Hung parliament: What happens next?

BBC News -

No party has been able to secure an outright majority in the House of Commons and there will now be a frantic period of negotiation to decide the shape of the next government.

The situation is described as a hung parliament, with no single party having enough MPs - 326 - to win parliamentary votes without the support of members of other parties.

Which party is in a position to form the next government will become clear in the following hours or days.

Graphic of possible hung parliament scenarios

Read on for an explanation of the options or see our election outcomes decision tree.

WHICH PARTY CAN TRY TO FORM THE GOVERNMENT?

Although the Conservatives have won the most seats, the largest party does not automatically have the right to try to form an administration.


WHAT HAPPENS AFTER ELECTION?
part of flow chart showing possible outcomes of election

See election outcomes tree in full

As the incumbent prime minister, that right is Gordon Brown's. Indeed, it is his duty to stay in office until it becomes clear which party or combination of parties can command the most support in the new parliament.

"We must always have a government, and until a new government can be formed the present government carries on," explains Professor Robert Hazell, from the Institute for Government.

A similar situation arose in 1974, when Conservative Edward Heath stayed in power for four days after the election trying to put together a coalition even though Labour had more seats.

IF GORDON BROWN REMAINS PRIME MINISTER

Two routes are likely to be explored as the prime minister bids to form a new government. Firstly, he can consider forging an alliance with another party or parties to create a coalition.
House of Commons
Without a coalition, parties can try to govern on issue-by-issue basis

As an alternative, Labour might seek informal agreements with other parties, trying to form majorities in favour of each individual bill as they come up. This may include gaining the agreement of another party not to defeat the government in a no-confidence vote.

If coalition is Mr Brown's aim, with Labour likely to need a relatively large number of MPs to vote with them, his first port of call has to be the Liberal Democrats.

However, as current forecasts stand, the two parties combined would not have enough seats to form a working majority in Parliament.

The BBC's Political Editor Nick Robinson says one possible bloc that could emerge would be Labour, the Liberal Democrats and two Northern Ireland parties - the SDLP and Alliance.

If the four grouped together, they would have an estimated 320 seats - six short of an overall majority - but perhaps sufficient to govern on a minority basis.

However, it is unlikely Mr Brown will be the only leader negotiating with the Lib Dems, with David Cameron also exploring the option of gaining their backing to form a Conservative-led government.

Nick Robinson said a combination of the Tories and the Lib Dems would be the only arrangement which would clearly have more than 326 seats.

He said the unknown elements were the nationalist parties, the SNP and Plaid Cymru,

Natural allies of neither of the two largest parties, they have said they would use a hung parliament to get the "best possible deals" for Scotland and Wales.

HOW MIGHT AGREEMENT BE REACHED?

Professor Hazell says the Liberal Democrats will in effect set the terms of negotiation in these first few days.

"They will decide with whom they want to negotiate first," he says, adding that they may speak to both simultaneously.

He says they may be able to broadly call the shots on whether they would support a minority government or demand a coalition in return for their backing.

Gordon Brown might have to reach across the party divide for support

During the election campaign, leader Nick Clegg repeatedly said the party with the "biggest mandate" should get the right to govern.

Speaking on Friday morning, he said that he "stuck" by that position and that the Conservatives, having won the most seats and votes, should have first right to try and form a government in the "national interest".

Many commentators have interpreted his comments as suggesting he would not "prop-up" a government led by Mr Brown even though his predecessor Lord Ashdown has suggested his party is "too far apart" from the Conservatives.

Mr Clegg has only said that he will push for a "fairer" Britain in terms of taxes, the political system, schooling and banking reform.

Dr Tim Bale, lecturer in politics at Sussex University, believes an alliance between the parties describing themselves as "progressive" - Labour and the Lib Dems - is possible.

Potentially, he says, they could argue that together they have secured nearly 55% of the vote.

"If the Lib Dems play it cleverly, they can actually present this as the majority solution for Britain and a much more stable solution than a Conservative minority government," he adds.

IF GORDON BROWN RESIGNS

The Conservatives have failed to win an overall majority but have a clear lead in terms of the number of seats and share of the vote. David Cameron is to set out at 1430 BST how he will seek "to form a government that is strong and stable with broad support that acts in the national interest".

If Mr Cameron gets the support of the Lib Dems it is expected Gordon Brown would concede defeat and resign as prime minister. The Queen would then invite David Cameron - as current Leader of the Opposition - to try to form a government.

HOW MIGHT AGREEMENT BE REACHED?

If the Conservatives fall just a few seats short of a majority, Mr Cameron's first port of call might be the unionist parties in Northern Ireland.


The country would not readily forgive them for forcing a second election - the parties will be mindful of that and a deal will be struck

The Conservatives have already formed an electoral alliance with the Ulster Unionist Party, although it remains unclear how far the Democratic Unionists would go to back the Tories.

Nick Robinson said if the Conservatives were to align with the Democratic Unionists and the single Independent Unionist MP, this would form an estimated bloc of 315 seats.

Dr Tim Bale, politics lecturer at Sussex University, says the DUP's core support is made up of working class voters who would be "badly hit" if the Conservatives withdrew a lot of public spending from the province.

During campaigning, the Scottish and Welsh nationalists have ruled out joining a formal coalition. Instead, they see voting on an issue-by-issue basis as their best opportunity to get the best deal for their constituents.
David Cameron and Nick Clegg
David Cameron may have to get Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg on side

Again, Mr Bale believes this could present Mr Cameron with difficulties because they are "some way to the left" of the Conservatives.

So, Mr Cameron might find himself dealing with Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats.

Mr Clegg's party is likely to be in a strong position to say whether they would support a minority government or demand a coalition in return for their backing.

Electoral reform - a long-standing Lib Dem demand - could still prove a sticking point. The Conservatives are opposed to the idea but might have to concede some ground to strike a deal.

The BBC's deputy political editor James Landale says the Tories might agree, for example, to a referendum on reforming the system while reserving the right to campaign against it.

However, Mr Bale says even if the Conservatives do manage to form a government, "its durability and stability has to be called into question".

"It's not going to have a very big cushion of votes to see it through some very difficult times, [involving] pending cuts obviously but also some of the legislation it wants to put through is going to be quite controversial," he said.

BY WHEN MUST THE GOVERNMENT BE FORMED?

There is no formal deadline for when an administration must be formed but a key date is 25 May, when the Queen's Speech is due to set out the government's priorities during the parliament.

However, Dr Ruth Fox, director of the Hansard Society's parliament and government programme, believes it will be clear within days whether there will be a possibility of a deal between the parties.

"That will determine the direction of government," she says. But the finer details of policy might be worked out later.

Professor Hazell says that while the public is used to elections being over in a day or so, negotiations to form a government in a hung parliament could take between a week and 10 days.