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Wednesday, August 03, 2011

What Next for Yingluck?

Analysis: Honeymoon over, Yingluck treads political tightrope - Yahoo! News

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Running a real estate business in the middle of a building boom is one thing. Running a country that's embroiled in a bloody political crisis may be a little more challenging, as Thailand's Yingluck Shinawatra is about to discover.

The honeymoon is over for the 44-year-old political novice, about to become Thailand's first female prime minister. Millions of poor supporters expect great things from her, while the country at large wants an end to a political crisis dating back to a coup that toppled her brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, in 2006.

It was thanks to Thaksin that Yingluck was catapulted from relative obscurity as president of SC Asset to stardom within days of her May 16 nomination to lead the campaign of the Puea Thai Party in the July 3 election.

But as she prepares to follow in Thaksin's footsteps after a parliamentary vote on Friday, it is her brother's perceived influence over the incoming government rather than her inexperience that could prove her downfall.

"The degree of her independence (from Thaksin) will determine the degree of acceptance of her," said David Streckfuss, an American academic at Khon Kaen University in northeastern Thailand.

"Because Puea Thai won so convincingly, Thaksin's opponents will have to rethink their plans, so a lot depends on what Thaksin does and whether Yingluck is seen to be in charge."

Thaksin bring out strong emotions on both sides. For his poor supporters, he was seen as the first Thai leader to address the needs of millions in the countryside, with cheap healthcare and village development funds.

For his opponents, he was not only corrupt and authoritarian but had republican leanings -- a charge he has repeatedly denied but one that has tainted him in a country that reveres its king.

Thaksin has made little effort to show he is not pulling the strings and has met ministerial hopefuls in Brunei and Dubai in recent weeks, forcing an embarrassed Yingluck to reject suggestions he will micro-manage her government.

If Thaksin is seen to be running the show from exile, Puea Thai could be in for a rocky ride.

Pro-Thaksin parties have dominated every Thai election in the past decade, but since 2005 each has been hamstrung by street protests, court decisions that have banned their leaders or dissolved them, or military intervention.

Puea Thai's parliamentary clout -- 265 of the 500 seats -- has eased fears of immediate turmoil: the size of the victory makes it highly risky for behind-the-scenes players to engineer judicial or military intervention without a public backlash.

That has been reflected in a jump in the baht since Puea Thai's win and a reversal in the fortunes of the stock market, which went from being Southeast Asia's worst performer in June to its best in July, gaining 8.7 percent with a net $1.2 billion in foreign inflows.

LEGITIMATE CHALLENGE?

Most analysts believe Thaksin's opponents will neither relent nor compromise, but will have to wait for the government to slip up to give a pretext for intervention.

"Yingluck's win was one of the strongest ever in Thai elections so to block her now is not possible," said Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a professor at Bangkok's Thammasat University.

"Any move against this government has to be calculated. They must wait for missteps and mistakes but there must be a legitimate cause, otherwise it would result in turmoil."

What such a cause might be is open to interpretation.

During his two terms in office, Thaksin derived legitimacy from his huge electoral mandates, but those who plotted his overthrow in 2006 justified their actions as a move to rescue the country from entrenched corruption and cronyism.

The weight of expectation will be on Yingluck, not just to deliver on a wave of big-spending, populist policies without damaging the economy but to govern transparently, without the corruption scandals, conflicts of interest and media censorship that critics say characterized Thaksin's governments.

Many politicians, businessmen, police officers and army generals who stuck by Thaksin after he was pushed out might now be expecting promotions, concessions or cabinet portfolios.

The pro-Thaksin "red shirt" movement that battled troops in Bangkok last year has a dozen of its leaders in parliament. Their supporters say some deserve cabinet posts and could withdraw their backing from Yingluck if she does not deliver.

But if she plays along, Bangkok's middle class will be outraged, seeing it as rewarding people who went on a rampage of rioting and arson after their protest was put down last May.

The release on bail on Tuesday of red shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan -- charged with lese-majeste, or offences against the monarchy, but also facing terrorism charges relating to the protests -- is a case in point.

His presence in parliament is provocation enough for some Bangkokians, the suggestion he could become a minister an anathema.

But the biggest test for Yingluck is how she handles the issue of Thaksin's return. He wants to come home without having to serve a two-year jail term for abuse of power, but any early move to give him an amnesty could be political suicide.

Somjai of Thammasat University reckoned Puea Thai would work to ensure political and economic stability and only then draw up plans for a general amnesty to be put to a referendum to ensure it was both legal and accepted by the majority of Thais.

"Thaksin's return is Puea Thai's main agenda, so it wants to tread carefully and first make sure the political climate is right before it pursues an amnesty," he said.

Others believe there will be no right time for his return.

Thaksin is such a divisive figure that any attempt to arrange his homecoming is likely to revive the "yellow shirt" movement that paralyzed the last two governments he controlled.

"I think Thaksin's return would trigger serious unrest, no matter when it comes," said Joshua Kurlantzick, a Southeast Asia specialist at the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations.

 

Visa Credit Card and Surcharge

It is said, Visa prohibit merchants from adding a surcharge to credit card purchases.

However when I paid my hotel bill last month when I stayed in Bali, the merchant The Alit Hotel still added a surcharge amounted  to 3% of the hotel fee. Only The Alit did so. Oher hotels where I also stayed for few days such as The Oasis, didn't do that.

So, Visa how will you explain this matter?

detik Finance : Visa 'Haramkan' Surcharge Dalam Setiap Transaksi Kartu Kredit

PT Visa Worldwide Indonesia (Visa) memastikan tidak ada biaya tambahan alias surcharge di setiap transaksi kartu kredit yang berlogo Visa. Visa memastikan surcharge merupakan hal yang 'haram' dilakukan merchant.

Demikian disampaikan oleh Presiden Direktur Visa Ellyana Fuad ketika ditemui disela acara peluncuran aplikasi m-saku di Plaza Senayan, Sudirman, Jakarta, Selasa (2/8/2011).

"Visa itu menjamin bahwa surcharge tidak diperbolehkan sesuai Peraturan Bank Indonesia (PBI)," jelas Ellyana.

Menurut Ellyana, seluruh nasabah yang memegang kartu kredit berlogo Visa jika berbelanja diseluruh merchant manapun tidak dikenai biaya tambahan.

"Kita menghimbau nasabah bisa menolak jika dibebankan surcharge karena itu tidak boleh dan dilarang BI," terangnya.

Terbitkan Layanan m-saku

Pada kesempatan yang sama Visa bersama pengembang aplikasi Vitta Parama Udaya meluncurkan aplikasi pembayaran melalui telepon genggam pertama di Asia Tenggara.

Presiden Direktur Visa Ellyana Fuad mengatakan saat ini Indonesia memiliki pasar yang sedang berkembang dan semakin terkoneksi.

"Setengah dari jumlah populasi Indonesia berusia dibawah 45 tahun dan lebih dari 80% atau hampir 200 juta orang memiliki telepon genggam," ujar Ellyana.

Pengguna telepon genggam, sambung Ellyana membutuhkan aplikasi untuk pengisian pulsa dan berbelanja dengan cepat. Visa dan Vitta Parama Udaya mengembangkan aplikasi tersebut melalui sebuah program di telepon genggam dengan nama m-saku.

"Nantinya m-saku dapat menawarkan layanan isi ulang pulsa bagi seluruh operator kemudian penawaran harga eksklusif atau hot deals dari merchant yang tergabung dari m-saku. Dan belanja melalui telepon genggam dan fitur pembayaran lainnya," papar Ellyana.

Ditempat yang sama Vice President Bussines Development Vitta Parama Udaya, Hendra mengatakan beberapa merchant yang tergabung dari m-saku antara lain Indomaret, Prudential, TX Travel dan Raja Karcis.

ORI008 : Masa penawaran 7-21 Oktober 2011

If you are interested in buying Indonesia government bonds, note the date of the offering (7-21 Oct). As far as I know, buying ORI is a safe investment. Although, you don't get much return.

detik Finance : Agen Penjual Harus Jualan ORI008 Minimal Rp 100 Miliar

Kementerian Keuangan menargetkan tiap agen penjual bisa menjual obligasi ritel Indonesia (ORI) seri 008 tahun mencapai Rp 100 miliar per agen penjual. Kemudian minimal ada 100 investor yang berpartisipasi di tiap agen.

Demikian disampaikan Direktur Surat Utang Negara Kementerian Keuangan Bhimantara Widyajala dalam sambutan acara penandatanganan perjanjian kerja sama antara Kemenkeu dengan 25 agen penjual ORI 2011, di Graha Sawala, Lapangan Banteng, Jakarta, Rabu (3/8/2011).

"Minimal akan terjual Rp 100 miliar, naik dari tahun lalu Rp 50 miliar. Dengan keterlibatan investor 100. Ini untuk lebih menjangkau investor ritel," ungkapnya.

Ia menambahkan, 25 agen penjual ORI 008 diharapkan dapat melakukan tuugasnya dengan baik. Karena dengan penerbitan obligasi ritel Indonesia 2011 akan semakin memperkuat sistem keuangan di pasar domestik.

"Ini bermanfaat tidak hanya sistem keuangan negara, juga alternatif instrumen investasi kepada investor. Dan ada bonus kepada kita semua, masyarakat luas, yaitu lingkungan," kata Bimantara.

Seperti diketahui ada 25 agen penjual dalam penerbitan obligasi ritel Indonesia tahun ini, diantaranya:

  1. Bank UOB Indonesia
  2. Citibank, N.A
  3. PT ANZ Bank Panin
  4. PT Bank Bukopin Tbk
  5. PT Bank Central Asia Tbk
  6. PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk
  7. PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk
  8. PT Bank Internasional Indonesia Tbk
  9. PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk
  10. PT Bank Mega Tbk
  11. PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk
  12. PT Bank OCBC NISP Tbk
  13. PT Bank Panin Tbk
  14. PT Bank Permata Tbk
  15. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk
  16. PT Ciptadana Securities
  17. PT Danareksa Sekuritas
  18. PT Kresna Graha Securindo
  19. PT Lautandhana Securindo
  20. PT Mega Capital Indonesia
  21. PT Reliance Securities Tbk
  22. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani
  23. PT Trimegah Securities Tbk
  24. Standard Chartered Bank
  25. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Ltd

Bimantara mengutarakan, penerbitan ORI008 ini akan dilakukan pada 26 Oktober 2011.

"Kita harapkan tanggal 26 Oktober bisa diterbitkan dan agen penjual dapat melakukan hal yang baik, seperti tahun sebelumnya. Dan ORI jadi andalan sumber pembiayaan, dan menjadikan negara mandiri dengan pasar domestik semakin berkembang," tegasnya.

Berikut jadwal penerbitan ORI 008 di 2011:

  • Pre Marketing 10 Juni-30 September 2011
  • Penandatanganan Perjanjian kerjasama 3 Agustus 2011
  • Kick Off Meeting 3 Agustus 2011
  • Pemasukkan proposal target penjualan agen penjual ORI 008 dan One on One Meeting 3-4 Oktober 2011
  • Penetapan tingkat kupon oleh Menteri Keuangan 5 Oktober 2011
  • Masa penawaran 7-21 Oktober 2011
  • Penjatahan 24 Oktober 2011
  • Settlement 26 Oktober 2011
  • Pencatatan di BEI 27 Oktober 2011
  • Jatuh Tempo 15 Oktober 2014

 

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

Immigrants in Germany

'Injurious, Defamatory and Polemical': New Book Plunges Germany into Immigration Debate - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

 

DER SPIEGEL

Graphic: Immigrants in Germany

 

cultural assumptions

'Christian terrorist'? Norway case strikes debate - Yahoo! News

 

When the "enemy" is different, an outsider, it's easier to draw quick conclusions, to develop stereotypes. It's simply human nature: There is "us," and there is "them." But what happens when the enemy looks like us — from the same tradition and belief system?

That is the conundrum in the case of Norway and Anders Behring Brevik, who is being called a "Christian extremist" or "Christian terrorist."

As westerners wrestle with such characterizations of the Oslo mass murder suspect, the question arises: Nearly a decade after 9/11 created a widespread suspicion of Muslims based on the actions of a fanatical few, is this what it's like to walk a mile in the shoes of stereotype?

"Absolutely," said Mark Kelly Tyler, pastor of Mother Bethel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Philadelphia. "It clearly puts us in a position where we can't simply say that extreme and violent behavior associated with a religious belief is somehow restricted to Muslim extremists."

"It speaks to cultural assumptions, how we are able to understand something when it (comes from) us," Tyler said. "When one of us does something terrible, we know that's not how we all think, yet we can't see that with other people."

Psychologists say stereotypes come from a deeply human impulse to categorize other people, usually into groups of "us" and "them."

"Our brains are wired that way," said Cheryl Dickter, a psychology professor at the College of William & Mary who studies stereotypes and prejudice.

When Dickter examined brain waves, she found that people process information and pictures about their "us" group differently compared with information about "them" groups. People remembered information better when it reinforced their stereotypes of other groups, she said, and when information didn't fit their stereotype, it was often explained or simply forgotten.

"That's how stereotypes get maintained in the face of all this (contradictory) information," Dickter said.

So during the first reports that someone had detonated a car bomb and then opened fire at a youth camp in Norway, many assumptions clicked into place.

"In all likelihood the attack was launched by part of the jihadist hydra," Thomas Joscelyn, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, wrote within hours on the Weekly Standard website.

The massacre was actually committed, police say, by a blond Norwegian whose photo would not seem out of place in an American college directory. As Breivik's 1,500-page manifesto emerged, calling for violence to rid Europe of non-Christians and those he deemed traitors to Christian Europe, some seized on the religious aspect of his delusions.

Mark Juergensmeyer, editor of the book "Global Religions: An Introduction" and a sociology professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, wrote an essay likening Breivik to Timothy McVeigh, the American who killed 168 people in the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing. It was the deadliest terrorist attack on U.S. soil until 9/11.

McVeigh and Breivik were both "good-looking young Caucasians, self-enlisted soldiers in an imagined cosmic war to save Christendom ... and both were Christian terrorists," Juergensmeyer wrote.

In a column for Salon.com, Alex Pareene said Breivik is not an American-style evangelical, but he listed other connections to Christianity. "All of this says 'Christian terrorist,'" Pareene wrote.

Such claims drew strong resistance. "Breivik is not a Christian. That's impossible. No one believing in Jesus commits mass murder," Bill O'Reilly said on his Fox News show.

That makes sense to Joyce Dubensky, CEO of the Tanenbaum Center for Interreligious Understanding. She said it also makes sense that "millions of Muslims say Osama bin Laden is not a Muslim, that no one who believes in the prophet Muhammad commits mass murder."

"We need to hear Bill O'Reilly, but we also need to hear and understand the voices of the overwhelming Muslim majority around the world who condemn those who are terrorists in the name of their faith," she said.

People have a hard time seeing extremism in their own religion.

For Christians who think of their faith as preaching peace, how to explain the faith-sanctioned killing of the Crusades? For Muslims, what about the thousands of jihadists now following violent interpretations of Islam?

Or consider the Ku Klux Klan's burning crosses. If those were the actions of a misguided minority, shouldn't the same be said of the 19 men who hijacked airliners on 9/11?

Art Markman, a psychology professor at the University of Texas at Austin, said research shows that when people are asked to describe someone else's behavior, they focus on personal characteristics — who that person is. But when asked to describe their own behavior, people focus on their individual situation.

"If you're a Christian and you see this Norway murderer, you say, I have these teachings and I haven't murdered anyone, so the teachings can't be the problem," Markman said. "But if you're talking about the 'other,' it's different. And if you don't know what the actual Muslim teachings are, it seems like a plausible explanation."

Some Christians say they do know the Muslim teachings, and that they are the problem. "There is a lot of text to justify the link between Islam and terrorism," said Michael Youssef, founder of the Evangelical-Anglican Church of the Apostles in Atlanta. "In the Quaranic text, and in the tradition that was written by the followers."

Many Islamic scholars say violent interpretations are wrong, and Youssef acknowledges that. However, "If your role model is Jesus, then nonviolence will be the way you change things. If your role model is somebody who waged war and killed people, then you say, 'I can do that,'" said Youssef, who was born in Egypt to Christian parents.

But Arsalan Iftikhar, an international human rights lawyer and author of the upcoming book "Islamic Pacifism: Global Muslims in the Post-Osama Era," said the Norway attacks "proved that terrorism can be committed by a person of any race, nationality or religion."

Iftikhar, who is Muslim, said one effect of the tragedy would be "to restart a debate on the term terrorism, and who and when the term should be applied."

"Sadly, the last ten years, the term has been co-opted in public discourse and only applies to Muslims," he said. "Now here we have a right-wing Christian extremist who has committed an act of terror, and many people don't know how to react."

 

Desperate, sick Indonesians use railroad 'therapy' :)

This happens due to the government igonarnce of people health care *sigh*

 - Yahoo! News

 

Ignoring the red-and-white danger sign, Sri Mulyati walks slowly to the train tracks outside Indonesia's bustling capital, lies down and stretches her body across the rails.

Like the nearly dozen others lined up along the track, the 50-year-old diabetes patient has all but given up on doctors and can't afford the expensive medicines they prescribe.

In her mind, she has only one option left: electric therapy.

"I'll keep doing this until I'm completely cured," said Mulyati, twitching visibly as an oncoming passenger train sends an extra rush of current racing through her body.

She leaps from tracks as it approaches and then, after the last carriage rattles slowly by, climbs back into position.

Pseudo-medical treatments are wildly popular in many parts of Asia — where rumors about those miraculously cured after touching a magic stone or eating dung from sacred cows can attract hundreds, sometimes thousands.

That may be especially true in Indonesia, where chronic funding shortages and chaotic decentralization efforts since the 1998 ouster of longtime dictator Suharto have left many disillusioned with the state-sponsored health system, said Marius Widjajarta, chairman of the Indonesian Health Consumers Empowerment Foundation.

Medical experts say there is no evidence lying on the rails does any good.

But Mulyati insists it provides more relief for her symptoms — high-blood pressure, sleeplessness and high cholesterol — than any doctor has since she was first diagnosed with diabetes 13 years ago.

She turned to train track therapy last year after hearing a rumor about an ethnic Chinese man who was partially paralyzed by a stroke going to the tracks to kill himself, but instead finding himself cured.

It's a story that's been told and retold in Indonesia.

Until recently, more than 50 people would show up at the Rawa Buaya tracks every day. But the numbers have dropped since police and the state-run railroad company erected a warning sign and threatened penalties of up to three months in prison or fines of $1,800.

No one has been arrested yet, and none of the participants in train track therapy has died.

But the dedicated dozen a day who still come say they have no plans to stop.

"They told us not to do it anymore, but what else can I do," said Hadi Winoto, a 50-year-old stroke victim who has trouble walking.

"I want to be cured, so I have to come back."

 

House OKs debt

When I read that Giffords has returned to work, I somewhat cried reading the news. She is a strong woman.

 

House OKs debt; Giffords brings down the House - Yahoo! News

Crisis legislation to yank the nation past the threat of a historic financial default sped through the House Monday night, breaking weeks of deadlock. The rare moment of cooperation turned celebratory when Rep. Gabrielle Giffords strode in for the first time since she was shot in the head nearly seven months ago.

 

The vote was 269-161, a scant day ahead of the deadline for action. But all eyes were on Giffords, who drew thunderous applause as she walked into the House chamber unannounced and cast her vote in favor of the bill.

 

How Bank Mandiri Rip Off Its Customers

Beda Copet dan Bank Mandiri - DetikForum


Bank Mandiri pertanggal 1 mei 2011 melakukan kebijakan baru yakni, membekukan dana setiap nasabah sebesar Rp.100.000,-. Nasabah tidak dapat menarik simpanannya bila uang tabungannya di bawah nilai minimal yakni Rp. 100.000,-. Atau, Nasabah bila memiliki sisa dana sebesar Rp. 200.000,- maka dana yang bisa ditarik kembali hanyalah sebesar Rp. 100.000,- . Adapun sisa yang Rp. 100.000,- tidak bisa ditarik, dengan alasan seratus ribu adalah nilai batas minimal dana seseorang yang wajib disimpan bila orang itu masih mau disebut sebagai nasabah Bank Mandiri.

Bank Mandiri juga menerapkan kebijakan pendamping yakni, bila seorang nasabah ingin menutup rekeningnya maka wajib baginya membayar Rp. 100.000,-. Atau dengan kata lain, Rp. 100.000,- dana milik nasabah secara otomatis baik ia masih tercatat sebagai nasabah ataupun ia ingin menutup rekening, notabene adalah milik Bank Mandiri. Bank Mandiri bukanlah lembaga copet sebagaimana perkumpulan para tukang copet yang beraksi di Proyek Senen. Bank Mandiri memiliki kebijakan tersendiri dalam meraup uang nasabah tanpa pemberitahuan lebih dahulu, kebijakan ini dinamakan PROSEDURAL.

Bagi nasabah yang tidak cocok dengan kebijakan baru yang berlaku bagi setiap nasabah bahkan yang telah jauh menjadi nasabah sebelum tanggal 1 mei 2011 ini dipersilahkan menutup rekeningnya, tetapi tetap secara Prosedural harus mengganti ongkos tutup buku sebesar Rp.100.000,- yang didebet oleh Bank secara otomatis dari rekening yang hendak ditutupnya.

Bank Mandiri untuk keperluan mengganti biaya administrasi nasabah juga melakukan kebijakan memotong dana yang tersimpan di rekening seseorang secara langsung. Bila rekening itu terlalu sedikit, misalkan Rp. 150.000,- tidak banyak bunga yang dihasilkan untuk menutup biaya administrasi maka dapat diperkirakan dalam 4 (empat) bulan ke depan rekening itu telah tandas atau dana yang tercatat hanyalah sebesar Rp. 0,- (NOL)

Jika begitu, apa bedanya copet (mencuri duit orang lain tanpa izin) dengan Bank Mandiri? Jelas beda! Beberapa perbedaan yang mencolok ;

  1. Copet tidak kenal istilah prosedur, sebaliknya Bank Mandiri bekerja dengan prosedur.
  2. Copet tidak tahu tentang akan banyakkah atau sedikitkah uang yang dicopet, sebaliknya Bank Mandiri memiliki data simpanan dana nasabah.
  3. Copet bertaruh nyawa demi keberhasilan mencopet duit walau hanya sebesar Rp. 10.000,-, Sebaliknya Bank Mandiri semakin jaya bila terkumpul Rp. 100.000,- pernasabah dikalikan dengan sekian juta nasabah yang tercatat, mungkin akan mencapai angka ber Trilyun rupiah. Tentu saja uang Trilyunan ini dapat digunakan semauanya tanpa takut terindikasi uang haram oleh PPATK.
  4. Copet ditiru cara kerjanya oleh orang lain secara terpaksa karena orang yang meniru cara mencari uang para copet pastilah Jobless, sebaliknya ada kemungkinan kebijakan Bank Mandiri akan ditiru oleh Bank- bank besar lainnya dengan sukacita.
  5. Copet mencuri dari saku kemeja orang lain dan ratusan copet telah berurusan dengan kepolisian, sebaliknya Bank Mandiri belum pernah mencopet dan belum pernah ada laporan tentang hal itu di Kepolisian.


Melihat perbandingan diatas tampaklah Bank Mandiri jelas jauh lebih bersih bahkan jauh- jauh lebih profesional dari copet atau jangan pernah berkata, Bank Mandiri adalah copet prosedural, itu jelas sangat tidak etis.

Bersama pemerintah atau partai yang tengah memerintah, Bank Mandiri layak sebagai soko guru perjuangan memajukan ekonomi rakyat dalam upaya menekan jumlah copet nasional, seperti yang tengah diupayakan secara swadaya oleh sebuah toserba yang bisa dilihat pada gambar di bawah ini :

 

Monday, August 01, 2011

Snaptu: Obama strikes deal to end US debt crisis

President urges Congress to get behind proposed legislation agreed with Republican and Democratic Congressional leaders

Barack Obama has reached an agreement with Republican and Democratic congressional leaders aimed at ending the US debt deadlock…


Click here to read the full story

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Sunday, July 31, 2011

Analysis: Answers to the 7 big "what-ifs" of debt default

Analysis: Answers to the 7 big "what-ifs" of debt default - Yahoo! News

The debt negotiations are getting down to the wire. Republican and Democratic lawmakers are scrambling to broker a deal to raise the country's $14.3 trillion debt ceiling before Tuesday, when the Treasury will no longer be able to borrow funds to meet all of its obligations. It all means the United States could face the possibility of defaulting on its debt and losing its prized triple-A credit rating.

 

What does that mean for consumers? Here are some answers we compiled from Reuters Money experts:

1. Should I be worried that I won't receive my Social Security benefit in August?

Perhaps not immediately. Social Security's coffers should be full enough to make the August payments. And cash flow should be positive -- the system generates more from current revenue than it spends on benefits and its own administrative costs. The main source of revenue is the payroll tax paid by employers and employees (the Federal Insurance Contributions Act, or FICA); other income sources include interest payments on bonds in the Social Security Trust Fund (SSTF) and taxes paid by higher-income beneficiaries.

Last year, revenue totaled $781 billion, while outgo was $713 billion. And even if funds aren't on hand in a given week to pay benefits for timing reasons, the SSTF can redeem bonds to make up the shortfall.

But here's the rub: the bonds are obligations of the U.S. Treasury back to the SSTF. A government debt default would put us in uncharted waters, and it's entirely possible that the administration could refuse to redeem bonds or divert payroll tax receipts to meet other pressing obligations.

Social Security advocates don't agree on what might happen.

"(Obama's statement) was a foolish bluff," says Eric Kingson, co-director of the Strengthen Social Security coalition. "There's no excuse for checks not being issued, and the White House's willingness to use the threat is symptomatic of their lack of regard for the institution. Their willingness to use it as a negotiating chip is unfortunate."

But Max Richtman, acting chief executive officer of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, worries that the government might decide not to fund the interest on Social Security's bonds, which would leave the program short of funds.

"We really don't know -- it's completely uncharted territory. Social Security is cash flow-positive if you count interest on the bonds. But which obligations will the government put at top of list of priorities, and who decides that? Is it paying the interest on those bonds? Will it be paying the military? There's so much uncertainty as to who gets paid, how much and when."

2. What if I just filed for benefits, or plan to file next month? Could I lose my benefits in the event of a government default?

No, but processing of your application could be delayed if the Social Security Administration is forced to lay off employees or shut down in the event of a government funding crisis.

3. Will interest rates on mortgages, car loans, student loans and credit cards rise?

Yes. Like any average Joe or Jane who misses a credit card payment, the United States will be socked with higher borrowing costs if it defaults on its debt. If the country loses its coveted triple-A rating, which is expected to happen, the cost to service its debt will probably rise. And that will have a significant ripple effect.

Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com, says either a ratings downgrade or debt default would result in higher borrowing rates for consumers and businesses alike. "More of a concern is that a prolonged default could cause credit markets to freeze altogether, and we will have real problems," he says.

It's impossible to speculate how much rates will go up, he says. "There are a lot of variables at play. The downgrade will lead to a more modest increase in rates. However, that increase would be permanent." Folks who have variable debt such as a credit card balance or adjustable-rate mortgage can take a little comfort in this: "You are going to see higher interest rates eventually, anyway, because rates are so low," McBride says.

Alas, consumers won't see higher rates on saving products, such as certificates of deposit or money market accounts. "Those products won't improve until loan demand picks up; any downgrade or default will only hold back loan demand," McBride says.

4. What's the outlook for the U.S. dollar?

Fear that the United States will lose its AAA credit rating or even default on its debt is driving foreigners away from U.S. assets, and the dollar is taking the biggest hit.

Recent trading in currency markets indicates overseas investors have been voting with their feet. They have also been giving short shrift to recent Treasury auctions.

Traders say Asian central banks, among the world's biggest dollar holders, have been steady buyers of alternatives to the dollar such as the Singapore dollar and other Asian currencies as well as the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars. "Foreigners are at the vanguard of the drop in the dollar," says Dan Dorrow, head of research at Faros Trading, a currency broker/dealer in Stamford, Connecticut. "I don't think anyone expects a catastrophic U.S. default. But a downgrade will make them more aggressive in moving away from the dollar."

If global investors lose faith in the dollar, that could weaken its dominant position in global trade and its role as the world's reserve currency. Over time, diminished demand for dollars would make it harder for the United States to finance itself at low interest rates.

The bottom line? It will be more expensive to travel overseas, drink French wine or buy Japanese cars.

5. What's the outlook for U.S. Treasuries?

The Treasury market has held up better than the dollar, but bonds haven't been let off the hook entirely. Foreigners, who hold nearly half of outstanding Treasury debt, have been less active buyers at auctions this month. Still, the 10-year yield has held below three percent for most of July, less than a percentage point from its multi-decade low.

That's partly because domestic investors have picked up the slack in recent debt sales, suggesting they see no alternative to U.S. government bonds even in the face of a default or possible downgrade.

Indeed, analysts say even with a downgrade, Treasuries would remain the benchmark for world fixed income markets, as Fitch Ratings noted this week.

Terry Belton, global head of fixed income strategy at JPMorgan Chase, said a downgrade would probably add just five to 10 basis points to yields in the short run. But it could cost the U.S. government up to 70 basis points, or about $100 billion, in added borrowing costs over time as foreigners look to invest their money elsewhere.

6. Will we still pay our soldiers?

While a group of Congressmen pushed forward a bill this week to ensure that the active military servicemen still get paid in the case of default, there's no firm plan yet. The White House hasn't made any assurances and either has the Treasury Department. Some financial organizations that service military clients, like USAA and the Andrews Federal Credit Union, have stepped up to say that they will advance pay if there is a default. "Rest assured, USAA has continued to manage its financial resources to meet our commitments to members in their moments of need," says CEO Joe Robles in a statement.

What will a default actually mean for military members and their families? "The bigger concern has got to be interest rates," says Sarah Gilbert, the wife of an army reservist and a personal finance writer who was formerly an investment banker. She says military families have been through pay stoppages before - during the last government shut-down, they actually halted all military pay a week early - but what will really hurt is if interest rates go up even a little bit. "There's no wiggle room," she says. "Military families are so dependent on debt because they have to move so much, they are living on small budgets and they are mostly young families that don't have a lot of established savings. If interest rates go up, you're looking at foreclosures, collections and not being able to pay bills."

7. Is there an upside to higher interest rates?

Barry Glassman, president and certified financial planner at Glassman Wealth Services in McLean, Virginia, says higher interest rates are good for retirees and folks who have fixed mortgages. "I don't know anyone with a five-year Treasury bond who doesn't believe they won't get their interest and principal back. If yields do jump, my clients would love 10- year Treasuries with a five percent coupon," Glassman says.

But McBride of Bankrate.com says it's going to be a bumpy ride for most folks. "There are no winners here. Your best bet is to sit tight and pull the seat belt a little tighter," he says.

(With reporting from Mark Miller, Steven Johnson, Beth Pinsker and Linda Stern.)

 

Who will Uncle Sam pay if there’s no debt deal?

 | Exclusive - Yahoo! News

 

By JANE SASSE

Come Aug. 3, just who will get paid?

That's the new worry coursing throughout Washington as the contentious debt ceiling negotiations hurtle towards Aug. 2, the deadline beyond which President Barack Obama has warned that the government risks running short of money to pay all of its bills.

If the government has to choose which of its many obligations to honor and which to delay, who will it pay -- and, more importantly, who will it be forced to cut off?

Chinese bondholders?  Social Security recipients? Medicaid beneficiaries? Veterans or FBI agents? With the clock ticking, it's no longer a theoretical  question.

"We are running out of time," the president said in a statement at the White House Friday morning, little more than 12 hours after House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) was forced to call off a vote on his two-stage bill to trim $2.5 trillion from the budget in the face of stiff opposition from conservatives.  The House finally passed the bill Friday evening, but it was quickly rejected by the Senate, where Democratic leaders are preparing their own rival bill. Congressional leaders and the White House are expected to spend much of the weekend wrangling over the competing proposals.

Treasury officials have drawn up emergency plans to prioritize payments if Congress doesn't vote to raise the government's borrowing ability above the current $14.3 trillion level before the maximum is hit. Without a deal, Treasury will have no choice but to start to triage between its many payments.

It won't be easy. The federal government makes payments to some 80 million individuals, companies and entities every month. While it takes in roughly a couple of hundred billion dollars every month in revenues, it spends tens of billions more.  Some 40% of the current budget is paid with borrowed money.

"A de facto shutdown of the government is the real threat, not default, " says Greg Valliere, chief political strategist for the Potomac Research Group.

The key question is what date the government will hit the current debt ceiling. That's when it will no longer be able to borrow to make up the difference between revenues and expenditures. That's why Aug. 2 looms as a critical deadline -- a big Social Security payment is due the following day.  In mid-July, analysts at Barclays Capital estimated that Treasury would have only $30 billion in cash on hand the morning of Aug. 3 — not enough to pay the $22 billion owed to Social Security recipients plus the additional $10 billion owed to others that day.

While higher-than-expected revenues in recent days could give the government a few more days wiggle room beyond that, the trajectory is clear.

"Without an agreement, the only question is when, not if, we'll run short of cash," says Jay Powell, a former Treasury official under President George H.W. Bush who has analyzed the issue in a report for the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington-based think tank.  "There's just no way to pay for everything."

The triage could begin as early as Aug. 3. One possibility is that Treasury would simply pay the bills in the order they come in. But most observers believe such a move would be too politically risky; the administration is far more likely to make sure Social Security recipients and other politically-sensitive constituencies get paid.

So who would be the winners and who would be the losers?

Start with the math: between Aug. 3 and the end of the month, the Treasury will pocket an estimated $172 billion in taxes and other revenues, according to Powell. Over that same time, it has to shell out roughly $307 billion in payments for everything from Social Security and veterans' health care benefits to money for highway construction and federal workers' salaries.

 

House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, right, and House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy of Calif., left, listen as House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Va., center, speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, July 28, 2011. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, right, and House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy of Calif., left, listen as House …

Given that huge gap, the administration would essentially have to decide who to stiff, at least temporarily. Here's a look at how the choices could play out:

 

INTEREST ON US TREASURY BONDS: One thing on which all analysts agree: Holders of U.S. Treasury bonds, whether they are hedge fund managers in New York, retirees in Florida, or central bankers in China, will have first dibs on the remaining cash. They would get paid before all other creditors. That's the only way the U.S. can avoid a potentially disastrous default on its bonds and a serious downgrading of its credit rating.

So the first $29 billion—the estimated interest payments Treasury owes for the month of August--will go straight to bondholders.  That would leave Uncle Sam with $143 billion in cash to cover another $278 billion in bills coming due in August.

SOCIAL SECURITY: Another point of accord between Democrats and Republicans: no one, but no one, wants to see TV screens fill with interviews of outraged seniors. Nor is anyone foolish enough to want to face the political consequences of cutting them off. So count on Social Security payments to take second priority when it comes to cutting checks.

For August, Uncle Sam owes Social Security payments of $49 billion. Draw that down, and Uncle Sam would have only $94 billion left to take care of the remaining $299 billion in expenditures.

MEDICARE/MEDICAID: Now throw in Uncle Sam's biggest health care obligations, Medicare and Medicaid. They will account for another $50 billion in August. Some analysts suggest Medicare would be fully funded, while the federal government could try to cut back on the Medicaid payments it owes to the states. But that remains to be seen.

If the administration does fund all of those health care obligations, then Uncle Sam would be down to only $44 billion in cash, to divide among the $179 billion needed in August to fund the military, social safety net expenditures such as unemployment insurance and housing aid for the poor—not to mention the entire rest of the federal government.

MILITARY SPENDING: Cutting off veterans or soldiers could be just as politically poisonous.  However, those costs are relatively small: $2.9 billion each for Veterans Affairs programs and pay for active duty military members. They are likely to be paid.

The big expenditure comes in payments to the thousands of defense contractors across the country: Uncle Sam will owe defense contractors some $31.7 billion in the month of August.  Many of them could see payments delayed until the crisis is resolved.

"Treasury will be able to prioritize within defense," says Daniel Clifton, who oversees policy research for Strategas Research Partners. "They build battleships that take years to complete; can they really argue they need that payment today?"

SOCIAL SAFETY NET: Juggling the programs aimed at supporting the unemployed, the poor and the sick will be tough; many could see cuts as the money runs out.  Unemployment insurance benefits will cost some $12.8 billion for the month, while food aid for the poor would run to $9.3 billion. Housing aid programs for August would be another $6.7 billion. Grants for tuition and special education would run another $14 billion.

Fund all those programs, on top of Social Security, Medicare and interest payments, the BPC's Powell points out, and there would be virtually nothing left for the vast majority of defense spending.  The Administration would have to choose: protect the safety net, and much of the military will go unfunded. Pay for defense, and many on the home front will suffer.

Moreover, whatever the choices the White House makes to divvy up the dollars between military and social spending, neither leaves much room for funding the rest of the government. Salaries and benefits alone for federal employee would cost another $14.2 billion in August — one reason many could find themselves furloughed if push comes to shove.

"There's just no way to avoid the pain," says the BPC's Powell. "If you opt to pay for Social Security, Medicare and a few other priorities, there's no money left over for a Justice Dept, a Defense Dept., an Energy Dept. or most other things."

Jane Sasseen is the editor-in-chief of politics and opinion at Yahoo! News.

 

Saturday, July 30, 2011

A Wish

Wish you all muslims a Happy Ramadhan.
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At Puri Imperium
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BRI ATM S***

Just wanna share my experience using BRI ATM just now. Yeah, I know it is midnight here now *shocked*.But, the ATM is close to my house. Let me share that experience with you now.
Most people who close to me, know that I seldom carry cash. Since I was a student at uni, I have become a loyal user of Debit card.

I rarely bring cash because debit card and credit are now mostly accepted as a payment here. So, I just put 50-100 thousands in my wallet. However, tommorow early morning I have to go to Jakarta to attend Anwar Ibrahim's lecture. He is gonna talk about Malaysia's Spring. Well, I need cash to pay taxi. Here taxi can't accept anyu credit payment.
So, in the midnite, I went to BRI ATM to withdraw cash. It is just few minutes from my place so it didint matter I went there at almost 12 am. But, it sucks, I tried many times and it kept failing. I dunno why. Then, I stopped to try because a guy want to withdraw too. And he said, it worked. Then I went to retry. But, still failed. I was a little worried that a fraud or scam might happen. Here some people never use net banking and ATM because the fear of bank fraud. But, I use both because they are just efficient and convenient for me. So far, I never have problem for that.
Anyway, due to the many times of fail transaction, I decided to leave. I will just withdraw in the morning before going to Jakarta. But, I saw two guys going to take some cash as well. So, I just returned to that ATM Machine and waiting. Then in few seconds, that guy came out. I asked him whether it worked. He said "no". He tried two times so I feel a bit relief because I am sure the machine is broken. Then, in case I have to make a complaint, I just took the picture showing that my transaction at that nite failed.
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Samoa : How are you, Pearl?

Flag Counter » Visitor Information

Newest Country

Samoa
Last Visited July 28, 2011

Flag counter said that 167 different countries have visited my blog. And, the newest country to visit my blog is Samoa. Wow..this reminds me of my best friend when I was in Australia. How are you, Pearl? :)

Snaptu: If it really wants to cut carbon, why is the coalition issuing licences to drill? | George Monbiot

Pledges to curb reliance on fossil fuels are hard to square with prospecting for more oil and gas and pushing dirty coal plants

Rejoice, the boom is back! After a drought of investment, last week BP announced that it was spending £3bn to redevelop…


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Friday, July 29, 2011

Snaptu: The God Species: How the Planet Can Survive the Age of Humans by Mark Lynas – review

Factual errors detract from Mark Lynas's otherwise smart proposal on how to save the planet

Across our planet, a range of ancient habitats provide eerie testimonies to the lives of creatures that once ruled the land. In Brazil, more than 100 tree…


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Snaptu: America's rising tide of Islamophobia | Sarah Wildman

The Norway attacks and Breivik's citation of US bloggers reveal how mainstream far-right views on Muslims have become

In the early hours of Friday's massacre in Oslo, the initial working assumption of news-watchers, journalists and bystanders was…


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Interesting article about The Rise of Europe's Right-Wing Populists

09/28/2010 12:37 PM

Continent of Fear

The Rise of Europe's Right-Wing Populists

All across Europe, right-wing populist parties are enjoying significant popular support. Led by charismatic politicians like Geert Wilders, they are exploiting fear of Muslim immigration and frustration with the political establishment -- and are forcing mainstream parties to shift to the right. By SPIEGEL Staff.

He is a politician who claims to have nothing against Muslims, and that he only hates Islam. He is a charismatic man with peroxide-blonde hair, elegant, eloquent and precisely the type of politician that has put fear into the hearts of Germany's mainstream political parties in recent weeks.

He is Geert Wilders, a Dutch politician of a stripe that doesn't yet exist in Germany: a populist who stirs up hatred against Islam and the establishment, and who has taken away many votes from the traditional parties in his native Netherlands. So many, in fact, that they now can hardly form a government without giving him a share of power.

Wilders is the central figure of a movement that has been expanding its following in Europe for years, entering parliaments and governments, and ensuring that minarets were banned in Switzerland and burqas in Belgium. It is a sort of popular uprising against Islam, spearheaded by right-wing politicians and journalists throughout Europe. They portray themselves as people who are willing to express a sentiment they claim no one else dares to express: that Muslims are undermining Europe and that the West must be saved. And the approach has been successful.

'An Ideology that Opposes Everything that Matters to Us'

The man who invited Wilders to speak in the German capital Berlin this coming Saturday would like to emulate the Dutch politician. René Stadtkewitz, 45, a well-dressed man with a short haircut, was recently ejected from the Berlin branch of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which he represented for years as a backbencher in the Berlin city-state parliament. He has now founded a new party called "Die Freiheit" ("Freedom"), named after Wilders' Freedom Party.

Wilders is traveling to Berlin to help Stadtkewitz inaugurate the new party. Anyone who hopes to catch a glimpse of the prominent guest must register online and pay an admission fee in advance. For security reasons, only registered attendees who have paid the admission fee are told where the event will take place.

Stadkewitz, eating Moroccan couscous in the cafeteria of the Berlin city-state parliament, says that "Geert's" call for the institution of a headscarf tax in the Netherlands is really a great idea. Wilders' visit has cost him €12,000 ($16,200). Stadkewitz sees it as a worthwhile investment. "Islam may also be a religion," he says. "But mainly it's an ideology that opposes everything that matters to us."

Stadkewitz is in a hurry. He is about to give a Dutch television team a tour of Berlin in his BMW. He wants to show them the Muslim parallel society that is supposedly being kept under wraps in the German media.

A Lightning Rod for Popular Anger

A debate has been triggered in Germany by a new book by Thilo Sarrazin, a controversial politician with the center-left Social Democrats, in which he describes Muslim immigrants as an existential threat for Germany. Ever since the book was published and met with popular approval, many columnists, academics and politicians have been asking themselves whether Germany will remain an exception in terms of its political landscape. It is still the only country in Western Europe that lacks a right-wing populist party that acts as a lightning rod for popular anger targeted at Islam and the political establishment.

In recent months, right-wing populist parties have thwarted majority governments in three European Union countries: Belgium, the Netherlands and, most recently, Sweden. Although right-wing populists in the latter country only captured 5.7 percent of the vote, it was enough to deprive the incumbent center-right coalition of an absolute majority. All three countries were long known for their liberalism, but now political parties are gaining influence that see Islam as "our biggest foreign threat since World War II," as Jimmie Akesson, the 31-year-old chairman of the Sweden Democrats, puts it.

Right-wing populist parties have been a part of coalition governments in Italy and Switzerland for years, and they hold seats in the parliaments of Denmark, Austria, Norway and Finland. Jean-Marie Le Pens' National Front captured 9 percent of the vote in last spring's French regional elections with a targeted anti-Islamic campaign. In March, Italy's Northern League gained control of the regions of Venice and Piedmont. During the election campaign, party supporters handed out soap samples, to be used, as they said, "after having touched an immigrant."

 

Parties Discover the Power of Islamophobia

Right-wing populism itself isn't anything new. It has been a fixed entity for about 30 years in many European countries, sometimes successfully and sometimes not. What is new, however, is that the right-wing populists have discovered an issue that is much more appealing to voters than the usual anger against foreigners and the political class. They have found a powerful new issue in resistance against the growing visibility of Islam in Europe. They portray themselves as the defenders of European values, and yet both they and their voters seem to care very little that some of those values, such as freedom of religion, are being trampled on in the struggle.

The fear that Muslim immigrants could change the character of European society penetrates deeply into the middle of society. In German opinion polls, about three-quarters of respondents say they are concerned about the influence of Islam. Similar sentiments are voiced in other countries, even though immigration to Europe has been in decline for years.

Barbaric practices in some Islamic countries -- when women are forced to wear burqas, gays and lesbians are persecuted and adulterers are stoned, all under the pretext of religion -- are undoubtedly deeply contrary to modern European values. And there is no question that many countries face severe problems with integrating immigrants into society. But these things alone do not explain the discomfort. Rather, it stems from the fact that the established parties have failed to give their voters the feeling that they are addressing these issues. The economic crisis of the past couple of years has also unnerved the middle class. Europe is aging, and other, younger regions of the world are catching up. Many people are worried about the future in a globalized world, one in which the balance of power is shifting.

Decline of Traditional Center-Left Parties

In the northern European countries, in particular, the rise of the populists goes hand-in-hand with a decline in support for the traditional center-left social democratic parties. This is partly because immigrants are as likely as anyone to abuse the system in the kind of social welfare states promoted by social democratic parties. But it is also because the traditional parties have become bogged down in the details of integration policy.

They have created integration specialists, immigration offices and integration conferences, but they have lost sight of citizens' concerns. And because they are also in favor of free speech, feminism and secularism, they are incapable of defending themselves against right-wing populists, who cite the same values of free speech, feminism and secularism in defending their battles against headscarves, minarets and mosques. The only difference is that the right-wing populists are more vocal and simplify the issues to the point that their position seems logical.

The Sweden Democrats, which have their origins within the extreme right, have learned from modern right-wing populists like Wilders as well as the Danish People's Party (DF) and its chairwoman, Pia Kjaersgaard. During the recent election campaign, the Sweden Democrats had a television ad showing an elderly woman who, as she is struggling along with her wheeled walker, is almost run over by women in burqas pushing their strollers. The women in burqas are hurrying toward a desk labeled "Government Budget." "On Sept. 19, you can pull the immigration brake -- and not the pension brake," says a voice.

Conservativism Meets Left-Wing Policies

Pitting immigrants against pensioners is one of Wilders' tactics. He brings together right-wing and left-wing policies, Islamophobia and the fear of exploitation of the social welfare state. "It is one of our biggest successes, this combination of being culturally conservative, on the one hand, and leftist on other issues," says Wilders, who characterizes himself as someone who is against immigration but has "a warm heart for the weak and the elderly."

Wilders was one of the first politicians to consistently use Islam as an issue, and many have followed his example. It is telling that the anti-Islam movement did not get underway directly after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, even though they were the main trigger of the current uncertainty and fear of Islamist terror. Instead, it has only reached its climax today, years later.

On the surface, this new right wing has little in common with the old right wing, even though the first far-right European politician began inveighing against Muslims as long ago as the 1970s and 80s. That was Jean-Marie Le Pen, the founder of France's National Front, who targeted immigrants from the former French colonies in North Africa. Le Pen made a career for himself as an angry outsider. He was primitive and old-fashioned, often racist and anti-Semitic, and yet he managed to upend the political landscape. In the first round of the 2002 presidential elections, he even captured more votes than the Socialist candidate, Lionel Jospin. It was a shock for the French elite.

What happened in France has happened in many other countries since then, countries in which the traditional parties have sought to sideline the far right: The centrist politicians have moved to the right. This was the case in Denmark, where the Danish People's Party has given its parliamentary support to a right-liberal minority government since 2001. And even though the populists are not part of the government, Denmark has tightened its immigration laws considerably.

 

France's New National Front

When the current French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, began his campaign in 2007, it was difficult to distinguish some of his rhetoric from Le Pen's. For example, he suggested that people who "slaughter sheep in their bathtubs" were unwelcome in France, and he won the election because he brought together votes from the right. Now Sarkozy will probably soon be confronted with a new National Front, a toned-down -- but perhaps more dangerous -- version of its former self. Marine Le Pen, the daughter of the party's founder, will campaign for the party's chairmanship in January and intends to create a party that could also appeal to the political center.

Marine Le Pen portrays herself as non-dogmatic and intellectual. She wears business suits and distributes kisses during her campaign appearances at markets in the Paris metropolitan area. "I want to unite all the French," she says. At the same time, like Wilders, she raves against the burqa and Islamization. She too has recognized that targeted Islamophobia is more promising than traditional xenophobia.

Le Pen poses a threat to Sarkozy, whose own shift to the right this year reveals how seriously he takes that threat. The debate he has launched in France over "national identity" is clearly directed against Muslims, and he has also embarked on a campaign to deport the Roma. So far, these tactics have done nothing for Sarkozy in the polls.

Borrowing Ideas

The transformation of the National Front is only one example of the new anti-Islamic mainstream among Western Europe's right-wing populist parties. This is the issue that unites all of these parties throughout Europe, which have even taken to borrowing each other's marketing ideas. For example, the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) copied a game from the website of Swiss People's Party (SVP), in which players shoot at minarets popping up in their familiar landscape. The only difference was that the Austrian version also included the option of shooting at the muezzins.

This is a new phenomenon, and it cannot hide the fact that there are still many differences among the parties that are being lumped together under the heading of right-wing populism. It is certainly true that most of them have always been anti-immigration, have positioned themselves against the political elite, have had charismatic leaders and have done particularly well in countries in which the established parties cultivate a culture of consensus. But a neoliberal with rural roots like Swiss politician Christoph Blocher of the SVP has very little in common with the French demagogue Le Pen. Their origins are too different, as are many of the details of their policies.

It is the shared concept of Islam as the enemy that now makes them ideological allies. Still, it is unlikely that these parties will continue to cooperate across borders in the future, despite Wilders' dream of spearheading such a movement throughout Europe. The "International Freedom Alliance" he established in July has two goals: to "defend freedom" and "stop Islam." In a video which is currently the only content on the alliance's website, Wilders says that he wants to pool the existing forces against Islam, in Germany, France, Britain, Canada and the United States.

When asked about Wilders' initiative, Marine Le Pen told SPIEGEL: "Without a concerted revolution, our civilization is ultimately doomed." This may be an acknowledgement of common goals, but it doesn't sound like she necessarily wants to join Wilders' organization.

Handsome Speaking Fees

So far, Wilders has only been successful abroad with right-wing Islamophobic groups in the United States. At the invitation of these groups, he has traveled around the United States for years, collecting awards for his supposed battle to uphold freedom of speech and giving talks to enthusiastic fans -- and collecting handsome speaking fees in the process.

David Horowitz, a millionaire conservative online journalist with anti-Islamic views, told the Dutch television station Avro that he pays Wilders a $20,000 speaking fee. Horowitz describes Wilders as the "Winston Churchill" of the war against Islam. On the ninth anniversary of 9/11, Wilders attended a rally at Ground Zero, where he spoke out against the planned construction of an Islamic community center two blocks away from the site.

American audiences are more enthusiastic about Wilders, who tells them horror stories about how Muslims have infiltrated Europe, than his fans in any other country. Muslims make up only 1 percent of the US population, and while the anger of voters of right-wing populists in Europe is directed against actual immigrants in their countries, conservative American groups cultivate an Islamophobia without Muslims. Some 50 percent of Americans now say that they have a negative impression of Islam, a higher percentage than after the 9/11 attacks.

'Thank You, Thilo Sarrazin!'

This weekend, Wilders will appear in Berlin as the representative of a political movement for which a market also seems to exist in Germany, even if it currently lack an effective salesman or saleswoman.

There will undoubtedly be an audience when former CDU politician René Stadtkewitz greets Wilders in Berlin. The German polemical website Politically Incorrect, a gathering place for the sharpest critics of Islam for years, is heavily promoting the appearance. The website is even selling T-shirts, for €19.90 apiece, imprinted with the words "Geert Wilders - Berlin - October 2, 2010" -- available in 19 different colors.

There are no Stadtkewitz T-shirts for sale, although the website does sell T-shirts imprinted with the words "Thank You, Thilo Sarrazin!"

MARKUS DEGGERICH, MANFRED ERTEL, JULIANE VON MITTELSTAEDT, MATHIEU VON ROHR, HANS-JÜRGEN SCHLAMP, STEFAN SIMONS

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

Animal Welfare and Animal Cruelty

Today when I was on the way to office, I saw a horse carriage in the central market bringing so much burden. I felt sorry for that horse. I could see, he was so tired and almost fell to the ground. I was so sad to see he was treated so bad.
 If it happens in developed countries which respect  animal welfare, I believe, the owner of that carriage will be put on jail.  I hope one day animal welfare will be ruled here. Animals also suffer as we do. We must fight against  the animal cruelty.
Here I put a quote from some philosophers concerning of animal welfare.
 
"We must fight against the spirit of unconscious cruelty with which we treat the animals. Animals suffer as much as we do. True humanity does not allow us to impose such sufferings on them. It is our duty to make the whole world recognize it. Until we extend our circle of compassion to all living things, humanity will not find peace." — Albert Schweitzer, "The Philosophy of Civilization."

"Animals teach children to understand and be respectful to not only animals, but to their friends and family," — Danielle Nelson, New South Wales Animal Welfare League.

I also found a good article from Jakarta Globe discussing about animal cruelty by by Alexia Cahyaningtyas.

From a young age, we are taught that humans are the rulers of this planet, and that animals are below us. Unlike animals, we are blessed with the ability to think rationally and logically. However, many humans treat animals as if these living things had no value of their own. Animal cruelty is a bad habit implanted in many people's brains since they were young, it's often part of how they were raised. When children are brought up without being taught about empathy toward other living things, when they grow into adults, they will keep treating animals without respect.

I remember when I was still in primary school, people used to sell little baby chickens, with their feathers dyed bright colors. A friend of my mother's bought one and it died a couple of days later. The poor thing must have been so stressed out. My worst memory of animal cruelty, which I witnessed as a child, was when a bunch of my seniors were brutally kicking and throwing a poor stray cat inside the school grounds. I quickly asked them to stop, but they all rolled their eyes at me — as if being cruel to animals was a cool thing to do.

Some of my friends don't like animals because they are brought up to dislike them, and some friends think that animals are just plain annoying. Some of them claim that cats steal their food, or urinate on their washing, but they have to realize that animals cannot think rationally or logically. They just want food, or a safe place to sleep. It is we humans who have to think of ways to stop this from happening without resorting to cruelty. Maybe we should put our food elsewhere, or discipline the cats with water when they do something wrong. If you hurt animals when you try to stop them from doing something you are being harsh and not using your brain, which means you are just the same as the animal.

Some people have pets and treat them like they are a part of their family, but some of them keep them in cramped, uncomfortable cages. Some dogs that live near my house are imprisoned in small cages outside people's houses, apparently because they are too vicious. The only time they meet their owners is when they are being fed. No wonder they are vicious — they have never received any kind of love and affection from anyone. They bark continuously at everyone passing by and they look so bored. What is the point of owning a dog when you don't know how to take care of one? Some people even just dump their pets when they get bored with them, creating problems for their whole neighborhoods.

It was reported this week that the Australian government has blacklisted some Indonesian abattoirs due to their cruel treatment of cattle. Some slaughterhouse workers in Indonesia are not well trained, and they are probably raised to believe that these animals only live to be killed and eaten so they think, "What's the point of being nice to them?" In some uncertified abattoirs, cattle are slaughtered with blunt knives — a long, painful death that is inhumane and cruel. What is so hard about sharpening the knives?

I believe that every living thing created in this universe has a purpose, and that because we as humans have been blessed with logic and reason, we have the responsibility to be good caretakers. Empathy is the key to it all. We need to teach the younger generation to have empathy toward animals.