If the Democrats lose Bangkok, they lose everything

Abhisit Says Thai Vote a Chance to Remove ‘Venom’ of Thaksin - Businessweek

Abhisit’s party won 27 of 36 Bangkok seats in the 2007 election in finishing second to Thaksin’s allies. Two years earlier, Thaksin’s party had claimed 32 of 37 seats in the capital in a landslide victory that saw it control 75 percent of the Parliament.

“If the Democrats lose Bangkok, they lose everything,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute for Strategic and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. Moves to highlight Thaksin’s wealth, jail sentence and last year’s protests that led to arson attacks represent “a one-upmanship from the Democrat party aimed to turn the tide in Bangkok,” he said.

No ‘Policy for Amnesty’

Yingluck, in a June 8 interview, said “amnesty will not be special for himself but will be equal with everyone,” referring to her brother. “We have to sit down and talk together how we can make Thailand move forward.”

Pheu Thai “doesn’t have a policy for amnesty,” party member Yongyuth Wichaidit said during a debate with Abhisit earlier yesterday in Bangkok. “Pheu Thai will not interfere in the process. There is still a lot of misunderstanding about amnesty.”

The benchmark SET Index has fallen 5.8 percent this month, Asia’s second worst performer behind Hong Kong. The baht has lost 0.7 percent in that time.

Of the 500 parliamentary seats up for grabs next month, 375 are chosen in districts and 125 through proportional representation. Pheu Thai held a 17-point lead against Abhisit’s Democrats for the party list vote, according to a Suan Dusit Rajabhat University poll released on June 19 that surveyed 102,994 people nationwide from June 4 to June 18.

“The probability that Pheu Thai will gain more seats than the Democrats is high,” said Rakpong Chaisuparakul, an analyst with KGI Securities (Thailand) Pcl. “But setting up the government is up to negotiations.”