grey tourism in buleleng

source: jakarta post For 70-year-old Kenzo Otake, a retiree from Osaka, Bali has always been his second home and a perfect holiday sanctuary. In April 2011, he was supposed to be on a luxury liner on its way to the island to spend spring vacation in Bali. But he never reached the island, as Japan was hit hard by a disastrous earthquake and tsunami in March. "Now, I am here with all of my friends. I really missed watching the kecak dance and other Balinese traditional performing arts," said Kenzo, with a bright smile on his wrinkled face. "This is my 10th visit to Bali and I always want to come here whenever possible," he grinned. Kenzo was heading to a special retirement village for elderly Japanese tourists developed in Tabanan regency. Kenzo, a former urban planner, is among thousands of elderly Japanese tourists who keep noting Bali in their annual holiday diary. Not to mention the 2,000 other senior tourists who come every year to stay for long periods in Bali. Australian Martin Jones, previously an investment banker, is 69. He is another visitor who fell hard for Bali. With his wife, Leslie, Martin visits the island almost every year and the couple has the strong intention to spend their retirement in Ubud village. To tap into this huge untapped market, the provincial administration will work with the Bali Retirement Tourism Authority (BRTA) to prepare and develop several villages in Bali as holiday and residential sites for senior visitors. Several retirement villages will be developed in Kintamani resort area in Bangli regency, Pancasari near Bedugul and Gerokgak in Buleleng regency, Tulamben in Karangasem regency and Perancak in Jembrana regency. Bali welcomed 2.89 million foreign visitors in 2011, many of whom were retirees from Japan, France, the Netherlands, the UK, Germany, Australia, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore. Ida Bagus Made Parwata, head of the Bali Investment Agency, said that a number of potential investors from Abu Dhabi had shown their interest in putting money into the development of tourist facilities in Bali for older tourists. In addition to physical facilities, the administration also plans to ease travel requirements and documentation, as well as the legalities to lease or buy properties in Bali. Meanwhile, head of the Research Center on Tourism and Culture at Bali's Udayana University, Agung Suryawan Wiranatha, has frequently warned the government to adopt a more serious approach to "grey" tourism, given the strong potential this market holds for Bali. Suryawan shared his vision for "grey" tourism, saying current immigration rules permitted tourists to stay in Bali for up to six months. These people could stay in villas and employ drivers, nurses and housemaids. Suryawan pointed to other countries that are adopting serious plans to garner a share of the senior citizen market. Thailand, for instance, has been developing this market for the past five years. The Bali-based tourism academic estimates the average spend of the grey market is US$75-100 per day. "Their spending levels may be less than many tourists, but if viewed from the length of stay, which is quite long, the benefit to Bali is much larger," Suryawan said.

Nusa dua gate IMG05289.jpg

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Obama's second victory is more low key, but in some ways more impressive | Gary Younge

Obama's second victory is more low key, but in some ways more impressive | Gary Younge

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Mitt Romney lost because hardline Republicans betrayed him | Simon Tisdall

Mitt Romney lost because hardline Republicans betrayed him | Simon Tisdall

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President Obama wins four more years as America delivers decisive verdict

President Obama wins four more years as America delivers decisive verdict

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Congrats Obama!

I just arrived in Nusa Dua when Obama announced as the winner of the US President election. With 274 electoral votes, he also wins votes in swing states such as Ohio and New Hampshire
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EV for Obama by @DavMicRot

As the last full day of the 2012 presidential campaign gets under way, the Signal's prediction remains the same as it was nearly nine months ago: President Barack Obama will win reelection with 303 electoral votes, winning Ohio and Virginia but losing Florida to Gov. Mitt Romney. There is only about a 15 percent chance that we'll actually be correct, based on our prediction model, given the many combinations of close states that could go either way. Obama has a 24.8 percent likelihood of winning Florida, while Romney has a 40.8 percent chance of snagging Virginia and a 19.9 percent chance of securing Ohio. Romney needs to sweep all three states to secure the election. This may make it seem like all hope is lost for Romney — the odds of him defending Florida and taking Ohio and Virginia are about 6 percent if you simply multiply the probabilities. While the Signal is predicting an Obama victory, we're not calling it with 94 percent certainty. That is because state elections are not entirely independent events. The polls could be systematically biased toward Obama based on faulty assumptions about voter turnout, or the final polls could fail to capture a late surge in support for the Republican candidate. Here's a rundown of where those three states stand: In Florida, Romney leads Obama with 50.65 percent of the vote, not counting third-party candidates. The two main poll aggregation sites, Pollster and RealClearPolitics, disagree over the inclusion of several recent polls, but both point to a slight lead for Romney. The two main prediction market sites, Betfair and Intrade, also disagree over the level of the lead, but they both point to a likely win for Romney. Long lines have marred early voting in the Florida. Republicans are expected to benefit from the reduction of early voting from 14 to eight days, especially the elimination of voting on the Sunday prior to the election, where African-American churches historically voted en mass after church. Even so, 4.3 million votes were cast early, and the state is on track to just about match 2008 voting figures. In Virginia, Obama leads Romney with 50.50 percent of the poll-share going to either of the two candidates. This is essentially the opposite situation to Florida, but with one key distinction: There is much less variance in the Virginia polls. Where the Florida polls swing wildly, the Virginia polls provide a small but consistent lead for Obama. Prediction markets are in full agreement with Obama's small lead in Virginia. In Ohio Obama leads Romney with 51.65 percent of the poll-share going to either of the two candidates. This lead was buoyed over the weekend by another round of strong polls for Obama: 5 point lead, 4 point lead, 8 point lead, 3 point lead, and 2 point lead. The prediction markets keep drifting more and more confident of an Obama victory in Ohio. The math is pretty basic: Romney can only be as likely to win the country as he is to win Ohio. Romney is currently 19.9 percent likely to carry Ohio. Romney can still win this election, but Obama is heavily favored as we head into the final stretch. Follow the state-by-state and overall presidential predictions in real time with PredictWise.com. David Rothschild has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Follow him on Twitter @DavMicRot

Toms River ‘farewell’ note

A Toms River, N.J., man who didn't think he would survive Sandy's storm surge, broke into a stranger's house and left a farewell note asking her to "tell my Dad I love him." Thankfully the letter writer, identified only as Mike, was reunited with his father, Tony. And both will have a lifetime to retell his tale of survival. So will Christine Treglia, who found this unsettling note when she returned home, which she had evacuated before the storm: Who ever reads this I'm DIEING — I'm 28 yrs old my name is Mike. I had to break in to your house. I took blankets off the couch. I have hypothermia. I didn't take any thing. A wave thru me out of my house down the block. I don't think I'm going to make it. The water outside is 10ft deep at least. There's no res[c]ue. Tell my dad I love him and I tryed get[t]ing out. His number is ###-###-#### his name is Tony. I hope u can read this I'm in the dark. I took a black jacket too. Goodbye. God all mighty help me. Treglia posted this response on Facebook along with a link to the story about the note: "This was my house that Mike found refuge in. We found this letter and 2 others in our home along with "help me" signs posted to our windows. We called immediately and were so relieved that Mike was safe and made his way home." In an interview with Justin Louis of WOBM radio, Mike, who still seemed amazed by his ordeal, shared the story behind his frantic note. He said he was at his home in the Green Island community of Toms River when his kitchen was swept away, so he walked out of his house and was swept up in the current. He said he was pulled a half-mile into the bay and then spent about four hours trying to swim back home. "Well, the current took me to somewhere, which I didn't even know where I was, and it threw me back into the bay. And I tried to swim back to my house for some reason," Mike said. "You know, sometimes you don't think." He said he ended up across the bay at "some lady's house." "She had towels on the couch. I just wrapped my body with the towels. ... I was so thirsty because I drank so much salt water. I didn't think I was gonna make it." He penned the note in the dark. "I just wanted to have that note to tell my father I tried. You know, I wasn't a baby about it. I tried, I did my thing." Mike told WOBM. "I was swimming for so long. ... I was so cold, I thought I was just going to freeze right there," he said, "But that lady, I felt like for some reason, she knew someone was going to be in that house. She had these wool blankets all over the place. And I just wrapped myself in them." After a few hours inside in the dark, Mike ventured back out into the waters. "In the street there was about eight feet of water, and I'm like, I ain't dying like this, after all this, I ain't dying like this." He said he was picked up by someone named Frank on a personal watercraft. Frank took in Mike and warmed him by a gas stove and gave him hot chocolate. On Facebook, "Frank" Vicendese of Green Island writes of Mike, "He was very thankful to be alive and warm, also very emotional after warming up by my stove after it started to sink in what happened." Mike's journey took him to a friend's house in Kettle Creek, and then his dad came and picked him up. "I told my dad when I got home, you follow me" wherever I go, he said. Mike says in his conversation with Treglia he apologized for entering her home and said, "There was money on the table, I didn't take nothing. I just took something that would keep me warm." Treglia did not respond to a request for an interview. Louis of WOBM told Yahoo News he wanted to initially ensure the incident was a not a hoax so he called the number on the note. "At first it went straight to voice mail," Louis said. "But I had this feeling I should give it one more shot." When Louis called Tony's number, the happy father said, "That's my son Mike!" "He seems like a typical down-to-earth, mid-20s guy who is still pretty shaken up," Louis said of Mike after their interview. Some people on social media have called Mike's survival a miracle. He may not believe he stole anything during his ordeal. But certainly he was given a most valuable gift—his life. To be honest with you, I'm afraid of the dark now. I was in the dark for so long with at least 15 to 20 foot waves that with the bay crashing over me. I couldn't even breathe. I told my dad when I got home, you follow me everywhere you go.

270 Electoral Votes To Win

(AFP) – In a quirk of the US system, American voters do not directly elect their presidents and vice presidents. Technically speaking, they pick "electors" in an Electoral College. Here is how this unique system, laid out by the country's founding fathers, works:  A total of 538 Electoral College votes are distributed among the 50 states and the District of Columbia (the nation's capital, Washington DC).  Presidential hopefuls must win 270 Electoral College votes or more to be elected.  In the event of a tie, in which each candidate wins 269 electoral votes, the House of Representatives, currently dominated by the Republicans, would be called on to choose the president.  Each state, and DC, has a minimum of three Electoral College votes, but those with the largest populations have the most.  California has 55 Electoral College votes, Texas 38, and New York and Florida 29, making them the largest states up for grabs.  Almost 40 states are seen as shoo-ins for either the Democrats or the Republicans.  This means the battleground is across a clutch of swing states, with varying numbers of Electoral College votes on offer.  Florida is the largest swing state in terms of Electoral College votes. Then comes Ohio with 18, North Carolina with 15 and Virginia with 13.  The candidate who wins the popular vote in each state wins all its Electoral College votes, except in Maine and Nebraska, which use a tiered system.  The political parties (or independent candidates) in each state submit to the state's chief election official a list of individuals pledged to their candidate for president and equal in number to the state's electoral vote.  Democrats and Republicans select these individuals either in state party conventions or through appointment by state party leaders, while third parties and independent candidates designate theirs.  The electors, as they are known, will meet in their state assemblies on December 17, 2012 to formally elect the next president and vice president of the United States.  Critics say the Electoral College does not always reflect the national will. In 2000, Democrat Al Gore won the national popular vote, but Republican George W. Bush won 271 Electoral College votes when he was deemed to have taken Florida.  Supporters argue that changing the system to a direct vote for the president would concentrate too much power in the hands of urban populations to the detriment of rural, more sparsely populated states.

I'm sort of a spiritual person anyway. I haven't decided yet on a religion. I don't know yet exactly what I believe (Amanda Bynes)

Jerome Kerviel : the most indebted man on the planet..uhmmm

Former financial arbitrage trader Jerome Kerviel is the most indebted man on the planet, owing his former employer $6.3 billion. The amount Kerviel owes to French bank Societe Generale for fraudulent trades made in 2007 and 2008 would make Kerviel one of the 50 richest people in America if those debts were assets. But Kerviel cannot even begin paying off his debts until 2015, when he is scheduled to be released from prison. Kerviel recently lost an appeal case in which he argued the corruption at Societe Generale was widespread. The Atlantic's Matthew O'Brien writes that Kerviel managed  €50 billion ($73 billion in unadjusted dollars) worth of unauthorized trades during his tenure at Societe Generale, using a sophisticated scheme of computer hacking and deceptive trades to deceive the bank. O'Brien writes: "In plain English, arbitrage just means taking advantage of discrepancies when things should have the same price, but don't. The idea is to buy the cheaper one, sell the more expensive one, and then wait for them to converge. The beauty is it doesn't matter whether markets go up or down--you're both long and short--just that the prices actually converge." O'Brien spoke with former investment banker and current University of San Diego law professor Frank Partnoy about the logistics of trying to collect $6.3 billion from a single individual. "Well, he's obviously not going to be able to pay the fine," Partnoy told the Atlantic. "What happened to Kerviel is the financial equivalent of sentencing someone to life plus 100 years. They'll likely reach some kind of agreement where a significant percentage of any money he makes for the rest of his life will be paid into a fund to cover the fine. He'll be like Sisyphus pushing the boulder up the hill every day for the rest of his life." And while you could debate whether there are better ways for Kerviel to pay back Societe Generale, Partnoy offers a stark comparison to the fines levied against some of the world's largest financial institutions. In 2010, Goldman Sachs agreed to a $550 million settlement with Securities Exchange Commission, paid in part to investors and the U.S. government, which the SEC described as the largest settlement in history against any Wall Street firm.

US election: an Obama win is the best outcome for all | Observer editorial

US election: an Obama win is the best outcome for all | Observer editorial

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Obama or Romney? Five scenarios that could affect the outcome of the election

Obama or Romney? Five scenarios that could affect the outcome of the election

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Katha Pollitt: Even in a recession, Americans have enough money to help the poor of the third world

Katha Pollitt: Even in a recession, Americans have enough money to help the poor of the third world

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Barack Obama and the paradox behind his African American support base | Gary Younge

Barack Obama and the paradox behind his African American support base | Gary Younge

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US election: whoever wins on Tuesday, the impact will be profound | Jonathan Freedland

US election: whoever wins on Tuesday, the impact will be profound | Jonathan Freedland

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US election: whoever wins on Tuesday, the impact will be profound | Jonathan Freedland

US election: whoever wins on Tuesday, the impact will be profound | Jonathan Freedland

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US presidential election: Obama – four more years | Editorial

US presidential election: Obama – four more years | Editorial

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Legal drugs are ruining more people's lives than illegal drugs – Telegraph Blogs

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/cristinaodone/100184979/legal-drugs-are-ruining-more-peoples-lives-than-illegal-drugs/

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The nasty babble which stigmatises depression | Tanya Gold

The nasty babble which stigmatises depression | Tanya Gold

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