlah penumpang, yang kami harap mencapai 4,5 juta penumpang,” tukas Dharmadi.

Analis PT Anugerah Securindo Indah, Viviet S Putri menilai, IAA memiliki prospek sangat bagus. Baik secara industri maupun pengelolaan manajemen. Melihat kinerja IAA positif, dengan pertumbuhan laba yang baik didukung efisiensi perseroan. “Manajemen mampu menekan biaya yang tidak perlu dikeluarkan untuk industri penerbangan. Di samping kemampuan menambah pendapatan, melalui ancillary,” ulas Viviet. (far)


Thursday, July 07, 2011

Apa itu Cum Date?

I was googling the meaning of cum date and found this definition from a blog via gunadarma. It is "tanggal yang menunjukkan bahwa sampai dengan tanggal tersebut perdagangan atas suatu saham masih mengandung/dengan hak (dividen,right,saham bonus,dividen saham. It means that when we buy shares along this cumd ate, we have rights to get a dividend.

here are some from (

Pertanyaannya apakah semua emiten pasti membagikan dividen? Apa perlunya dividen bagi investor? Bagaimana jika emiten tidak membagikan dividen? Apakah perusahaan yang tidak membagi dividen berarti perusahaan itu tidak sehat, dan sebaliknya perusahaan yang membagi dividen merupakan perusahaan sehat?

Untuk menjawab pertanyaan tersebut harus disimak betul bagaimana historical performance dan progres ke depan dari emiten yang bersangkutan. Hal tersebut untuk mengetahui mengapa perusahaan membagi dividen dan mengapa tidak membagi dividen. Setiap investor yang membeli saham di pasar, paling tidak ada dua ekspektasi yang melekat. Pertama, investor berharap harga saham yang dibelinya naik sehingga bisa menikmati capital gain. Ekspektasi kedua, investor berharap mendapat dividen dari perusahaan atau emiten.

Dari sini tampak, bahwa dividen menjadi salah satu pertimbangan investor dalam memutuskan pembelian saham. Namun, di atas kertas sebenarnya membagi atau tidak membagi dividen tidaklah berbeda. Mari kita ikuti ilustrasi emiten yang membagi dividen dengan emiten yang tidak membagi dividen.

Bagi emiten yang membagi dividen. Harus dipahami bahwa sumber dana untuk dividen berasal dari laba emiten yang merupakan aset perusahaan (current asset). Jika emiten memiliki saham sebanyak satu miliar lembar dan memutuskan untuk membagi dividen Rp25 per saham, berarti total nilai dividen yang dibagi ke pemegang saham berjumlah Rp25 miliar. Artinya, nilai aset perusahaan akan berkurang sebesar Rp25 miliar.

Di satu sisi pemegang saham mendapatkan uang tunai Rp25 per saham, disisi lain aset perusahaan berkurang sebesar Rp25 per saham. Nah, penurunan nilai aset perusahaan ini umumnya akan tercermin pada penurunan harga saham di bursa. Makanya apabila diperhatikan setiap kali cum date (batas akhir perdagangan bagi pemegang saham yang berhak atas dividen), esok harinya harga saham akan turun. Besarnya penurunan ini biasanya setara dengan nilai dividen yang akan dibagikan. Jika nilai dividen yang akan dibagi Rp25 per saham, maka penurunan harga juga akan terjadi sebesar itu. Penurunan harga saham akibat pembagian dividen ini lebih dikenal dengan istilah dividen effect.

Ilustrasi yang sama berlaku bagi perusahaan yang tidak membagikan dividen. Emiten yang tidak membagi dividen (meskipun berhasil membukukan laba) berarti seluruh keuntungan menjadi laba ditahan dan menambah aset likuid perusahaan. Dengan tambahan laba ditahan, perusahaan memiliki sumber dana sendiri yang lebih kuat untuk kebutuhan ekspansi. Harga saham di bursa tidak akan terkena dividen effect. Artinya, bagi perusahaan yang tidak membagikan dividen tidak akan terjadi penurunan harga akibat pembagian dividen.

Dari sini tampak bahwa di atas kertas ada atau tidak ada dividen, sebenarnya bagi investor tidak ada bedanya. Meski begitu, tetap saja dividen mempunyai arti penting dan strategis bagi perusahaan dan investor. Dari kacamata perusahaan, adanya pembagian dividen yang konsisten setiap tahun menunjukkan keberhasilan manajemen dalam menjalankan perusahaan sekaligus menunjukkan stabilnya cash flow perusahaan. Pada gilirannya hal ini akan menumbuhkan dan meningkatkan kepercayaan investor terhadap perusahaan.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Invest like Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett is the world's third richest man with an estimated fortune of over $52bn.

Warren Buffett
Expert investor: Warren Buffett

But unlike the other billionaires that feature in Forbes' list of the 10 richest people in the world, Buffett doesn't have a retail empire, an oil well or a brain for computing to show for it – simply a lot of share certificates.

The 76-year-old made his money through identifying companies that he believed were worth more than their market value, investing in them and holding that investment for the long-term. And it's certainly paid off.

Class A shares in his company Berkshire Hathaway were $15 when he first took over in 1965 – today they are valued at $109,800 per share.

It sounds remarkably simple, but given the ups and downs of the stock market, it takes a high level of discipline, nerve and conviction in your decisions. Although Buffett has never written a book detailing his investment style, much can be gleaned from the annual letter he sends to Berkshire shareholders.

He doesn't view the purchase of shares in a company as buying a stake in that business, but believes that the investor should feel that they are actually buying that business outright. Because of that he looks for quality management, a durable competitive edge and low capital expenditure.

Companies tend to have a strong brand name – Coca Cola, McDonalds and Gillette feature in his holdings – and a good history of solid earnings growth. We run through how Buffett invests his money.

'Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.'

Value investing

'It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.'

The basic premise of Buffett's investing style is buying something for less than it's actually worth. This sounds simple enough, but unearthing these stocks and prove difficult and it's easy to mistake a company that is unloved by the market because nobody has spotted its opportunity with one that is simply a dog. For that reason, Buffett applies some of the measures that are listed below.

Read a review of Warren Buffett's official biography, The Snowball, and buy the book for £16.25 (RRP £25) from This is Money's book shop

Strong profitability

'If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.'

Buffett prefers to invest in companies with a proven level of strong profitability, giving more credence to this than what analysts predict will happen in the future. He looks at a number of measures to assess a business's profitability, including return on equity (ROE), return on invested capital (ROIC) and a company's profit margin.

ROE is a measure of the rate at which shareholders are earning income on their shares and Buffett uses this measure to see how well a company is performing compared to other businesses operating in the same sector. You can calculate the ROE by dividing the company's net income by the shareholder's equity. It is believed that Buffett prefers a company that has an ROE in excess of 15%. He also looks for companies with above average profit margins, which can be calculated by dividing net income by net sales. The higher the ratio, the more profitable the company based on its level of sales.

Not too much in debt

'Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.'

However, a company with a high ROE could be being fuelled by substantial levels of debt, which Buffett is keen to avoid. For this reason he also takes into accounted the ROIC. This helps take debt out of the equation by adding it back to the shareholder equity before doing the calculation. This can be calculated by dividing a company's total liabilities by its shareholder equity – the higher the ratio, the higher the level of debt the company is using to fuel its growth.

He doesn't like over-indebted companies, as he says each year in his Berkshire Hathaway letters, because they could become vulnerable in a credit squeeze or when interest rates are rising, as they have been doing recently.

Understanding the business

'Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.'

Buffett will only invest in businesses he can understand and analyse, rejecting those that operate in complicated markets or where he is unsure of their operating model. He describes this as his 'circle of competence'. He has largely ignored the technology sector because he claims not to fully understand their business, but prefers retailing, food and insurance stocks.

Strong management

'It's better to hang out with people better than you, ... Pick out associates whose behaviour is better than yours and you'll drift in that direction.'

Buffett places great emphasis on the quality of a company's management. According to Robert Hagstrom, author of 'The Warren Buffett Way', he asks three questions of a company's management team – are they rational, do they admit to mistakes and do they resist the institutional imperative? He takes a dim view of management teams that simply follow the crowd, copying the lead of competitors. He also likes companies to have been floated for a 10-year period before investing, but says he never interferes with the running of a company.

The 'Moat'

'Your premium brand had better be delivering something special, or it's not going to get the business.'

Buffett coined the phrase 'moat' to refer to the competitive advantage or unique proposition that gives a business protection against their competitors. He says those businesses that have a wider moat will offer more protection to the main core business, which he refers to as the castle. This could be geographical, entry costs, a strong brand name or owning a particular patent. Buffett tends to pick companies that offer strong brand names, even though there is a lot of competition in their particular markets. Examples include MacDonalds, Coca-Cola and Gillette.

Moats are important to investors because if a business develops a successful product it is likely to be aped by competitors. How effecitively it can survive is largely determined by how its product differs from the others in the market and why consumers will keep coming back.

Long-term hold

'Our favourite holding period is forever.'

When Buffett buys a stock he buys it with the view of holding it for life. He holds a number of permanent stocks in his portfolio, including Coca-Cola, GEICO and Washington Post, which he claims he'll not sell even if they appear to be significantly overpriced. This approach has led to accusations that his portfolio has a number of 'tired' stocks in it, but Buffett thinks investors are too quick to buy and sell.

Don't rush

'You do things when the opportunities come along. I've had periods in my life when I've had a bundle of ideas come along, and I've had long dry spells. If I get an idea next week, I'll do something. If not, I won't do a damn thing.'

Boredom can cause rash buying decisions, forcing the investor to buy stock at the wrong time. Buffett has proved to be a master at the waiting game, preferring to sit on his cash rather than buy into a company just for the sake of it. He understands markets rise and fall and would prefer to wait until he feels a stock is cheap enough to buy. Buffett says investors would be better off if they could only invest a limited number of times, so they would make sure they were making the right investment.

Five mistakes made by investors (and their advisers)

 | This is Money
Top five investment mistakes:

1. Over confidence

This is the most obvious error an investor can make. For evidence of the impact, you need only look at the recent sorry episode of the credit crunch. The greatest minds in the Square Mile and on Wall Street believed they had invented a new risk-free way of trading debt to generate colossal profits. It was, of course, total nonsense and taxpayers picked up the cost and global recession followed. But this over-confidence is not a new phenomenon. Countless financial disasters have occurred as a result of over-excited men in suits believing 'this time it's different'.

Over-confidence is prevalent. Blake points to research that asked FTSE 100 management teams to grade their performance; they all put themselves in the top 25%.

How it will affect you: Misplaced self-belief can wreak havoc with your portfolio. One example is that you will look at past investment calls and put a shrewd stock selection or fund exit timing down to your superior skills. It is more likely that you simply got lucky. Keep your achievements in perspective.

2. Doing too much

Goalkeepers are told that if they stand still for a penalty kick, statistically, they have a 33% chance of saving it; but only 6% stand still. Why? Because, egged on by the crowd, they can't be seen to be doing nothing.

IFAs want to be seen to be doing something. Small investors making their own calls can also fall victim to this 'activity bias'.

How it will affect you: The costly manifestation of this is trading too much and trying to call the market by entering and exiting too frequently. You can miss rallies and share dealing always incur charges, pushing up your overall costs.

3. Selling winning investments and holding losers

It is all too easy to forget your original reasons for investing and the promises you made to yourself about the risks you would take. It is the so-called 'loss aversion', a distortion that means investors are happy to take big risks when they face a loss but lose their nerve when they're in profit. Vanguard's Blake says: 'Clients become more risk averse when a stock rises and want to lock-in the gain, so they sell early.'

How it will affect you: This will take large chunks out of the potential profits, unless you control it. So how do you do that? Fight the compulsion to 'get back to break even' – veterans of the dotcom wipeout in the Noughties will tell that it may never happen. And keep sight of your original reasons for investing: do they still apply?

4. Home bias

Traditionally, IFAs recommended sticking it what you know best. So they encouraged investors to put most of your money into UK investments.

But the best performing emerging markets have left developed economies in the shade in recent years. And prospects for some of these economies are, arguably, far better than for our own: low government and consumer debts and favourable demographics in stark contrast to our own bulging borrowings and ageing population.

But remember that emerging markets have, historically, been volatile. You may also want to consider backing other developed market economies. Japan, for example, is sometimes suggested as an opportunity because its market trades very cheaply – although commentators have been predicting the sun to rise in Japan for more than a decade.

Behavioural finance warns investors to be aware of their own 'home bias'.

How it will affect you: The mainsteam advice was to hold at least 50% of your money in UK investments. That may be still right for some. The good news is that this isn't a sub-conscious decision. Most fund platforms offer a tool that will crunch your portfolio and show a geographical spread of your money. This will help you have a discussion with your adviser to at a sensible allocation that suits your attitude to risk. Blake says: 'Advisers should caution clients that familiarity is not a substitute for a good spread of investments.'

5. Other biases: 'Anchoring', 'familiarity' and more

A bias based on geography is not the only mistake you should watch out for. 'Anchoring' is investors linking decisions to irrelevant factors, such as round index levels: 'I'll sell when the FTSE 100 gets to 6000.'

A common mistake is to buy shares based on superficial evidence. An example would be to buy M&S shares because you like their clothes, but without drawing on any other information.

A similar error is to make knee-jerk decision based on scant evidence – known as 'availability evidence – such as selling Japanese investments immediately after the tsunami struck. 'Conservatism bias' can also creep in, where decision-making is based on out-dated wisdom and information. The solution is to keep on gathering and processing as much information as possible before making decisions.

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