Pheu Thai Party marginally ahead of the Democrats

Bangkok Post : Survey predicts tight finish in list election

The latest opinion poll has suggested a tight finish in the party-list election with the Pheu Thai Party marginally ahead of the Democrats.

According to the findings of the Abac Poll, Pheu Thai would bag 55 seats while the Democrats would win 49 out of the 125 seats in the party-list system.

The Bhumjaithai Party would win eight seats while Chart Pattana Puea Pandin would get four.

The remaining nine seats would be split among smaller parties, particularly Rak Thailand, Rak Santi, Matubhum and Chartthaipattana. The findings of the survey which focused on the party-list contest came from 5,349 respondents in 28 provinces in all regions from June 1-21.

Based on the survey, if the election was to be held today, it would see a turnout of 76.2%, or about 36 million people. About 47.3 million people are eligible to vote.

Also based on the survey, it can be estimated that about 70%, or some 25 million people had decided which party to vote for, compared with 10.8 million undecided voters.

Of the estimated 36 million voters who intended to cast their ballots, about 5% would not cast their votes for any political party.

Abac Poll director Noppadon Kannika said it was likely that undecided voters would be the crucial factor in the end.

"It depends on them _ on how they reflect on the political situation," Mr Noppadon said. "Will they make decisions based on the information of the past few months or go further back to the days when the country was in ruins from political chaos?"