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Monday, May 06, 2013

Bosnia Lends Clue To Syria Strategy By: Michael E. O'Hanlon

The recent hullabaloo over Syria's alleged use of chemical weapons is appropriate at one level but surreal at another. When a dictator such as Syrian President Bashar Assad has already killed tens of thousands of his own people with the most brutal and indiscriminate of tactics, the fact that he might have harmed a few dozen more with sarin gas, while horrible, does not radically change the complexion of the conflict.

That President Obama has said Syria's use of chemical weapons would constitute crossing a "red line," means he will have to act. If U.S. intelligence eliminates any remaining doubts about the use of chemical weapons, the United States will probably have to retaliate -- perhaps with cruise missile strikes against whatever Syrian army unit did the deed.

But what about the broader problem? Is the United States, already weary of wars, burdened by debt, and chastised by the Iraq and Afghanistan experiences, going to stand aside indefinitely in this war?

Obama's critics want him to "do something." They refer to the Rwanda genocide of 1994, or the more successful Libya intervention of 2011, and demand that the U.S., along with other NATO states and the Arab League, find a way to end the carnage. Arm the rebels, establish a no-fly zone, set up safe areas for internally displaced persons and refugees.

Indeed, I tend to support these kinds of ideas myself, and the president is reportedly considering providing some arms to some of the insurgents more seriously than he did before.

Before entering war

Even so, Obama is right to be wary of putting U.S. credibility on the line when there is no clear exit strategy. The Syrian insurgency is a motley bunch that includes al-Qaeda-linked extremists. The overthrow of Assad would no more end Syria's war than the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003 brought peaceful bliss to Iraq.

We need a debate about the right exit strategy in Syria before we enter into the war. The right model is neither Iraq, nor Afghanistan nor Libya, but the country of Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

Two decades ago, we watched similar killings for a couple years in the nation that had broken away from Yugoslavia, until international outrage and battlefield dynamics converged to make a solution possible. We bombed Slobodan Milosevic's Serbian militias, then forced him into a deal that created a "soft partition" of Bosnia.

It wasn't perfect, but 18 years later, Serbs, Muslims and Croats have not gone back to war.

Syria could be harder because the insurgents are so fractured. But by offering the various factions help -- not only now on the battlefield, but also later as they try to rebuild Syria once Assad is gone -- we can establish influence and leverage. This will not be easy and will hardly guarantee a great outcome. But it is far more promising than the trajectory we are on.

With a Bosnia-type approach, Assad's Alawite minority would keep a section of the country, most likely along the coast, where local police would be the main security forces. Assad himself would have to step down and ideally would go into exile. Kurds would keep similar sections of the country in the north. The main central cities would be shared.

Establish basic rights

And, of course, minority rights would be enshrined in the deal. In other words, having different parts of the country run primarily by one group or another would not be an invitation to further ethnic cleansing or killing.

Yes, this plan does imply a number of U.S. peacekeepers on the ground, perhaps comparable in number to the 20,000 who began the job in Bosnia in 1995. The United States should, however, commit to such a deployment only if other countries, including Arab states and Turkey, provide the majority of peacekeepers. In fact, we should seek pledges of international participation before moving to any direct U.S. involvement in the conflict.

With international participation, combined with a fair-minded idea for a peace accord later, Washington and other key capitals might also finally convince Moscow that there is no hope for putting Humpty Dumpty back together again. We need Russia's help to push Assad out and get this kind of settlement.

It is time to get realistic about our options in Syria and to get beyond the impulse just to "do something." We need a comprehensive approach that includes a viable exit strategy. The Bosnia model provides the best first draft for such a plan

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak could step down by the end of the year after its worst election performance

By Niluksi Koswanage and Yantoultra Ngui

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak could step down by the end of the year, ruling party sources said on Monday, after his coalition extended its 56-year rule but haemorrhaged Chinese and Malay voters in its worst-ever general election performance.

Najib, 59, was already under pressure from conservatives in his ruling party for not delivering a stronger majority in Sunday's election despite a robust economy and a $2.6 billion deluge of social handouts to poor families.

Najib's Barisan Nasional won 133 seats in the 222-member parliament, well short of the two-thirds majority it lost in 2008. Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim People's Alliance won 89 seats, up seven from the 2008 election but still well short of unseating one of the world's longest-serving governments.

"We could see Najib step down by the end of this year," said a senior official in the dominant United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), which leads the coalition.

"He may put up a fight, we don't know, but he has definitely performed worse. He does not have so much bargaining power," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, still a powerful figure in UMNO, told Reuters last year that Najib must improve on the 140 seats won in 2008 or his position would be unstable.

Kuala Lumpur's stock market surged 7.8 percent on Monday to a record high on investor relief that the untested opposition had failed to take power. The Malaysian ringgit jumped to a 20-month high.

Ethnic Chinese who make up a quarter of Malaysians continued to desert Barisan Nasional, accelerating a trend seen in 2008. Alarmingly for Najib, support from majority ethnic Malays also weakened, the UMNO source said, a sign that middle-class Malays are agitating for change.

"Malay unity is at stake here. Some of the Malays are rejecting UMNO. That is obvious," the source said.

ANWAR CRIES FOUL

Ethnic Chinese have turned to the opposition, attracted by its pledge to tackle corruption and end race-based policies favoring ethnic Malays in business, education and housing.

"We will work towards more moderate and accommodative policies for the country," a grim-faced Najib told a news conference after the majority was confirmed. "We have tried our best but other factors have happened ... We didn't get much support from the Chinese for our development plans."

Barisan Nasional also failed to win back the crucial industrial state of Selangor, near the capital Kuala Lumpur, which Najib had vowed to achieve.

Voting was marred by irregularities, said Anwar, 65, a former deputy prime minister in the 1990s who was sacked after falling out with his former boss, Mahathir. His three-party opposition alliance had been optimistic of a historic victory, buoyed by huge crowds at recent rallies.

But as counting went late into Sunday night, it became clear that his fractious opposition had failed to pull off what would have been the biggest election upset in Malaysia's history.

After claiming an improbable early win, Anwar later rejected the result as "fraudulent". He had accused the coalition of flying up to 40,000 "dubious" voters, including foreigners, across the country to vote in close races. The government says it was merely helping voters get to home towns to vote.

RISKS AHEAD FOR COALITION

Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists expect the government to focus on fiscal consolidation after a string of populist pre-election handouts. They expect cuts to fuel subsidies in the second half and a consumption tax next year.

It cited some risks, however, including UMNO elections in October and November when Najib may be challenged.

"Once the dust and excitement has settled, you will see that it's not only the Chinese which were siphoned off from Barisan Nasional. There was a mini-Malay wave in the urban areas against UMNO," said another senior UMNO official.

"In the next round of elections within UMNO, you will see some dissidents emerging and asking for Najib to resign," said the official, who has held cabinet positions in government. He said Mahathir would be among those who back the dissidents.

The 2008 result signaled a breakdown in traditional politics as minority ethnic Chinese and ethnic Indians, as well as many majority Malays, rejected Barisan Nasional's brand of race-based patronage that has ensured stability but led to corruption and widening inequality.

Ethnic Chinese parties affiliated with Barisan Nasional suffered heavy losses in 2008 and were punished by voters again on Sunday. Its ethnic Chinese MCA party won just five seats, down from 15 in 2008.

That leaves Barisan Nasional dominated more than ever by ethnic Malays, who make up about 60 percent of the population, increasing a trend of racial polarization in the country.

The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index hit a lifetime high of 1,826.22, with stocks linked to the coalition and its favored tycoons gaining handsomely.

Malaysia's second-largest lender by assets, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, rose 8.8 percent. Its chief executive, Nazir Razak, is Najib's brother. Hospitals operator IHH Healthcare Bhd added 6.7 percent and energy services firm SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd jumped 8.9 percent.

Australia's Lynas Corp Ltd, which is building the world's largest rare earths plant outside China in Malaysia, jumped 13 percent.

"There was a concern that the opposition would move fairly quickly against Lynas given that there were a number of groups actively protesting against the plant," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney.

(Additional reporting by the Reuters Kuala Lumpur bureau; Writing by Jason Szep; Editing by Paul Tait)

Malaysians Vote in Record Numbers in Tight Race | TIME.com


http://world.time.com/2013/05/04/voting-begins-in-tight-malaysian-national-election/

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Sunday, May 05, 2013

Roluos Group of Monuments, Siem Reap, Cambodia

I visited this place in April 22, 2013...had a great time. The tuc tuc driver however is from Rolous so he explained me a bit about his hometown..

Three temples Bakong, Lolei and Preah Ko 11 Kilometers (6.8 miles) southeast of the Siem Reap Market, comprise the Roluos group of monuments they are close together and extend over an area of three kilometers ( 1.9 miles ) east of the Great Lake.

The Roluos group, dating from the late ninth century, is the earliest site of the 600 years Angkor Period that is open to visitors.

The three temples belonging to this important group have similar characteristics of architecture, decoration, materials and construction methods, which combine to reveal the beginning of the Classic Period of Khmer art.

BACKGROUND

Roluos is the site of an ancient center of Khmer civilization known as Hariharalaya (the abode of Hari-hara'). Some 70 years after Jayavarman II established his capital on Mount Kulen in 802 inaugurating the Angkor Period, the king moved the king moved the capital to Hariharalaya, Perhaps for a better source of food or for defence purposed. He died at roluos in 850. It is generally believed that his successors remained there until the capital was moved to Bakheng in 905.

Architecture: The buildings of the Roluos Group are distinguished by tall square-shaped brick towers on pedestals. The open to the east, with false doors on the other three sides. As is typical of this period, brick was used for the towers and sandstone for carved areas such as columns, lintels and decorative niches.

A wall originally enclosed the temples though only traces remain today. It was intersected on two or more sides by an entry tower, an innovation of this period, of perhaps slightly earlier. The early examples were square with a tiered upper portion. The library also made also appearance at Roluos. It is a rectangular building with a curved roof and pediments. A temple often has two libraries, one on each side of the entry tower preceding the Central Sanctuary.

DECORATION: The characteristic decorative features of the Roluos group are: a Kala (monster head), the Hindu god Visnu on his mount the Garuda, female figures with abundant jewelry, and a preponderance of guardians and Apsaras. Columns are generally octagonal and intricately adorned with delicate leaves. Decoration on the lintels at Roluos is, according to some art historians, ' the most beautiful of all Khmer art '