Permit Me To Make A Difference

Europe is torn between essential solidarity and national egoism

Timothy Garton Ash: Europe is torn between essential solidarity and national egoism | Comment is free | The Guardian

This situation is now unsustainable for everyone, whether within the Eurozone or still out in the cold


Everything is being stress-tested in this crisis. Europe, too. The weak points in the way the European Union has been put together, politically and economically, over the 20 years since the world changed in 1989, are all showing up. As we saw with the investment banks last autumn, if one bulkhead bursts, others are likely to follow.

Start with the eurozone. To those that have it, the euro has been a source of stability and strength in this storm. Aspirants to membership of the eurozone, like Poland, pray that they were already members. Even in Britain, a discussion has revived about whether or not we would be better off with the euro. Yet at the same time, the stresses between different members of the eurozone are becoming acute. They go back to its original design.

Asked for the first lesson he draws from Japan's decade of stagnation, a leading Japanese analyst says: you need the closest possible co-ordination between your monetary and your fiscal authority. The eurozone has one monetary authority but 16 different national fiscal authorities. They are, in practice, only loosely bound by a growth and stability pact, while subject to intense domestic political pressures - for democratic politics in Europe are still almost entirely national. This has consequences. So, for example, because eurozone governments have behaved differently over the years, their bonds have been valued somewhat differently in the markets. In times of crisis, these tensions increase. Safety first, says the investor. So even if the Greek government offers me a better return for lending it money, I may prefer to lend to the German government. The more investors think that way, the greater the difference grows. In the end, something has to give.

One way out of this, recently advocated by George Soros and others, is to create a single eurozone government bond. Since that would include weaker and riskier governments, Germany would have to pay slightly more to borrow the money it needs through such a bond. Now imagine how that will play with German voters. What, as Germany plunges into recession, we, the German taxpayers, must pay to save Greeks or Italians from the consequences of their own fiscal irresponsibility? Unerhört! Unmöglich! So the politicians who have to make this decision would pay the price in the European elections this summer and the federal election this autumn. For them, there are no votes in Greek or Italian gratitude. In short, because we have a monetary union but not a political one, decisions that put the long-term European interest before the short-term national interest are at once more needed and less rewarded.

Even more dramatic is the predicament of the east central European countries that joined the EU over the last decade but are not yet (with the exception of Slovakia and Slovenia) in the eurozone. In recent weeks, the tempest has hit them with a vengeance. Far from finding safety through being aboard the good ship EU, their close financial relationship with western Europe has become part of their problem.

Twenty years ago, after the velvet end of communism in 1989, they set out to build capitalism without capital. Therefore they opened up liberally to western investment. Most of their bigger banks now have western owners or majority shareholders. Hit by a financial crisis whose origins did not lie in east central Europe, those western owners pulled in their horns. Their core business and home markets came first, while east central Europe fell victim to a blanket warning against "risky emerging markets". Western loans dried up. And as east central European currencies fell, these countries were left struggling to pay the interest on existing loans denominated in western currencies. This is not just a problem for governments and companies. Quite a few middle-class Polish families, for example, have taken out new home loans denominated in Swiss francs. When the value of the Polish zloty collapsed, their interest payments almost doubled overnight.

Of course different countries have fared differently. Hungary and Latvia have already had to go cap in hand to the IMF. The rating agency Standard & Poor's has just cut Latvia's credit rating to junk status, where it joins Romania.

What they all have in common is a sense of desperation and injustice. At a panel discussion in Vienna last weekend, I heard the leader of Hungary's main opposition party, Viktor Orban, complain of "financial protectionism" on the part of the west. That is mild language compared with the populist, anti-western and anti-liberal rhetoric that will flow if this continues.

More dramatic still is the plight of countries not yet in the EU: the third circle, so to speak, of Europe's current hell. Even before the financial crisis hit, the EU's magnetic power was visibly fading in places like Turkey, Ukraine and Bosnia. Now even more so. Ukraine is a mess. There are alarming reports that Bosnia is sliding backwards, with the Bosnian Serb leader stirring the old devils of ethnic separation.

I do not say that the fissiparous tendencies will inevitably triumph in any of the three circles. I do say that the future of the whole European project, as we have known it since the late 1940s, and particularly since 1989, is now at issue. The forces of integration and disintegration, of European solidarity and national egoism, the centripetal and the centrifugal, are finely balanced. There are a few signs of Europe getting its act together, such as last weekend's Berlin summit and yesterday's announcement of proposals for a Europe-wide financial supervisory framework. Optimists will argue that crises have been the catalysts of European integration throughout its history.

It is clear is that we cannot stay where we are. If we don't go forwards we will go backwards. Forwards not, I emphasise, to some idealised United States of Europe, but to a practical construction strong enough to weather the storm. Whether we achieve that will depend on three things: global forces beyond our control, the quality of European leaders, and the space and trust they are afforded by their national electorates.

Earlier this week I visited Jean Monnet's touchingly modest home in the countryside south-west of Paris. It contains reminders of even more dramatic times, including a copy of the 1940 proclamation of a Franco-British Union and an old typewriter on which was drafted one of the original proposals for what became the Schuman declaration - which led to the European Coal and Steel Community, which led to the European Economic Community, which eventually became the European Union. Europe, Schuman famously declared, "will not be made all at once or according to a single plan. It will be built through concrete achievements which first create a de facto solidarity."

Monnet himself liked to quote a saying that there are two kinds of people: those who want to be someone and those who want to do something. Yet even if today's European leaders prove themselves to be of the latter sort, in democracies they can only do as much as we, their national publics and voters, let them do. Whether I look at Britain or Poland, France or Germany, Latvia or Austria, I do not, today, think we will let them do enough.

timothygartonash.com

The Ethics of Defending Hitler

Opinio Juris » Blog Archive » The Ethics of Defending Hitler

by Kevin Jon Heller

A few months ago, I mentioned in the comments to my now-infamous grape soda post that although I have no ethical qualms about advising Dr. Karadzic, I would not have defended Hitler if he had lived to see the inside of an Allied courtroom. That statement led to a number of pointed — and understandable — criticisms, such as this one:

Fair enough, but tell me where is the principle in admitting that as a Jew you wouldn’t represent Hitler, but you are happy to represent somebody else’s Hitler? (No I don’t think Karadzic was a Hitler, but nevertheless some see him that way). Again some pulling the wool over ones own eyes is necessary, its either that or to admit that it is rather unprincipled to be willing to represent one man accused of mass murder, but not another.

I tried to address the issue in more depth during my Bloggingheads.tv interview (the discussion is about 50 minutes in). Most of the comments on the interview focused on the Hitler question — with sentiment divided regarding my position. Indeed, Mark entitled his UN Dispatch post linking to the interview “Would You Defend Hitler?”

Few people, I imagine, will subject themselves to listening to me for an hour. (My students, of course, have no choice.) So I thought I would explain my position here. In my view, the question “would you defend Hitler?” actually consists of two very different questions:

* If Hitler had been prosecuted, would he have deserved a skilled and zealous defense?
* If you think Hitler would have deserved a skilled and zealous defense, would you have volunteered to provide it?

I am very interested to hear how readers would answer those questions. As I have implied, my answers differ: I would answer “yes, unequivocally” to the first question, and “no, definitely not” to the second one. The first question is easy for me: when an adversarial criminal-justice system chooses to prosecute someone, that person deserves a skilled and zealous defense no matter how serious his or her alleged crimes. Indeed, I think the obligation to provide such defense inheres in the very form of the adversarial criminal trial. (Hence the name of the system.)

To be sure, there are non-legal methods for dealing with heinous criminals — as most people know, Churchill initially favored summarily executing leading Nazis over providing them with fair trials. I am glad the Allies decided to create the IMT instead, because I believe (as Justice Jackson eloquently insisted) that the Allies needed to show the Germans and the rest of the international community that they were better than the Nazis. But, to be honest, I would not have been particularly troubled by Churchill’s solution: at least he would not have cloaked the summary executions in the mantle of legality. The executions would have been political justice pure and simple, the rightness of which would have been for the world to judge.

The second question is where things become more complicated for me. Although I believe Hitler would have deserved a skilled and zealous defense had he lived to be prosecuted, I simply could not have defended him. A defense attorney does not have to believe that his (or her) client is innocent to provide him with a zealous defense. A defense attorney does not have to like his client to provide him with a zealous defense. But a defense attorney cannot provide his client with a zealous defense unless he is is capable of reconciling himself to the possibility that his efforts might lead to his client being acquitted. The ability to accept that possibility is, I believe, the sine qua non of effective representation. It is not enough for a defense attorney to have an abstract commitment to the idea that every defendant deserves a skilled and zealous defense. Nor is it enough for a defense attorney to represent a defendant because he believes that, no matter how skilled and zealous the defense, an acquittal is unimaginable. On the contrary, a defense attorney has to be able to say to himself “my commitment to the idea that every defendant deserves a skilled and zealous defense is so strong that I will be able to live with myself if, as a result of my representation, my client is acquitted.” If he cannot say that — and mean it — he has no business representing that defendant.

And that is where I fail the test concerning Hitler. I believe that I could zealously defended any of history’s other mass murderers — the Saddam Husseins, Pol Pots, and Pinochets of the world. But for personal reasons, not legal or ethical ones — I’m Jewish, my family is originally from Poland and Russia, I had family (albeit distant) perish in the Holocaust — I simply could not have defended Hitler and lived with myself if, as a result of my representation, he had been acquitted.

Does that make me a hypocrite? To be honest — yes, it does. I completely agree with what one of the commenters at Bloggingheads.tv said (I am combining two of his or her comments):

The whole premise of an international court is that prosecutions transcend particular religious, political and ethnic identities. In other words, everyone (or no one) is a Jew in a Hitler prosecution and everyone (or no one) is a Tutsi in the Rwanda genocide… I don’t think “I am Jewish” justifies the recusal. If you really believe that genocide is genocide is genocide, i.e., a crime against humanity, you are participating in a trial for the sake of humanity, not for the sake of Jews or Rwandans or Bosnians.

I have no defense to that argument, other than to admit that I am not always capable of living up to my own ethical ideals. I wish my commitment to the idea that all defendants deserve a skilled and zealous defense allowed me, in good conscience, to provide such a defense to anyone, even — perhaps especially — to Hitler. I wish my commitment to the idea that the lives of those who are close to me are no more valuable than the lives of others meant that I could view Hitler’s crimes as no different than the crimes of Saddam Hussein, Pol Pot, or Pinochet. They simply don’t.

I don’t think I’m alone in my limitations. In my experience, all defense attorneys have the one kind of case or the one kind of defendant they simply cannot bring themselves to defend. (To offer a humorous example, I know a federal public defender in Arizona who can defend absolutely anyone — except people who blow up waterfalls in national parks. It happens more than you might imagine.) My exception is Hitler. Fortunately, I am far from the only defense attorney in the world. There are many others who are not Jewish and who probably could in good conscience provide Hitler with a skilled and zealous defense. And for that I’m grateful, because it gets me off the hook. The goal is to ensure that all defendants receive such a defense, no matter how heinous their alleged crimes — not to require individual defense attorneys to put themselves in situations where, justifiably or not, their representation would be less zealous than professional ethics require. So as long as there are other skilled attorneys available to defend the Hitlers of the world, I see nothing wrong in recognizing that even the most zealous defense attorney has his or her limits. Despite suggestions to the contrary, defense attorneys are humans, too.

As for what I would do if the Allies had prosecuted Hitler and no other defense attorney in the world would defend him — that I’d have to think about…

Asymmetric Legal Enforcement in Gaza

Opinio Juris » Blog Archive »

As this BBC report suggests, investigating war crimes in the Israel-Gaza conflict is a pretty much hopeless task because there is no single entity with the expertise, knowledge, and legitimacy to find out the “truth.” Any investigation, whether it is the UN or the ICC or Human Rights Watch, will be simply dismissed by the two sides as biased. So I rashly predict that there will be no international investigation. This leaves us with the national mechanisms, which is what UN Secretary-General Ban has said is the proper level of investigation. But this means, in effect, that only Israelis are subject to law of war-enforcement measures.

Israel at least has a mechanism for conducting investigations of its own people who might have committed war crimes Its armed forces are governed by the law of war and its armed forces are subject to military command and control as well as civilian judicial review. Indeed, if it were subject to ICC jurisdiction, Israel would have a decent case for claiming to have fulfilled its duty to investigate and punish war crimes committed by its nationals or on its territory.

The Deputy Spokesman at the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Andy David, told the BBC that “Israel investigates all its actions regardless of outside calls.” He said the country did not need “external intervention to conduct any investigation”.

He said: “Israel acts according to international laws and with highest regards to morality during combat, even beyond the requirement of the law.”

A spokesperson for the Israeli army said the hits near the UN school and on the UN compound were being investigated.

The same cannot be said for the Palestinians. Notice this response:

The Israeli army, and a number of human rights groups, say Hamas violated the rules of war by using civilians as human shields.

Human Right Watch says Hamas has done nothing to investigate.

A senior Hamas official, Ahmed Youssef, said allegations of violations were “completely baseless and nonsense”, the result of the “Israeli propaganda machine of fabrication”. He said there were “no violations by Hamas.”

Mr Youssef added: “It was ridiculous to say human shields were used. No Palestinian would use another Palestinian as a human shield”.

He said Human Rights Watch was not a credible institution, taking its findings from Israel. “They need to ask the people of Gaza what happened,” he said.

I wish I could believe Mr. Youssef, but any lawyer would find this response lacking, and it doesn’t seem to fulfill the requirements of conducting national investigations under the ICC Statute.

Therefore, one of the ironies here is that Israelis are much more likely to be held accountable and punished for violations of the laws of war than any Palestinian. This does not mean the Israelis have perfect law compliance. But it is almost certainly true that Israelis actually face the possibility of legal punishment, whereas it seems fairly clear that no Palestinan does.

Obama Administration Will Oppose Extending Judicial Review to Afghanistan

Opinio Juris » Blog Archive » Obama Administration Will Oppose Extending Judicial Review to Afghanistan

by Julian Ku

Again, this news is not exactly shocking:

The Obama administration has told a federal judge that military detainees in Afghanistan have no legal right to challenge their imprisonment there, embracing a key argument of former President Bush’s legal team.In a two-sentence filing late Friday, the Justice Department said that the new administration had reviewed its position in a case brought by prisoners at the United States Air Force base at Bagram, just north of the Afghan capital. The Obama team determined that the Bush policy was correct: such prisoners cannot sue for their release.

Jack Balkin, who is quoted in the article, notes that it is too soon to tell what the full position of the administration will be on these questions. And I agree that it would be odd for the U.S. to give up its argument now. It can always backtrack later, but if it waives its argument now, it is going to be very tricky to “take back” the judicial review genie.

Still, we can at least see the outlines of a mini-trend: Announce the closure of Gitmo, but quietly maintain a system of renditions and overseas facilities like Bagram to hold people who you really don’t want to release or whom you really need to interrogate.

The Administration might be thinking that, as long as it introduces “humane” standards for confinement in Bagram, and makes sure renditions are to places where there isn’t torture, and comes up with a better administrative system for sorting out who should be detained, the existence of judicial review won’t matter much.

This sounds like a good argument! But it is the same one that the Bush Administration made over Gitmo for the past seven years. I suppose Obama may get a pass on this, but he doesn’t deserve one.

No credit check month

Offers of easy credit are bad news for the poor | smh.com.au

It's "No credit check month" at Radio Rentals. If you go to its website, the first thing that greets you is a big sign assuring customers that they can apply for the lease of a plasma television, fitness equipment or "computers plus more" without having their credit record checked.

The company claims this isn't being irresponsible. What garbage.

Anybody who claims that this sort of behaviour is responsible or ethical is talking absolute twaddle. It is subprime greed writ small.

The irresponsibility of lending money without proper credit checks is underlined by the fact that other financial institutions have argued that the Federal Government should make more information on personal credit histories available to enable them to be more responsible lenders.

The sad thing is that "No credit check month" is not a one-off. It is a symptom of a wider problem, stretching beyond just one company. It represents a business model which is predicated on maximising profit by appealing to those doing it tough, that just a bit more debt might be the gateway to the good life.

A review by the Victorian Government estimated the total amount of credit lent by the small loans industry at between $50 million and $100 million a year in Victoria alone. Many small lenders and lease companies specifically design their products to fall outside existing credit regulations.

Organisations such as Radio Rentals claim that they run the risk of the loss if the client is not able to repay the loan or keep up payments on the lease. But the loss encountered by the company is small compared to the financial, emotional and social loss of those who enter an unsustainable debt spiral because of irresponsible lending practices by those who should know better.

Radio Rentals may bear a loss in the event of a default even though the business model of such firms means that they will have the original asset returned to them. But the executives of Radio Rentals won't have to explain to their children why debt collectors and sheriffs are at their door when the debt spirals out of control.

Yes, debtors need to show some personal responsibility. But corporate lenders need to show some responsibility as well. As an MP, I see the results of this sort of irresponsible lending. And the financial counsellors attached to churches and organisations such as Lifeline see it more acutely every day.

The Radio Rentals chief executive said it was important that people with poor credit histories have the ability to acquire things such as washing machines and refrigerators. This argument might hold a small amount of water. But it doesn't apply to fitness equipment, game consoles, plasma TVs and the other goods you are tempted with on the website.

Advertising like "No credit checks" specifically and deliberately appeals to the vulnerable in society, who would not be able to find credit from more responsible lenders. It is predatory lending.

The transfer of credit regulation to the Federal Government does provide an opportunity for a more consistent and rational approach to the laws governing lending in Australia including, for the first time, a national responsible lending obligation imposed on all lenders.

The Minister for Corporate Law, Nick Sherry, is basing his plans on world's best practice legislation. But we know that even the best legislation in the world will have its limits. Lenders determined to be irresponsible will find ways around restrictions.

We need stronger legislation. But we also need to condemn those businesses that go out of their way to prey on those on who can least afford it, who skirt around the law and seem not to care about the consequences of their actions.

These days, corporate responsibility is quite fashionable. The Corporate Responsibility Index says this is achieved "when a business adapts all of its practices to ensure that it operates in ways that meet, or exceed, the ethical, legal, commercial and public expectations that society has of business".

Businesses which gear their business model to lending more to people who already have too much debt will need to have a good long look in the mirror before they come anywhere near being regarded as good corporate citizens. (Chris Bowen)

The world shuts up shop

There is an increased focus on domestic issues: cheap, home-based
pursuits are making a comeback, and frippery is out. Australians spent
13 per cent less on eating out in the last quarter of 2008, while a
Manhattan dentist is pitching his teeth-whitening services with the
phrase "Make me an offer".


The challenge is to come up with a
political response that does not make things worse. Western countries
used to preach openness, free movement of people, the breaking down of
barriers. Now the instinct is to raise the shutters and protect voters'
livelihoods. Social unrest is spreading; particularly at risk are the
nations of central and eastern Europe, which fervently embraced the
free market after the Berlin Wall came down. As their workers headed
west, their businesses loaded up on debt to fuel breakneck expansion;
now, they can't meet their obligations.


The world's leaders promise to stop protectionism, but that is not how they are acting. (Adrian Michaels)

IN FLORIDA, a state devastated by tumbling house prices and repossessions, the inhabitants are arming themselves against recession, with requests for concealed-weapon permits up 42 per cent in the past 45 days. In Moscow, the murder rate has climbed by 16 per cent. At Tetsuya's — the most exclusive and expensive restaurant in Sydney — the waiting list has shrunk from three months to 24 hours.

We have been told that we are in the worst economic crisis for 20 years, then 30, then 80, then 100. It can't be long before someone points out that really, all things considered, the Black Death was comparatively pleasant. But beyond the hyperbole, one thing is clear: what began as a financial problem in certain debt-soaked nations is battering the economies of dozens of others, as well as millions of people working in almost every trade. It will change behaviour, and alter the pecking order of the world's economies.

Among the most significant developments has been the realisation that the most prudent countries — such as Germany, Japan and China — will suffer as badly, or even worse than, the spendthrifts. Despite the whiff of hubris that wafted from Berlin when the banks of Britain and America went into meltdown, Germany's economy contracted by up to 2 per cent in the last quarter of 2008, compared with 1.5 per cent for Britain's.

The problem was that the Chinese and Germans were too thrifty: their countries' growth was reliant on sales of goods to countries that were borrowing. Now that Americans can't afford its products, China's exports have collapsed, down 17.5 per cent from a year ago.

Americans can't spend because their house prices have crumpled, their shares have plummeted and banks will not — or cannot — lend them any money. Insecurity is also forcing cutbacks: January saw the highest monthly jump in unemployment in 34 years.

The equally worried Chinese seem to want to save still more: imports into China fell 43 per cent in January compared with the year before. Yet if no one at home or abroad wants to buy their goods, the result will be massive unemployment: some 20 million people are already said to have lost their jobs. As they head home from the coastal manufacturing belt, their Government is trying to force-feed them consumer goods; 80 per cent of all white goods sold in December were subsidised.

As demand dries up, the arteries of global trade are hardening. Lufthansa's air freight division is putting 2600 staff on short-time working, while cargo ships have so many empty containers that shipping rates are a 10th of what they were at last year's peak. The knock-on effects are complex, but painful. "For Rent" signs dot empty storefronts on the once sought-after stretch of New York's Madison Avenue, where the vacancy rate rose by 50 per cent in 2008. A falling appetite for luxury goods helps explain why half of India's 400,000 diamond workers have lost their jobs. More than 40 have committed suicide.

Or take car sales, which Carlos Ghosn, the chief executive of Renault-Nissan, estimates could fall by 21 per cent across the world this year. Car companies are begging governments for hand-outs — but that won't shift their products from showrooms. Among other things, lower car sales mean fewer catalytic converters, which means that platinum does not need to be mined so intensively and Anglo Platinum, which operates mostly in South Africa, is axing 10,000 jobs.

Migrant workers are being asked to leave countries, which will mean a fall in remittances, a lifeline for the world's poorest people. Africans working in the developed world have been sending back up to $40 billion a year to support their impoverished relatives, but the World Bank predicts that this could drop substantially this year.

There is an increased focus on domestic issues: cheap, home-based pursuits are making a comeback, and frippery is out. Australians spent 13 per cent less on eating out in the last quarter of 2008, while a Manhattan dentist is pitching his teeth-whitening services with the phrase "Make me an offer".

The challenge is to come up with a political response that does not make things worse. Western countries used to preach openness, free movement of people, the breaking down of barriers. Now the instinct is to raise the shutters and protect voters' livelihoods. Social unrest is spreading; particularly at risk are the nations of central and eastern Europe, which fervently embraced the free market after the Berlin Wall came down. As their workers headed west, their businesses loaded up on debt to fuel breakneck expansion; now, they can't meet their obligations.

The world's leaders promise to stop protectionism, but that is not how they are acting. Britain and Italy are propping up their car industries while professing opposition to protectionism. Congress wants to protect the American steel industry; the French Government is spending more on newspaper advertising. However restless they are, electorates need to remember that a lack of protectionism lay behind a huge increase in prosperity for millions of people. That is not easy when jobs are being lost.

A cleaned-up banking system is a top priority — but the debate has only just started about how our banks are to look, who will run them and how they will be regulated. "The history of financial crises," warns Michael Pettis, professor of finance at Peking University, "shows a mismanagement of the regulatory framework that comes out of them."

Above all, consumers are somehow going to have to change their behaviour. Americans are certain to be more prudent for now, but they need to maintain a hostile attitude to debt when the immediate crisis is over. It will be just as hard to persuade the Chinese, Japanese and Germans to start spending to supplement export-led growth with domestic demand. "The world doesn't need more stuff to sell," explains Professor Pettis, "it needs more buyers."

As they mature, Asian economies will in time have better pension and health systems, which will help persuade people that there is a safety net for hard times, and tease money out from under the mattress. "Surplus countries have to spend their income and enjoy themselves," says Charles Dumas, an analyst at Lombard Street Research. "The purpose of an economy is to consume." Right now, though, the main objective is survival. (Adrian Michaels)

Nationalisation in America?

Obama tries to fulfill his promises, making a change. So far, he has closed Guantanamo (Bravo!), injecting some funds to the collapses financial institution (debatable..some people are pro to this action but others are contra. And, now he is going to launch tax-cuts. Besides, he is planning to give a financial support for some states to prevent them from the negative effects of the economic crisis. It seems, from now on the governmnet will have much more intervention. Will the US be a socialist country ("socio-democrat" as it is practiced in the Western European countries?

Here is an article by Anne Davies.
 
BARACK Obama will this week deliver the most important speech of his youthful presidency when he tries to reassure Americans that his economic strategy is sound, even as the pressure builds to nationalise some of the US banks or take large stakes in them.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Citigroup is in talks with federal officials that could result in the US Government owning between 25 and 40 per cent of the struggling bank.

Bank of America, which is also rumoured to be fragile, has denied it has sought a further injection of federal funds.

Although it is not formally a State of the Union address, because he has been in office for just over a month, Mr Obama will address the nation on Tuesday (Wednesday noon Melbourne time).

The stimulus package, a foreclosure amelioration package and the bare bones of the bank bail-out mark II are in the public domain. Mr Obama must now convince the American public that these measures will work.

Overnight, Australian time, he will lay claim to the mantle of fiscal responsibility when he details his plan to cut the US deficit from $US1.6 trillion ($A2.4 trillion) in 2009, or 10 per cent of gross domestic product, to a third of that level by 2013.

The plan will rely heavily on winding back spending on the Iraq war and ending Bush-era tax cuts for those earning more than $US250,000. Under US law, the tax cuts to the wealthy will lapse unless they are renewed in 2010.

Mr Obama's job will be to balance being frank about the problems with not frightening the markets further, even though few believe the US economy has touched the bottom of this recession.

Top of the list will be his attitude towards nationalisation. The very whisper of the word has been enough to send the share price of the major banks tumbling in the past week. Citigroup's shares hit $US2 on Friday, after the Senate banking committee chairman Chris Dodd seemed to leave open the door to nationalisation.

The White House has ruled it out - for now. "This Administration continues to strongly believe that a privately held banking system is the correct way to go," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said on Friday.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been seeking to shore up US access to credit during her visit to China, telling her hosts: "We are truly going to rise or fall together."

"Our economies are so intertwined," Ms Clinton said in an interview with Shanghai-based Dragon Television, "it would not be in China's interest" if the US were unable to finance deficit spending to stimulate its stalled economy.

Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal, a rising star in the Republican Party, said he would reject $US100 million aid for unemployment benefits for his state because it would cost the state more in the long term. In contrast, California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, also a Republican, praised the package, saying it was necessary for California's recovery.

Mr Obama plans to announce overnight that former Secret Service agent Earl Devaney, who helped expose lobbyists' corruption at the Interior Department, is his pick to oversee the $US787 billion economic stimulus plan as chairman of the new Recovery Act Transparency and Accountability Board.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

I like this cartoon explaining very well the cause of the collapsed of
American economy. A friend of mine said that the federal reserve is
just going to print the money to pay the bail. This will not happen if
banks were not easy to give loans just to anyone. Actually, the federal
reserve is illegal, it is not even part of the government. The Fed is
just a group of banks that decide how much money to print and how much
to sell money for. Under the constitution of America this is illegal.
He added that only congress is allowed to do this. By taking the money,
the government controls the banks, and with the control the government
could make the bank not give the money so they can keep control.
Actually the source of the mortgage problem in America, he said, is the
institutions that the previous government has created, Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac. They are government companies that setup loans. It seems
complicated....government tried to help and ended up with a troublesome
situation....

Bail-out things....No soup for responsible people

I like this cartoon explaining very well the cause of the collapsed of
American economy. A friend of mine said that the federal reserve is
just going to print the money to pay the bail. This will not happen if
banks were not easy to give loans just to anyone. Actually, the federal
reserve is illegal, it is not even part of the government. The Fed is
just a group of banks that decide how much money to print and how much
to sell money for. Under the constitution of America this is illegal.
He added that only congress is allowed to do this. By taking the money,
the government controls the banks, and with the control the government
could make the bank not give the money so they can keep control.
Actually the source of the mortgage problem in America, he said, is the
institutions that the previous government has created, Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac. They are government companies that setup loans. It seems
complicated....government tried to help and ended up with a troublesome
situation....



PS : Sorry, I forgot where I picked up this pic but it is Mike Lester's art work..

Peace is still far away from Israel

Netanyahu given chance to rule | The Australian

Kadima won the most number of seats of any party in last week's election - 28 compared to Likud's 27 - but the Right bloc of parties, led by Likud, won more seats than the Centre-Left bloc, led by Kadima.

This left Mr Peres with the job of choosing which leader was most likely to form a stable coalition government.

But all leaders - including Mr Netanyahu and Mr Lieberman - have publicly said they want a broad coalition that includes Kadima. The two men have sufficient experience in Israeli politics to know that unless a coalition government is broad-based, it tends to be short-lived.

Ms Livni's political strategy appears to be to position herself in opposition to be ready to try to increase her support in any future election rather than be subject to the fortunes of a government dominated by Mr Netanyahu and influenced by Mr Lieberman.

Ms Livni and Mr Netanyahu have strongly different views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Ms Livni is more aligned to the position of the Obama administration, which wants to seek a two-state solution, while Mr Netanyahu is publicly very sceptical of any such solution.

Yesterday, Mr Peres met faction leaders from 10 parties that won seats last week. But given that two of the Centre-Left's largest parties - Kadima and Labour - have opted to go into opposition, it was inevitable Mr Netanyahu would be given the task.

Mr Lieberman yesterday met Mr Peres and told him he recommended Mr Netanyahu as leader. But he added: "We recommend Benjamin Netanyahu only in the framework of a broad government. We want a government of the three biggest parties, Likud, Kadima and Yisrael Beiteinu."

Outgoing Defence Minister Ehud Barak, leader of the Labour Party, added to the general sense of uncertainty when he told a meeting of Labour members of the Knesset: "The picture is complicated and disturbing when Yisrael Beiteinu is the one to recommend who Israel's next prime minister will be. We are left with only one option, and that is to decide not to recommend anyone for the premiership."

Meanwhile, US senator John Kerry, chair of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, became the first senior US politician to visit Gaza since the 22-day war with Israel. He joined two other US congressmen, Keith Ellison of Minnesota and Brian Baird of Washington.

During talks with relief officials at the main UN compound in Gaza City, Senator Kerry was handed a letter from Hamas, addressed to President Barack Obama.

Senator Kerry did not meet any Hamas representatives and stressed that his trip to the impoverished territory, which no US official had visited for years, did not indicate a shift of policy towards Hamas, which is listed by the US as a terrorist organisation.

carpe diem

Enjoy the present! How so? anyway, I read a blog discussing about time and being. These two topics are heady to discuss. He said that time is not moving..anyway his thoughts brooded over me this afternoon...um...

Badvista campaign

What's wrong with Microsoft Windows Vista? — BadVista

Obama cartoon

BBC NEWS | Americas | NY Post sorry for 'Obama' cartoon

The New York Post newspaper has apologised to readers offended by a cartoon some people say was a racist depiction of President Barack Obama.

Cartoonist Sean Delonas drew police having shot dead a chimp, saying "they'll have to find someone else to write the stimulus bill".

The paper said it had been meant to "mock an ineptly written" bill.

Commentators had denounced the cartoon, and protesters picketed the newspaper's headquarters.

"To those who were offended by the image, we apologise," the paper said in an editorial.

However, the paper went on to accuse "some in the media and in public life who have had differences with the Post in the past" of using the row over the cartoon "as an opportunity for payback".

Facebook Mishaps

Facebook users force 'copyright' plan U-turn | Australian IT

FACEBOOK has withdrawn controversial changes to its terms of service after receiving a storm of complaints from users of the social networking website.
Tens of thousands of posters protested after an unannounced change seemed to grant Facebook the right to control and use the information posted by account holders on the site for ever, even if they had cancelled their accounts.

Users feared that the new terms gave Facebook the right in perpetuity to use their photos, messages and other content for marketing or to sell to advertisers.

Facebook announced last night that it was reverting immediately to the old terms of service, which included the crucial sentence: "You may remove your user content from the site at any time. If you choose to remove your user content, the license granted above will automatically expire, however you acknowledge that the company may retain archived copies of your user content."

Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder and CEO of Facebook , wrote on a blog: "A couple of weeks ago, we revised our terms of use, hoping to clarify some parts for our users. Over the past couple of days, we received a lot of questions and comments about the changes and what they mean for people and their information. Based on this feedback, we have decided to return to our previous terms of use while we resolve the issues that people have raised."

He added: "We think that a lot of the language in our terms is overly formal and protective."

The terms of use were updated on February 4 but the move was not noticed until a consumer rights blog pointed it out last Sunday.

Objections quickly mounted as it was noted that no other mainstream social network took such a hard line with their terms of use. There are more than 175 million regular users of Facebook.

Mr Zuckerberg added on the blog: "In reality, we wouldn't share your information in a way you wouldn't want. The trust you place in us as a safe place to share information is the most important part of what makes Facebook work. Our goal is to build great products and to communicate clearly to help people share more information in this trusted environment."

457 visas 'may cost local-born jobs'

457 visas 'may cost local-born jobs' | Australian IT

 
Paul Maley | February 20, 2009

AUSTRALIA'S record intake of temporary skilled migrants during the economic downturn could boost the number of Australian-born unemployed, as research suggests it is being used as a "back door" to permanent entry by low-wage workers.
The claim comes from Monash University population expert Bob Birrell, who said more of Australia's permanent skilled migrants were being sourced from the 457 visa program, which was drawing on workers from low-wage countries in increasing numbers. The visas are widely used in the ICT industry.

"People at the lower end of the spectrum are becoming permanent residents," Professor Birrell said. "They're vulnerable to exploitation because the employer knows they're not going to quibble with what he's offering them because they're desperate to get the permanent resident nomination."

As the global recession worsens, Professor Birrell said it was time for the Rudd Government to rethink its record high migration intake.

He said the tough economic climate would give employers added incentives to employ or retain cheap overseas labour in the place of local workers.

Professor Birrell, a long-time critic of a high migration quota, said the research, which was co-authored by Ernest Healy and 457 visa expert Bob Kinnaird, was in response to Immigration Minister Chris Evans's decision in December to give priority to migrants with a job or with critically needed skills.

That decision was seen as an alternative to cutting the migrant quota, an option flagged by Kevin Rudd last year in response to the worsening economic conditions.

Last May, Senator Evans announced an increase in the permanent migration program of 37,500. The increase brought the total number of skilled migrants to 133,500, plus 56,500 family reunion places and 13,500 humanitarian visas.

Overall, Australia is taking more than 200,000 new migrants a year.

In 2007-08, about 58,050 migrants came in under the 457 program, a figure that excludes their family members.

Professor Birrell said, in that year, about 90 per cent of the 17,760 permanent migrants who were sponsored by an employer onshore were former 457 visa holders.

Holders of 457 visas are subject to less stringent language requirements and there is no labour market testing, meaning employers do not have to demonstrate that the position cannot be filled locally.

A minimum salary level of $43,440 applies for most 457 visa workers.

In a trend that has alarmed unions, who fear the 457 program is being exploited by business to undercut wages, the program is increasingly sourcing workers from the developing world.

In 2007-08, 8250 Indian workers came in under the program, compared with 2880 in 2004-05.

Over the same period, the number of Filipino workers jumped from 600 to 5120, and the number of Chinese workers rose from 930 to 3360.

A spokesman for Senator Evans said yesterday the 457 program had sharply declined amid worsening financial conditions. "Figures show that application rates for subclass 457 visas in January 2009 are now 30per cent lower than in September 2008, when the economic downturn struck," the spokesman said.

Furthermore, plans to introduce market rates for 457 workers would effectively make them a more expensive option, the spokesman said.

A cut in next year's migration program was also likely, he added.

Australia's financial system was healthier than other countries

RBA governor Glenn Stevens says the economy faces a 'difficult year ahead' | The Australian

NOTHING could have protected Australia from the fallout of the financial crisis, and we face a difficult year ahead, RBA governor Glenn Stevens says.

And it is unlikely interest rates will drop to zero, he told a House of Representatives Economics Committee hearing.

So many countries have lowered their benchmark interest rates to zero or near enough "that it no longer matters''.

"It is not my present expectation we're going to find ourselves at nothing,'' Mr Stevens said.

Australia's cash rate of 3.25 per cent is one of the higher cash interest rates in the advanced world.

Mr Stevens said that no policy could have protected the economy from the effects of the global economic crisis.

"The deterioration in international conditions was so rapid that no policy response could prevent a period of near-term weakness in the Australian economy or for that matter other economies,'' Mr Stevens said.

"We are being effected by the global downturn and we cannot realistically expect other than weak conditions, at least in the first part of 2009."

"This is a weak near-term outlook to be sure.''

Mr Stevens said large interest rate cuts, the stimulus plans and a lower exchange rate will support demand "increasingly so as the year goes on''.

"Australia will come through this episode not unscathed, but well placed to benefit from this,'' he said.

"Things will be difficult over the next year.

"But as I have said before, the long-run prospects for Australia have not deteriorated by as much as we may all be feeling just now.''

China's growth not yet finished

Mr Stevens said China, one of Australia's biggest trading partners, still had plenty of growth potential.

"China's emergence, for example, has not finished. It has years to run and Australia will benefit from it,'' he said.

"We can have confidence in our long-run future and in our demonstrated ability to adapt to changing circumstances.

"If we retain that, there is no reason for any downturn to be a deep one.''

Australia's financial system was healthier than other countries, he said.

"Credit standards do seem to have tightened further over recent months and banks are seeing the inevitable increase in bad debts as the economy slows.

"But our major financial institutions are still in a strong condition, have access to debt and equity markets, are still earning good profits, and are in position to lend for sound proposals.''

Mr Stevens said housing affordability was likely to improve.

"Our housing sector is not overbuilt; instead there is considerable pent-up demand, and affordability is improving quickly,'' he said.

Mr Stevens said the effects of interest rate cuts - 400 basis points since September last year brought the cash rate to 3.25 per cent - were only beginning to impact.

"Those effects are yet to be seen in many of the figures, though they are being felt in businesses around the country. The effects of the policy adjustments are only beginning.

Economic reverse

A chat with the ex is a good idea | The Australian

BROKE bread with a former prime minister the other day. We share a native habitat, Sydney's lower north shore. We reminisced about old times. He recalled his best bowling figures, 6 for 76, and I mine, 8 for 2 off 10 overs. For cricket tragics, the passage of 50 years does not eliminate memory of one's most gratifying achievements.

Just back from a short trip to Canada, the ex-PM looked roseate and relaxed. He is 40,000 words into his memoirs, though this count may not hold up, since he lets it all rip as he talks into a recorder but plans to cut and edit the transcripts. Asked if he would settle a few scores with his book, he hesitated only briefly before replying, "I don't think so. There's a lot of real stuff to write about."

The former PM talks to a lot of people and is up to date with current events, but in the detached way appropriate for an ex.

I've indulged in this rather long-winded prelude to make the point that the former PM seems entirely content with his formerness and nourishes no fantasies about being monarch in exile. He has opinions, though, and believes Kevin Rudd's $42 billion spending package will do little or nothing to stimulate the economy.

"What would have been a better move?" I asked.

"Set aside $16 billion to compensate the states for suspending payroll taxes for a year."

I was taken aback. Though it has been only a little over 12 months, I had virtually forgotten directness and simplicity as a tool of politics.

But a vague recollection came to me, sharpened subsequently with the aid of Google, of the reaction by Rudy Giuliani, damp squib US presidential candidate but triumphant mayor of New York, when he first heard of our payroll tax from an Australian Financial Review interviewer: "I don't understand that. We have about 20 forms of taxation in New York city and some of them are strange, but nothing like that one."

The federal government started levying a 2per cent tax on wages and salaries paid out by employers in 1941, with the specific purpose of financing child endowments. In 1971 the feds handed the right to tax payrolls over to the states and territories as part of the payback for grabbing their income taxing powers. They immediately doubled the rate.

Nowadays every state and territory has a different starting point and imposes a different taxation rate. South Australia starts earliest, hitting payrolls over $504,000 with a 5.5per cent tax. Tasmania lets its employers pay out $1,010,000 before imposing a 6.1 per cent tax.

Queensland has a sliding scale for payrolls between $850,000 and $3.4 million, which means, I guess, that you jump a bracket if you get careless about hiring a tea lady.

Payroll tax is a major earner, second only to land taxes as a source of revenue for the states and territories.

Being a bit worn down by global thinking, I shaped my thoughts about a suspension of payroll taxes in the context of the effect on myneighbourhood.

At the heart of the lower north shore is the electorate of North Sydney, held by the new shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey, who is almost inordinately proud of it. North Sydney, Hockey boasts, is home to 25,000 small businesses and has the highest proportion among federal electorates of working women and people with professional and trade qualifications.

That's a profile of a community with heavy shocks coming its way in the event of drastic economic reverses.

On the other hand, a cost saving of 6per cent achieved by release from NSW's tax on payrolls over $600,000, plus removal of the considerable cost in time and money of compliance with a complex system, might see many established enterprises remain in the hands of experienced, creative, aspiring (or desperate) individuals, able to employ sufficient staff to hold the line and even to grow and flourish.

Moreover, this admirable outcome might be achieved by the federal Treasury's signing only eight cheques a month, instead of the tens of thousands that will be required just for Sydney's lower north shore, to launch and sustain Rudd's suite of favoured industries: school refurbishing, home insulation, building bicycle tracks. Not to mention the pointillist detail involved in distributing all those $900 handouts.

I am not in a position to say with confidence whether Rudd's $42 billion spending package will stimulate anything. Nor, from the sound of it, is he.

But I know governments will make heavy weather of disbursing that kind of money throughout the country and that the very fact of its availability will inspire unprecedented snorting at the trough.

When coaching young cricketers, Mark Taylor constantly urged them: "Keep it simple. Keep it simple."

Pity he didn't go into politics.

the immigration intake will exceed the number of jobs the Commonwealth?

Migrants won't cancel job boost - Gillard | The Australian

THE Federal Government has rejected research which shows its $42 billion economic stimulus package will not save jobs unless Australia's immigration intake is slashed.

In a paper to be released today, demographic experts warn that new permanent and temporary migrant workers will soak up the 90,000 jobs the package is supposed to support.

That is because the immigration intake will exceed the number of jobs the Commonwealth was trying to protect, The Australian Financial Review reports.

The experts advocate cutting the skilled intake to between 40,000 and 50,000 visas - down from a projected 133,500 - and forcing employers who want to import staff to prove that local skills are not available.

"It seems to me that this research could not be right,'' federal Employment Minister Julia Gillard told ABC Television.

"We are expediting the immigration of people who have the skills that we need.''

America and Indonesia

Clinton heralds new era in Jakarta | The Australian

THE US had embarked on a new era of a "robust partnership with Indonesia", which would help Washington "reach out to the Muslim world", Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in Jakarta last night.

After meeting Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda for about 90 minutes, Ms Clinton affirmed that Indonesia was a place where "Islam, democracy and modernity can not only co-exist but can thrive" and drove home the importance of the relationship to the Barack Obama administration.

She also announced that the two countries would be undertaking a review of strategies to encourage democracy in Burma, including working through the medium of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, of which Burma is a member and whose secretariat is in Jakarta.

Declaring that she brought "greetings from President Obama", Ms Clinton will also take home with her a message for her new boss from Mr Wirajuda: the Indonesian Government's fervent hope that the US leader will schedule a trip to Jakarta soon.

"President Obama has a very strong constituency here in Indonesia, and the Government and people of Indonesia would like very much to welcome President Obama on his trip to Indonesia," the Foreign Minister said.

"I will say we cannot wait too long and I wish that Hillary Clinton conveys this to President Obama."

The US President, who attended primary school for several years in the Indonesian capital, has indicated his enthusiasm for a trip to the country and last year told his counterpart, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, how he fondly recalled nasi goreng (fried rice) and bakso (meatball soup) from that time.

And an Obama donor recalled in December that Mr Obama had promised an early trip to Indonesia, the donor telling the respected Politico blog that the then presidential candidate had said his first words, on disembarking from Air Force One in Jakarta, would be the Indonesian for "I am back, dudes".

Ms Clinton's visit to the Indonesian capital, after Japan and ahead of stopovers in South Korea and China, also included a symbolically important meeting late yesterday with ASEAN Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan.

Indonesia is hoping for a stronger US engagement with the grouping, whose constituent states boast a total population of 575 million. There were expectations the Obama administration could even sign up to ASEAN's 1976 Treaty of Amity and

Co-operation, allowing it to take part in the next East Asia Summit, a foreign ministry spokeswoman said.

Noting that the trip was her "first as Secretary of State but not my first to Indonesia", Ms Clinton said it was "wonderful to be back" and that she had "very high hopes for the United States-Indonesia relationship" -- a relationship she went on to describe as entering a new form of "comprehensive partnership".

As well as the fraught issue of Burma, on which she acknowledged neither "sanctions (nor) reaching out to" the military junta had had any effect, the pair discussed climate change, the global financial crisis, the middle east situation in general and Palestine in particular, as well as disarmament issues.

"I'm very committed to the relationship between the two countries," Ms Clinton said. "The Obama administration wants to reach out to the entire world. The United States and Asia have a common future -- the question is, how will we share it?"

She is due to meet Dr Yudhoyono at the presidential palace this morning to carry Mr Obama's greetings directly to the Indonesian leader, after accepting a declaration from the Foreign Minister that the country was "honoured and humbled" by her visit.

With national parliamentary elections less than two months away, and presidential polls to follow, Indonesia's political landscape is wide open, giving Ms Clinton's robust defence of its progress towards democracy an added edge.

The US-based Asia analyst Walter Lohman wrote yesterday that Indonesia was "a developing democracy under assault from a determined Islamist minority", noting that the Secretary of State's visit could help balance this tendency.

Clinton strikes right note with Indonesians

Clinton strikes right note with Indonesians | theage.com.au

* Tom Allard, Jakarta
* February 20, 2009

HILLARY Clinton is barely halfway through her first overseas trip as US Secretary of State, but her megawatt celebrity and finely honed political skills already suggest she will be a most unusual, and formidable, diplomat.

Indonesia has been entranced by the former US first lady, who has struck a tone befitting the predicament of a chastened superpower battling a financial crisis of its own making and a tarnished international reputation.

"We know we don't have all the answers," she said. "We are here to listen as well as talk."

And, like the consummate politician she is, Mrs Clinton used her personal story to press home the message of humility and the possibility of US renewal.

At once self-effacing and providing advice to Indonesia as it grapples with its new democracy, Mrs Clinton received hearty applause and sympathetic laughter when she spoke of her defeat to Barack Obama in the hard-fought Democratic Party presidential primary.

"When you have an election, some people win and some people lose," she said. "I've had that experience … and I know how important it is in a democratic system that you accept the results. After an election, you have to find common ground."

Her emergence as Secretary of State in the Obama Administration showed, she said, how rivals could come together.

Mrs Clinton has relished the opportunity to use her celebrity in ways uncommon in the often staid world of diplomacy.

A visit to a poor Jakarta neighbourhood yesterday saw her mobbed by locals, and dozens of junior officials at the Association of South-East Asian Nations secretariat screamed "Hillary, Hillary" as she walked into the building.

She also appeared on a youth variety show called Dahsyat. The title of the show roughly translates as "awesome", and Mrs Clinton's appearance was sandwiched in between performances by pop singers.

Perhaps inevitably in Indonesia, she was asked to sing.

"Here is the problem. If I sing, they will leave," she replied, pointing at the audience of teeny-boppers.

Still, after eight years of "with us or against us" unilateralism from the Bush administration that frequently grated with, and even enraged, the wider world, she is singing an altogether different tune. And Indonesia, at least, is listening.

■ Mrs Clinton also confirmed she would attend an international conference in Egypt on March 2 to help rebuild the Gaza Strip after Israel's offensive there. She said Mr Obama wanted to re-engage in the Middle East after the Bush administration had "not been as active in trying to bring the parties together".

social liberalism

Economy still the main game | The Australian

MALCOLM Turnbull hasn't been around that long. He has only been an MP for four and a bit years. Still, he should know what happened 100 years ago.

The year 1909 is as important in Australian conservative politics as 1944, the year Robert Menzies founded the Liberal Party.

It was the year social liberalism ceased to be a force in national politics and economics became the dividing line.

It was the year Alfred Deakin folded his liberal Protectionists into the conservative Free Traders. Until then, federal politics had been, in Deakin's phrase, like playing cricket with "three XIs". Since 1909, there have been two teams, Labor and conservative.

Deakin's party had lost its constituency. The Free Traders had lost their leader. A marriage of convenience ensued. Social liberalism has been the unwanted child in the house ever since.

Like all children, social liberalism can be noisy, and it enjoys being the centre of attention. Like children, too, it has a certain appeal. But social liberalism doesn't win elections. Since 1909 they have largely been battles about economic management.

There are those in the modern Liberal Party who have hailed Turnbull's leadership as a victory for social liberals. It may well be, but that doesn't mean the Newspoll ratings have improved. Indeed, Newspoll shows the Liberals have lost their ace: their standing as economic managers. That only happens to conservative parties when catastrophe strikes.

Last August, as Brendan Nelson's leadership entered its dying days, Kevin Rudd turned up on Nine's Today show with some generous advice for his opponents.

"It's a matter for those guys to turn their current soap opera into something else," the Prime Minister said. "It's not a question of personalities; it's a question of policies."

The soap opera has kept running. The current plot line asks, "can corporate raider Malcolm recast the Liberal Party in his own image?"

Turnbull may be arrogant but voters would not care if he had a plan. If voters did not care, neither would his colleagues. Look at the example of that other social Liberal, Jeff Kennett, at elections in 1992 and 1996. They were won on economics.

Rudd has a response to the global financial crisis. It may well be firing all his bullets off at once, as Turnbull says, but he still has a plan.

Turnbull isn't even firing blanks. He's firing duds. Economics is the only thing that matters now. Social liberalism is a luxury.

Kite Runner

I doze off, and, when I wake up, I see the sun rising in a buttermilk sky through the window next to the nurses' station. The light slants into the room, aims my shadow toward Sohrab. He hasn't moved.
    "You'd do well to get some sleep," a nurse says to me. I don't recognize her--there must have been a shift change while I'd napped. She takes me to another lounge, this one just outside the ICU. It's empty. She hands me a pillow and a hospital-issue blanket. I thank her and lie on the vinyl sofa in the corner of the lounge. I fall asleep almost immediately. (khaled Hosseini)

Lightness

The world divided into pairs of opposites:

 light/darkness, fineness/coarseness, warmth/cold, being/non-being. One half of the opposition he called positive (light, fine­ness, warmth, being), the other negative. We might find this division into positive and negative poles childishly simple ex­cept for one difficulty: which one is positive, weight or light­ness?

 Parmenides responded: lightness is positive, weight negative.Was he correct or not? That is the question. The only certainty is: the lightness/weight opposition is the most mysteri­ous, most ambiguous of all.

moment of clarity

we have talk earlier.. I have moment of clarity of you but then again mesmerized... only wish to understand you.... please help me?  i will please you... if before anything else... this i promise , you will be amazed eternally,,, this I guarantee. i want you so bad

bookcrossing

Hello icha,

I am the one who left the book (Lolita) in the restrooms - however, I did
not throw it in the bin... now I was really happy, when I received the
notification that someone actually found the book! I hope you will enjoy
reading it! Furthermore, I wish you loads of fun with BookCrossing...
Should you have any questions, don´t hesitate to contact me via the
'private message' function on my bookshelf!
If you like I would appreciate if you would name me as your 'referring
member' - which can be done in the 'edit profile' menu.

Well, I am sending you some snow from Germany... as far as I know, it´s
pretty hot in Melbourne at the moment. (c:

Donald Trump bankcrupts

Donald Trump resigns from board of Trump Entertainment | Business | News.com.au

"overextending and greed. another one bites the dust."

AMERICAN tycoon Donald Trump has quit the board of debt-laden Trump Entertainment Resorts as the company he founded faces possible bankruptcy this week.

"I have nothing to do with it. I'm not in it, I'm not on the board," said Mr Trump, who was chairman.

The reality TV star said he had no idea if there would be a bankruptcy filing.

Trump Entertainment faces a February 17 deadline to make a $US53 million ($81 million) bond payment, a target extended four times since the initial grace period ended on December 31.

The company was locked in talks with its debtors on the weekend but if an agreement is not reached, it may file for bankruptcy early this week.

Or the bondholders may force it into involuntary bankruptcy.

Trump, who controls 28 per cent of the stock, said he offered to buy the rest of the company and was turned down by bondholders.

Law enforcement and piracy

Sydney man faces DVD piracy charges | Australian IT

A MAN has been charged with a string of copyright offences after he was allegedly found recording new-release movies with a video camera at a western Sydney drive-in.
The 26-year-old man was arrested at his home in Broad Street, Prospect at about 4.45pm (AEDT) on Friday, police said.

Police allege that on numerous occasions over the past five months, the man recorded several new release movies at the drive-in.

He then allegedly uploaded them to the internet for others to download illegally.

The movies allegedly included Beverly Hills Chihuahua, High School Musical 3, Bedtime Stories, Yes Man, Valkyrie, Marley And Me and He's Just Not That Into You.

Police said the recordings had been positively linked to DVDs being sold in Australia, as well as other countries including the US and Britain.

The man has been charged with 18 offences, including possessing a device with intent to make an infringing copy, possessing an infringing copy for distribution, and distributing infringing copies.

He has been bailed to appear in Blacktown Local Court on March 12.

Maximum penalties for copyright offences include a $60,500 fine and/or five years imprisonment per offence.

The Australian Federation Against Copyright Theft (AFACT) said the man's arrest was the result of an intensive investigation by AFACT investigators using digital watermarking technology.

The watermarks identify the cinemas where movies are illegally recorded.

"The importance of preventing the illegal 'camcording' of movies during their cinematic release cannot be overstated," AFACT operations director Neil Gane said.

"Over 90 per cent of pirated movies that first hit the global internet or are sold on streets around the world originate from professional 'cammers' making illegal recordings in cinemas," he said.

"Anyone thinking of illegally camcording a movie should be aware that the technology exists to identify them, track them down and take them to court on criminal copyright charges."

Hillary Clinton is a rock

Hillary Clinton thanks Australia for leadership and sympathises with Victoria fire victims | The Australian

HILLARY Clinton has thanked Australia for its friendship and leadership in Asia as she headed to the region on her first overseas visit as America's top diplomat.

Ms Clinton is breaking with tradition in heading to Asia, rather than Europe or the Middle East, on her maiden voyage as US secretary of state.

She will visit Japan, Indonesia, South Korea and China. Speculation that Australia would also be included has proven to be unfounded.

In a major foreign policy speech before her departure, Ms Clinton signalled Asia Pacific relations would be just as important as trans-Atlantic partnerships for the Obama administration.

"I hope to signal that we need strong partners across the Pacific, just as we need strong partners across the Atlantic,'' she said in a speech to the Asia Society in New York.

"We are, after all, both a trans-Atlantic and a trans-Pacific power.

"Our relationships with each of the countries I'm visiting, and with all of our partners and allies throughout Asia and the Pacific, are indispensable to our security and prosperity."

Ms Clinton flagged a "more rigorous and persistent" commitment to, and engagement with, a region that often felt neglected by the Bush administration.

She made special mention of Australia.

"Let me also thank Australia for its leadership and friendship over decades," Ms Clinton said.

"While I'm not able to visit Australia on this trip, we know that Australia is one of our most trusted allies in the world."

She sympathised with Australians over the devastating Victorian bushfires.

"We want our Australian friends to know that we mourn with them over the loss of innocent lives in this tragedy, and we remain grateful for our work together in the past and what we will do together in the future," she said.

Foreign Minister Stephen Smith welcomed Ms Clinton's visit to the region as "significant".

He expects to meet Ms Clinton when he and Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon travel to Washington for an as yet unscheduled AUSMIN meeting.

BMW will lay off 850 workers

BMW to axe 850 jobs from England factory | The Australian

GERMAN automaker BMW on Monday said it would lay off 850 workers at its plant in Cowley, England, where it makes the Mini, as the global economic slowdown hits demand for the iconic car.

BMW said contracted agency workers on the weekend shift would be affected by the downsizing that will come into force on March 2 when the plant begins operating five days a week instead of seven.

"While Mini has been weathering the economic downturn, it is not immune from the challenges of the current situation," it said.

"Against this backdrop the company felt that a review of its shift patterns was necessary,'' it said, adding: This decision has not been taken lightly."

BMW, which is struggling in its key North American market, has previously said its overall 2008 vehicle sales were down five per cent from the year before, and that Mini sales were off by 35 per cent in January this year.

Aint no reason

www.youtube.com/watch?v=amwVyRH2B8A

I love so much this song...It speaks out..

Telstra and human rights? um...

Telstra attacks human rights record | The Australian

TELSTRA has launched an extraordinary attack on Australia's human rights record, citing the Howard government practice of keeping children in detention as a reason why a charter of rights is needed.

In a submission to the national human rights consultation panel, the country's largest telecommunications company wholeheartedly endorses a charter, arguing it would "provide greater clarity about the protection of human rights in Australia".

Telstra argues the principles of responsible government and the common law - which opponents of a charter say adequately ensure people's rights - are a "soft" foundation upon which to base protections.

So too is the emasculated principle of ministerial responsibility, which has failed to ensure ministers take personal responsibility for government "excess", the telco writes.

Nor can the prospect of regular judgment of the electorate adequately protect the citizenry.

"The more responsive but equally unsatisfactory notion of responsibility to parliaments - the slim convention of ministerial responsibility - is also no substitute for clearly articulated, enshrined, human rights protections."

Telstra argues there has been an erosion of rights and freedoms, warning there "is no guarantee that these rights will not be further eroded in years to come".

In a swipe at the Howard government, with which Telstra had a rocky relationship, the company takes issue with John Howard's 2000 claim that Australia's human rights record was "quite magnificent".

"There have been several well-publicised infringements of human rights in Australia, including amongst them, the incarceration of children in immigration facilities," says the submission.

"The available data suggests that Australia's human rights record does not compare overwhelmingly favourably with other countries."

Telstra's lodged the submission last October. Its relationship with the Rudd Government has been under strain following the company's exclusion from the national broadband network tender.

The memory of disaster fades

We refuse to learn when bushfires burn | The Australian

IT'S one of our fondest contemporary fantasies that - in technology, in ideology, in taste - we've eclipsed the capacities of our forebears. The ancient Romans liked to speak wistfully of the "manners and morals of our forefathers", as if that were sufficient recommendation in itself. We, on the other hand, like to imagine that our forefathers and mothers were rather dimmer than ourselves. Yet, because we respect the past so little, we learn little from it.

And what we do learn we forget too easily, in a haze of sentiment andcondescension.

If this is a sound enough general rule, imagine how strongly it pervades our habits of mind in the aftermath of bushfire catastrophe, when a sudden and unfeigned outpouring of sympathy and activity is almost always followed by a long fallow period of forgetfulness, complacency, buck-passing and neglect. It's a fair bet that a robust independent inquiry will find grievous failures to act on the part of Victorian fire authorities, possibly leading as high as the Premier's office. But if it does, it will simply be echoing the findings of so many past inquiries, inquests and commissions, each of which has attempted to point out basic failures of process, mostly to no end.

Time and again, if you wade through reports from across the country in 2003, or NSW in 1994, or Victoria in 1983 or 1939, the same issues leap to the eye. A persistent failure of co-ordination between rival firefighting authorities. Radios that don't work properly, or which are set to different frequencies. A systematic incapacity to manage hazard-reduction effectively: a failure so intractable, it seems, that almost every inquiry of the past 70 years has been greeted by unfulfilled fuel-reduction quotas, as well as by lines of responsibility so blurred that it's impossible to tell which agency failed to fulfil them.

In a recent retrospective on the 1939 Black Friday bushfires, ABC TV interviewed the chief executive of the Australasian Fire Authorities Council. This worthy gentleman finds the 1939 fires "interesting", chiefly because they show how ill-equipped the old-timers were for the task. Theirs was "a fledging community" with "no effective fire-fighting techniques and no organisation". They had no conception of traditional Aboriginal land management practices, and maintained outdated European attitudes towards the bush. We, with our strategic planning, infra-red scanning, and legions of trucks and aircraft, "are infinitely better off". And we have acquired a veritable cornucopia of new management protocols, with their own distinctive vocabularies: occupational health and safety, risk management, "community partnerships" and so on. Clever us.

As it happens, the testimony of veteran sawmillers to the 1939 Stretton royal commission suggests that remote communities of those days maintained lively debates on the same issues that preoccupy us today. Like us, they pondered what the forest floors looked like in the days before white settlement, and what kind of hazard reduction was necessary to return them to that state. As in our day, there were sharp differences of opinion between advocates of more extensive burning and the view of what the old sawmillers called "the city men" that (in the commission's words) "this burning off causes incalculable damage to the forests". As in our own day, fire danger was exacerbated by a failure to hazard-reduce to agreed levels, on the one hand, and by ill-supervised back-burning on the other.

Battle-weary firefighters will tell you that they've sat through numerous public inquiries, coroners' reports and royal commissions. On each occasion, governments and administrators seemed, miraculously, to fail to take their most important lessons to heart. And so the firefighters acquire an air of profound weariness and cynicism, like the demeanour of worn-down foot soldiers in World War I. They've heard the splendidly attired generals' professional optimism a few times too often, and they no longer believe in it.

In NSW it's fashionable to suggest that our firefighting methods are superior to Victoria's on account of the sharp and timely criticisms advanced in the 1994 bushfire inquiry conducted by the NSW Coroners Office. Yet those who laud that report are highly unlikely to have read it (if only because nowadays it's extremely difficult to obtain). If they had, they'd be aware that few of the coroner's key recommendations were ever acted upon, and that many legislative changes were enacted before the report was released, as if in defiance of it. As a result, there is still no regular standing rural fire service; hazard reduction outside National Parks is still hit and miss; and communications between key agencies at times of crisis are not much better than they were then.

One of the timeless verities of bushfire disasters is that they will involve epic amounts of blame-shifting. This follows the same general principle of forgetfulness. Authorities know that for a few weeks and months after bushfires they are in the spotlight. But as the memory of disaster fades, so does the public's attention. Inept administrators need only to ride out the moment of heightened attentiveness in a blaze of shameless opportunism, ham acting and buck-passing before they can repose in quiet for another five or 10 years.

Everyone is free to participate in this grand game of pass-the-parcel - except, of course, the victims. And so no doubt it's natural that at present a good deal of the blame is being foisted upon them. There are too many people living on the city's fringe; they love the bush too much; they're well-meaning but unworldly, it seems. And yet it's not obvious what the victims of these fires did wrong. They drew up their family fire plans, as they were asked to. They waited, patiently and in retrospect optimistically, for the necessary information on which to implement their plans: information that never came. Instead, they passed their final hours listening to radio stations that failed to issue warnings, or rang hotlines to be told that fires they could see with their own eyes didn't exist.

It's a fine mark of Australians' sense of personal pride and independence that we choose to make decisions of this magnitude on our own responsibility. Indeed, personal judgment is probably the best and most efficient way of making these fateful decisions, since the necessary information is most easily available at the local level, and evacuations are best carried out voluntarily and on a local scale.

The anecdotal evidence suggests that Victorians were let down not by some misguided sense of their own personal capacity, but rather by the failure of responsible authorities to entrust them with the information they needed, and which they were entitled to as citizens. But then, sad to say, that's hardly news.

Yeats

People who lean on logic and philosophy and rational exposition end by starving the best part of the mind

Ten foreign policy predictions for 2009

Global Dashboard » Global system Key Posts » Ten foreign policy predictions for 2009*

Ten foreign policy predictions for 2009*December 29, 2008 | by Charlie Edwards | More on Global system, Key Posts | 4 comments

1. Mexico: The world’s leading narco state will, unnoticed, dissolve into total chaos destabilising the surrounding region.
2. Middle East: February elections in Israel will see Binyamin Netanyahu being voted in while President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be voted out in Iranian elections in June.
3. Asia: H5N1 will return with a vengeance.
4. Bosnia: A growing culture clash between conservative Islam and the country’s avowed secularism will result in an increase in violence in the country.
5. Africa: Robert Mugabe will be assassinated.
6. UK: There will be no election in 2009.
7. Turkey: Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will abandon further attempts to join the European Union and instead turn East and focus on regional diplomacy.
8. Iraq: Elections will be relatively peaceful in much of the country.
9. Somalia: The US or France will be drawn into a short, intense ground war in the South West of the country.
10. Afghanistan: In May Britain will increase the number of troops in the country. In October a European deal with the Obama administration will see France, Germany and Italy do the same.

Who’ll bail out the IMF?

Global Dashboard » Economics and development Global system Key Posts » Who’ll bail out the IMF?

In January 2008, the IMF’s managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, sent out a confidential document to the fund’s 2,400 full-time staff, telling them to get ready for the axe.

The memo said the staff should prepare for the “trauma” of sizeable downsizing, with around a sixth of the staff to be fired, and the staff budget of the fund to be reduced by US$100mn. “This is not a good time for staff”, the memo read. “Their expectation of a full career at the fund in exchange for their unflinching dedication and loyalty is in question.”

The fund had lost the great influence and power it had enjoyed during the 1990s, when it leant billions of dollars to crisis-hit Asian economies. Its power, then, was symbolised in the famous photo of then IMF director Michel Camdessus standing with his arms crossed like a strict schoolmaster, while the elderly Indonesian President Suharto bent over a desk to sign a humiliatingly-punitive IMF bail-out.

Emerging market governments learnt the lesson of that time. Many of them built up huge foreign exchange (FX) reserves, and bought back much of their existing public debt, so that they would never have to genuflect before the IMF. It gradually faded from the headlines and from the markets. “Some of my younger staff don’t even know what the words IMF stand for,” says Richard Luddington, vice-chairman of general capital markets at UBS.

Ousmene Mandeng, head of public sector investment advisory at Ashmore Investment Management, says: “I used to work at the IMF until October. When I left, I had the impression the fund would never play the role it once had in 1998. In hindsight, it seems absurd.”

Scarcity Issues

Global Dashboard » Climate and resource scarcity Economics and development Key Posts » The Feeding of the Nine Billion

The Feeding of the Nine Billion

January 26, 2009 | by Alex Evans | More on Climate and resource scarcity, Economics and development, Key Posts | No comments

Today sees the launch of The Feeding of the Nine Billion, my Chatham House pamphlet on food prices and scarcity issues, which brings a year-long research programme to its conclusion. This morning’s Financial Times has a piece on the report here, and there’s a BBC World Service interview with me here (scroll to 9.42; you need RealPlayer installed).

The report’s key diagnosis is that while food prices have fallen significantly from their peak last year, they remain acutely problematic for poor people and por countries at their current levels - and poised to resume their upwards climb when the world emerges from the downturn. Accordingly, the last thing policymakers can do at this stage is to heave a sigh of relief - on the contrary, they need to treat the current easing in prices as a window of opportunity in which to agree the comprehensive, long-term collective action needed to ensure food security for all in the 21st century.

Long term demand drivers, above all a population set to reach over 9 billion by mid-century and the rising affluence and expectations of a growing ‘gloal middle class’ are half the story, with the World Bank forecasting 50% higher demand for food by 2030.

On the other hand, scarcity issues will present increasing challenges on the supply side. Oil prices are also set to resume their climb after the downturn, given that investment in new production has collapsed as oil prices have fallen, setting the stage for a future supply crunch; food prices can be expected to follow them, as biofuels, fertiliser prices and transport costs all play their part. Climate change, water scarcity and competition for land will all also push prices upwards.

So what needs to be done? The report sets out a ten point agenda for action at the international level and in developing countries, but overall I think of the challenge in four key areas.

The first is to get a 21st century Green Revolution underway, and fast. Spending on agriculture by aid donors and developing country governments has collapsed over the last 25 years; it’s a similar story on R&D. At the same time, we need to move from today’s input-intensive model of agriculture to one that’s instead knowledge-intensive. People always ask whether that means GM crops, and I don’t rule out that they may have a part to play; but for equitability and social resilience, I think more ecologically integrated approaches (like integrated soil fertility management) often score higher.

Second, we need to scale up social protection systems in developing countries. Today, nearly a billion people don’t have enough to eat. But as you can see from the fact that about the same number of people are overweight or obese, the problem is not that there’s insufficient food to go around; rather, it’s that poor people find food prices beyond their reach. Social protection systems are a better bet for developing countries than price controls or economy-wide subsidies because they target help where it’s needed (and don’t break the bank) - but as yet, only 20% of the world’s people have access to them.

Third, we’ve got a lot to do in the trade context. One option that policymakers ought to be thinking about is a globally coordinated system of food stocks - a bit like the IEA’s emergency stocks in the oil context - as a way of building resilience to the spate of export restrictions we saw last summer when panic over food prices really set in. They also need to think about ways of that trade rules can help manage the risk of export suspensions, given that WTO trade rules were really built to resolve disputes over market access, not security of supply. But at the same time, it remains imperative for developed economies - above all the EU and US - to reform their iniquitous farm supprt policies, which structurally undermine developing country agriculture.

Finally, there remains the observation that (as Gandhi once put it), there’s enough for everyone’s need, but not for everyone’s greed. The global consumer class has barely begun to recognise that its western diet, rich in meat and dairy products, is far more resource intensive than everyone else’s diet - whether you’re looking at grain intensity, water use, energy consumption or greenhouse gas emissions. That doesn’t mean everyone has to be vegetarian - but there are nonetheless fundamental issues of fair shares involved. Exactly the same point applies on biofuels: not all biofuels are bad, but inefficient options like corn-based ethanol simply have no place in a sustainable or equitable agriculture system.

I finished this project with the conclusion that the worry that prompted me to do this work in the first place - that scarcity issues would make the future outlook for food much, much harder - is well supported by the data. But in spite of that, I’ve also come away feeling more hopeful than I did when I got started.

Part of the reason is a deeper understanding of the astonishing story of innovation that lies at the core of the history of agricuture - without which there is no way on earth we could have increased our numbers from 5 million to 6 billion - and of the prospects for more such innovation in the future. But at the same time, I also finished the project with a firm conclusion that technical innovation on its own isn’t sufficient.

Innovation always creates winners and losers. We saw that in the agricultural context with the 20th century Green Revolution (which despite huge improvements in yield also put huge numbers of agricultural labourers out of work; benefited larger farmers first and small farmers only later, if at all; and for the most part bypassed Africa altogether). So the other side of the coin is all about politics. It’s not enough for the world’s food system to become more productive, more resilient and more sustainable, though it needs to do all of those things; it also needs to become more equitable.

Admittedly, I found little evidence so far of the political will needed to make that a reality, either in developing countries or at the global level. But the reason why even then, I still feel more hopeful now than when I started the project, is the realisation that creating the more equitable food system that we need isn’t that far out of reach.

It wouldn’t take huge sacrifice; we know more or less what we need to do; with sleeves rolled up, I don’t think it’s remotely absurd to think that we could do it within a decade. And actually - in cheerful defiance of the gloomy clouds gathering overhead - I think we might actually do it.

Asia is the Largest Source of Immigrants to Australia

International Migration Transforms Australia - Population Reference Bureau

The post-World War II period stands out as an exceptional era in Australia's immigration history because of a major influx of immigrants from outside the United Kingdom and Ireland. For much of the post-World War II period, the UK and Ireland have been the major source of immigrants even while there was a series of successive waves of immigrants from various non-English speaking regions. The immediate post-war period saw the arrival of substantial numbers of displaced persons from Eastern Europe. This was followed by waves from the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Greece, and the Middle East. In the late 1970s, substantial flows from Asia commenced and still continue. Since the late 1980s, Asia has been a more important origin of migrants than Europe. In the 1990s, the United Kingdom lost its place as the largest single source of immigrants.

These patterns reflect some significant shifts in immigration policy over the last half-century. In the aftermath of World War II, significant labor shortages arose in the newly expanding manufacturing sector as well as in traditional areas like agriculture. When this demand for labor could not be met from traditional sources, the government assisted more than 300,000 displaced persons from Eastern Europe to settle in Australia and fill vacant jobs. This policy broke the previous almost exclusive reliance on immigrants from the UK-Ireland. The success of the displaced-persons policy led to an extension of the immigration program to other parts of Europe.

The 1970s saw several major shifts in the immigration policy. First, Australia began to experience substantial levels of unemployment with structural change in the economy, the movement of manufacturing jobs away from Australia, and the entry of the baby-boom cohorts into the labor force. Immigration policy shifted from an emphasis on the recruitment of semi-skilled and skilled foreign workers for manufacturing to a more complex program with four main components:

* Economic migration. Attraction of people with skills in demand in Australia.
* Family migration. Relatives of Australian residents. The specific regulations of this part of the program have changed over the subsequent years.
* Refugee and humanitarian migration.
* Special categories. The largest is New Zealanders who can move more or less freely across the Tasman Sea.

The government introduced a points system to assess applicants for economic migration. In the 1980s a system was introduced whereby each year the government sets the numbers of immigrants to be allowed into the country. Over the years, the numbers and balance of the four categories has shifted with changes in government policy, the economy, and the global situation.

The second major policy change in the 1970s was the removal of the final vestiges of the "White Australia policy" which was one of the first initiatives of Australia's first national government in 1901. This policy prevented non-Europeans from immigrating to Australia. With its removal, Asians began to compete equally for places in the immigration program. The entry of refugees from Indo-China was the first wave of a continuing influx from the region.

More youngsters will stay at school simply because there are fewer jobs for those who leave early.

Getting a degree is an excellent investment

Ross Gittins
February 14, 2009

IF RECESSIONS are anything to go by, one thing we can expect this time is a rise in the year 12 retention rate. More youngsters will stay at school simply because there are fewer jobs for those who leave early. Similarly, more youngsters are likely to go on from school to university.

But is this a good thing? Depends. It's not good if the youngsters do not want to be there, are not given subjects to study they find interesting and end up disrupting those who do know why they are there.

If those who stay on do develop an interest in what they are studying, if they can see the wider possibilities that further education opens up, they and the economy will end up better off. That requires maturity, so maybe it is not so bad to keep youngsters in the system until they have had time to think things through.

But the trouble with education beyond the minimum leaving age is that it involves exercising a discipline that is hard enough for oldies, let alone young people — delayed gratification.

There is more to further education than making money, but for most people money is a big part of it. If they can find a job, young people are tempted to leave education early because they cannot wait to start earning — and spending — their own money.

What is much harder for a young person to see is that if only they delay their entry into the working world for a few years until they have gained more education, the money they will earn over their lives is likely to be a lot greater.

If you were to do an economics, commerce or business degree, one of the many things they would teach you is how to estimate the monetary benefits of getting such a degree. The method is explained in a book by Jeff Borland, professor of economics at the University of Melbourne, Microeconomics: case studies and applications. It is a great little book I recommend to university students having trouble seeing the practical relevance of all the dry micro theory they are being taught.

"The golden rule for optimal decision-making is that a decision-maker should only take an action if the addition to benefits (marginal benefit) from that action is at least as great as the addition to opportunity costs (marginal cost)," Professor Borland writes.

That is, most decisions involve costs as well as benefits, and you have to weigh them against each other to see if there is a net benefit. And if you are deciding whether a degree is worth it, you have to take account only of those costs and benefits peculiar to the decision to go to uni — that is, the marginal costs and benefits.

So you do not just find out how much graduates typically earn, you also have to find out the typical earnings of non-graduates because it is only the difference between the two that is relevant.

When you measure the costs involved, you look at the cost of the higher education contribution scheme (HECS), any incidental fees and the purchase of textbooks, but you ignore the living costs you incur while doing your degree. Why? Because you will have living costs whether or not you go to university. But the costs you have to take account of are not just those you pay out in cash. It is the opportunity cost that matters. And the big opportunity you forgo by going to university full time is the money you could have earned from a full-time job.

This turns out to be by far the biggest cost: the income you give up while you are studying (a fact those youngsters desperate to quit education and start earning intuitively understand).

Here you find out the typical earnings of a young person without university qualifications and subtract the typical earnings of students from their part-time jobs.

It turns out that acquiring a degree is like making an investment: the costs are up front, whereas the benefits do not start until you have graduated and are employed, but then they flow every year of your working life.

Another thing you learn at university is that, if you have money coming in and going out over a many years, you need to put all the flows onto a common basis so they can be validly compared.

In 2000, Professor Borland examined the case of a student aged 18 who took three years to complete a degree. He found this would add an average of $450,000 to a graduate's lifetime earnings, compared with an opportunity cost of $50,000.

This is a gain of more than $15,500 a year (in dollars of year 2000 purchasing power) for every year until retirement.

It is equivalent to a 14.5 per cent a year return on the initial investment for every year spent working.

Not many investments are paying that well.

Australian newspapers sales remained robust

Newspapers stand solid in global crisis | The Australian

AUSTRALIAN newspaper sales remained robust in the December quarter.

The Australian led the way with stronger circulation for both weekday and weekend editions.

Audit Bureau of Circulation figures for the three months to December showed The Australian increased weekday sales 1.5 per cent to 137,000 from the same time a year ago, while sales of The Weekend Australian were 3 per cent higher at 309,000.

Both editions of the newspaper have increased sales every quarter on the prior year's result since the audit bureau's reporting rules changed in July 2006.

In contrast, weekday sales of The Australian Financial Review fell 2.4 per cent this quarter to 86,158 and sales of its weekend edition fell 2.5 per cent to 93,800.

Industry group The Newspaper Works said total Australian newspaper sales dipped 2.1 per cent in December compared to the same time last year, while the combined sales of metropolitan Saturday papers was only 1.2 per cent lower.

"The results are far stronger than many industry commentators have predicted and demonstrate that newspapers continue to prove incredibly resilient," Newspaper Works chief Tony Hale said.

He said the sales results were better than expected, given the economic crisis. "The figures reinforce the important ongoing and dynamic role newspapers continue to play in the lives of Australians, who collectively buy over 20 million newspapers a week."

Sales of most state-based papers declined again in this circulation audit, although the Northern Territory News lifted weekday sales 3.6 per cent to 21,244, and the Saturday edition of Sydney's The Daily Telegraph increased sales 1.9 per cent to 325,000.

But weekday sales of Melbourne's Herald Sun fell 2.7 per cent to 515,500 and weekday sales of The Courier-Mail in Brisbane were 2.5 per cent lower at 215,383.

Similarly, weekday sales of Adelaide's The Advertiser were 4.3 per cent lower at 182,055 and weekday sales of Perth's The West Australian fell 2.7 per cent to 192,964.

Sunday newspapers also suffered, with sales of Sydney's The Sunday Telegraph and The Sun-Herald falling 2.5 per cent and 5.3 per cent respectively.

Sales of Adelaide's Sunday Mail were 5.1 per cent lower at 304,096 and sales at Brisbane's Sunday Mail were down 5.2 per cent to 551,271.

The only Sunday papers to lift sales in the December audit were The Sunday Age (up 0.5 per cent to 227,100) and The Sunday Territorian (up 3.2 per cent to 22,287).

Mr Hale said economic conditions hurt regional newspapers, where total weekday sales fell 2.4 per cent to 3.2 million.
Story Tools


From here you can use the Social Web links to save Newspapers stand solid in global crisis to a social bookmarking site.

THE global economic crisis has replaced al-Qa'ida as the greatest threat to Western security

Financial crisis now main threat, says US | The Australian

THE global economic crisis has replaced al-Qa'ida as the greatest threat to Western security, according to the new US intelligence chief.

In his first threat briefing to the US Congress, National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair said yesterday that the economic crisis risked creating "regime-threatening insecurity" in countries that have been worst hit by the downturn, such as Pakistan. He described the downturn as "the primary near-term security concern" for the US.

"The longer it takes for the (economic) recovery to begin, the greater the likelihood of serious damage to US strategic interests," he said.

The economic crisis left a number of important US allies at risk of becoming unable to "fully meet their defence and humanitarian obligations".

"Statistical modelling shows that economic crises increase the risk of regime-threatening instability if they persist over a one- to two-year period," Mr Blair said.

About a quarter of the world's countries, notably in Europe and the former Soviet Union, had experienced "low-level instability", including government changes and even fast-growing China and India had taken a hit.

Mr Blair also warned that corruption within Afghan President Hamid Karzai's Government had now "exceeded tolerable levels" and was contributing to the rising influence and popularity of Islamic militants.

As US special envoy to South Asia Richard Holbrooke met Mr Karzai and other leaders in the capital yesterday to discuss a new anti-terror strategy, Mr Blair said the Afghan and Pakistan governments had lost ground to militants in the past year because they had failed to address corruption, mounting economic hardships and lack of basic services.

The assessment reflects the view of US President Barack Obama, who has described the two countries as the main front in the war on terror, and is understood to be on the verge of sending an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan.

"Kabul's inability to build effective, honest and loyal provincial and district-level institutions capable of providing basic services and sustainable licit livelihoods erodes its popular legitimacy and increases the influence of warlords and the Taliban," Mr Blair said. Mr Blair said progress had been made against al-Qa'ida, describing the deaths of four leaders in Pakistan's tribal areas as a blow "as damaging to the group as any since the fall of the Taliban in 2001".

The organisation was now "less capable and effective", but far from beaten, he said, adding that al-Qa'ida's use of Pakistan's tribal areas as a base for terror training meant the security situations of Afghanistan and Pakistan remained linked.

The Obama administration flagged its intention last month to treat the growing security crisis in the two countries as a single issue and this week dispatched its new envoy to both countries to begin a strategy review.

Mr Holbrooke spent three days in Pakistan this week meeting civilian and military leaders, who appealed for increased military and development aid to fight the militant insurgency.

Mr Holbrooke is understood to have delivered a message from Mr Obama to the Afghan and Pakistan leaderships that new aid would be contingent on greater co-operation in the fight against a jihadist build-up in the border regions.

Mr Blair echoed that sentiment."No improvement is possible in Afghanistan without Pakistan taking control of its border areas," he said.

Mr Holbrooke is due to meet Indian government officials in New Delhi over the weekend to discuss progress in the investigations into last November's Mumbai bomb attack, which claimed the lives of close to 180 people.

Mr Holbrooke's visit to the region is widely believed to have prompted Pakistan's admission on Thursday that the Mumbai attacks were launched and partly planned on Pakistani soil.

Interior Minister Rehman Malik said Pakistan had already arrested six of eight Pakistani suspects identified during a government probe into the attacks and was seeking further information from New Delhi so it could proceed with prosecutions.

Looking good with bike

Shoes Mend Hearts | thevine.com.au

Europeans and Brits are really into the bike riding, particularly Parisians. Given Paris is a lovely flat city and of course Amsterdam is well known for having more bikes than cars.

In our sunburnt country, most cities don't allow for the pleasure and extended use of a bicycle in day-to-day use. Melbourne is the best choice, yet we still don't have dedicated bike lanes, and most cyclists wear jerseys and those clip in sneakers. NOT fashionable by any stretch of the imagination.

So if you want to get on the bike, and do your bit for the environment, here are some options for your feet.

Boots
Of course boots work well, particularly with a small heel, as then your foot will not slip. However, in the warmer months, boots won't do.

You could try the gorgeous high heeled Dr Martens boot in either black or red - Chloe Sevigny wears them at the airport...



You'd be surprised how well a heel can work on a bike.

Sandals
Some sandals can work, provided they are well fastened to your foot. I've had a slight mishap with a thong (rubber sandal if you're not Australian!), so I'd advise against that.

Sandals like these with plenty of protection will do just fine.




The only problem you may face is the slipping forward due to a lack of heel.

Flats
Either a straight ballet flat with a small heel or even a lace-up oxford will be fantastic.
Be careful with patent leather as they may get scratched.




Ultimately, adopting the bike for a fashion conscious person must be carefully thought out. You'll never see me in bike shorts, but you will see me on my bike!

And if you need any inspiration, take a look at this site - Copenhagen Cycle Chic.

Connex

36 degrees too hot for us: Connex | theage.com.au

Just a little quick note, just want to say thank you to Connex's service which helped me to travel easily in Melbourne for the last two yeas. I know sometimes there were delays but I still love Connex.  I don't want to complain anyway. Travelling in 'Dan Undah" has been so easy with Connex.   Thank you :)

Connex yesterday released its analysis of why the January rail meltdown occurred.

"Melbourne's train network is not designed to operate at its best in extreme heat," the operator said in a statement.

"Most of our trains have air-conditioning systems that don't operate optimally beyond about 35 degrees, leading to cancellations."

Over the past 154 years, Melbourne averaged 10 days a year above 35 degrees. But in January, eight days were hotter than 35 degrees.

And, for the first time since records began, the temperature rose above 43 degrees for three consecutive days.

During those three days, Connex cancelled 24 per cent of services. Adelaide had almost identical temperatures but operator TransAdelaide, which runs the same style of trains as many in Melbourne, cancelled 7 per cent of services.

Connex is bidding for the contract to run the train network for the Government for at least the next eight years.

It blamed "the extraordinary heatwave" and its own drivers for the mass cancellations.

Just under 5 per cent of 55,139 scheduled services failed to run in January.

Opposition transport spokesman Terry Mulder said the Government wanted Connex to take the blame for the rail failure.

"Public Transport Minister Kosky knows full well that the fundamental problem is not the operator, but Labor's failure to maintain Melbourne's rail network and its trains," he said.

A spokesman for Ms Kosky said January's heatwave had placed massive stress on the train system — and pointed out that Melbourne was not alone in experiencing difficulties coping with climate issues.

Extreme temperatures had also affected train services in Sydney, Adelaide and Perth, the spokesman said. "At the same time London's train network was shut down by extreme cold and snow."

Public Health Experiment and Scaremongering

The worrier's guide to 21st century health - New Idea

According to the headlines, everything in our modern- days lives could be harming our health, from new Wi-Fi technology to food additives.


By embracing these discoveries and technology, are we unwittingly taking part in a public health experiment, or should we take the scaremongering with a pinch of salt? We take a look at the potential risks and come up with some solutions.



Everyday chemicals
Cleaning products and food packaging contain man-made chemicals.

POTENTIAL RISKS
‘The chemicals in many products have real health effects,’ says Adam Lowry, co-founder of the Method ecological range of household cleaning products. ‘Indoor air is up to five times as polluted as the outdoors and contains five to 10 times as many pesticides.’

Pesticides, paraffins, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and other chemicals are thought to cause asthma, skin irritation, allergies and headaches.

Manufacturers insist chemicals are subject to safety regulations. ‘Studies linking asthma with household products aren’t based on fact,’ says Dr Chris Flower of the UK’s Cosmetic, Toiletry & Perfumery Association.


VERDICT: BE NATURAL
If there’s a natural alternative, use it and reduce your ‘toxic load’.


IF YOU’RE WORRIED…

* Use eco-friendly cleaners and organic toiletries.
* Redecorate with low-VOC paints.
* Have house plants – they absorb up to 87 per cent of indoor pollution.
* Open windows to renew air daily.
* Ditch air fresheners in favour of vaporising essential oils.


Wi-Fi
Wireless fidelity (Wi-Fi) connects us to the internet via radio waves, not cables.


POTENTIAL RISKS
Radio waves have been around since the late 1800s, but some people worry that modern frequencies will affect us in new ways.

Some research shows Wi-Fi affects kids’ concentration, so it shouldn’t be in schools until we know more,’ says Jane Alexander, author of The Overload Solution (Piatkus, $24.95).

2007 UK TV investigation claimed radiation levels from Wi-Fi in some schools were up to three times those of a mobile mast, but authorities disagree. ‘The radio frequencies used in Wi-Fi are broadly the same as for FM radio,’ says Dr Michael Clark from the UK’s Health and Protection Agency (HPA).


VERDICT: Wi PANIC?
The HPA says sitting in a Wi-Fi hot spot for a year gives the same dose of waves as a 20-minute mobile phone call.


IF YOU’RE WORRIED…
‘If you’re a man, use a laptop on a table, not your lap. The heat they generate may affect male fertility,’ says Professor Malcolm Sperrin from Royal Berkshire Hospital in the UK.



Fast food
Takeaways seem too handy and tasty to resist. Are they really so unhealthy?


POTENTIAL RISKS
‘Most fast food contains too much saturated fat and salt, which can increase risk of heart disease, obesity, diabetes and stroke,’ dietitian Helen Stracey says.

Worst of all are trans fats, which the World Health Organization wants us to eliminate completely. They raise bad cholesterol, lower good cholesterol, affect how our liver uses fat and mean higher fat deposits around your tummy. Trans fats are man-made in the food industry when liquid oil is solidified by hydrogenation.

Additives are another problem, as some have been shown to affect children’s behaviour. A 2007 study in The Lancet medical journal found some preservatives could cause hyperactivity and allergic reactions.


VERDICT: BUYER BEWARE
Most convenience foods may affect health if eaten often. Stick to fresh, unprocessed food.


IF YOU’RE WORRIED…

* Check labels for fat and salt levels.
* Have takeaways as an occasional treat.
* Stop seeing fast food as convenient. What’s faster than beans on wholegrain toast?

Celebrate Valentine with Aprodisiac food. Be mindful!

Aphrodisiac Foods

Next time you're pouring nutmeg on your cappuccino, go easy! Although in small doses this piquant spice can cause a drunken, aphrodisiac effect, in large quantities (anything over four teaspoons), nutmeg can spur highly dangerous hallucinogenic reactions. But don't get any ideas: Intravenous injection of nutmeg can be fatal.

Holidays & Travel over Summer in Australia

About the Fire Danger Period, Holidays and Travel over Summer - Country Fire Authority

Summer holidays in Victoria coincide with the bushfire season.

So if you’re planning a holiday, you need to think about fire safety.

Many popular holiday spots on the coast and in the bush are often locations where bushfire risk is at its highest.

While travelling:

* If you are aware of bushfires before you leave home, plan an alternate route.
* If you come across smoke while travelling, turn around and go back. Listen to the radio and ask locally for help to find a safe way through.
* Visibility on the roads may be greatly reduced and you may encounter a high number of Emergency service vehicles. All care should be taken to ensure that you drive cautiously.

Even if you’re just heading out of town for a day trip and planning to have a barbecue, there are a few things you need to think about.

* Is it a Total Fire Ban today?
* Can I have a barbecue?

Camping:

If you’re camping this summer, check to see if it’s a Total Fire Ban where you’re going. Remember there are five TFB districts across the State. Check what the camping ground’s firelighting rules are. If you can light a campfire, only use the fireplaces provided.

When you arrive at your destination, check with the camping ground operator about what their plans are should there be a bushfire or other emergency.

Know how to recognise a high fire risk day ...high temperatures, strong northerly wind and low humidity. Think about what you will do on those days – the beach may be a better option than bushwalking.

Listen to this message for campers & tourists. Or read this transcript...


And finally: Let someone know your plans and how to contact you.

Have fun on your summer holiday and remember, fire safety is everyone’s responsibilit

Municipal Fire Restriction Status

Fire Restrictions - Country Fire Authority

Municipality Name Fire Restriction Status
ALPINE Restrictions in force
ARARAT Restrictions in force
BALLARAT Restrictions in force
BANYULE Restrictions in force
BASS COAST Restrictions in force
BAW BAW Restrictions in force
BENALLA Restrictions in force
BULOKE Restrictions in force
CAMPASPE Restrictions in force
CARDINIA Restrictions in force
CASEY Restrictions in force
CENTRAL GOLDFIELDS Restrictions in force
COLAC-OTWAY Restrictions in force
CORANGAMITE Restrictions in force
EAST GIPPSLAND Restrictions in force
FALLS CREEK ALPINE RESORT Restrictions in force
FRANKSTON Restrictions in force
FRENCH ISLAND Restrictions in force
GANNAWARRA Restrictions in force
GLENELG Restrictions in force
GOLDEN PLAINS Restrictions in force
GREATER BENDIGO Restrictions in force
GREATER DANDENONG Restrictions in force
GREATER GEELONG Restrictions in force
HEPBURN Restrictions in force
HINDMARSH Restrictions in force
HOBSONS BAY No restrictions in force
HORSHAM Restrictions in force
HUME Restrictions in force
INDIGO Restrictions in force
KINGSTON Restrictions in force
KNOX Restrictions in force
LA TROBE Restrictions in force
LATROBE Restrictions in force
LODDON Restrictions in force
MACEDON RANGES Restrictions in force
MANNINGHAM Restrictions in force
MANSFIELD Restrictions in force
MAROONDAH Restrictions in force
MELTON Restrictions in force
MILDURA Restrictions in force
MITCHELL Restrictions in force
MOIRA Restrictions in force
MOORABOOL Restrictions in force
MORNINGTON PENINSULA Restrictions in force
MOYNE Restrictions in force
MT ALEXANDER Restrictions in force
MT BULLER ALPINE RESORT Restrictions in force
MT HOTHAM ALPINE RESORT Restrictions in force
MURRINDINDI Restrictions in force
NILLUMBIK Restrictions in force
NORTH GRAMPIANS Restrictions in force
PYRENEES Restrictions in force
QUEENSCLIFFE Restrictions in force
SHEPPARTON Restrictions in force
SOUTH GIPPSLAND Restrictions in force
SOUTH GRAMPIANS Restrictions in force
STRATHBOGIE Restrictions in force
SURF COAST Restrictions in force
SWAN HILL Restrictions in force
TOWONG Restrictions in force
WANGARATTA Restrictions in force
WARRNAMBOOL Restrictions in force
WELLINGTON Restrictions in force
WEST WIMMERA Restrictions in force
WHITTLESEA Restrictions in force
WODONGA Restrictions in force
WYNDHAM Restrictions in force
YARRA RANGES Restrictions in force
YARRIAMBIACK Restrictions in force

It is easy to raise money in Australia for charity purpose

Victoria bushfire donations hit $45 million as Australians dig deep | Herald Sun

The appeal, being administered by the Red Cross, has attracted donations ranging from large corporate amounts to tens of thousands smaller pledges by people from around the country.

Red Cross chief executive Robert Tickner said the response from the public was both staggering and uplifting.

"It is truly an amazing response from the Australian people," he said.

"We have heard reports of people affected by the floods in northern Queensland donating their assistance money directly to help those devastated by the fires in Victoria.

"This is what it is all about. The power of humanity – people coming together to help other people."

The toll free donation line is 1800 811 700.

Anyone having difficulty getting through is urged to be patient.

Donations can also be made online at www.redcross.org.au

Red Cross has now registered almost 9000 people at relief centres across the state - almost 2000 in the past 24 hours.

While volunteers at the State Inquiry Centre have responded to almost 14,000 calls from people looking for loved ones - an increase of almost 4000 from yesterday.

Donations continue to flood in.

Corporations to have donated include News Limited, publisher of the Herald Sun, pledging $1million, Cadbury Schweppes - $100,000 and matching all employee donations up to $100,000 - and Australia Post $1 million.

Major Bushfires in Victoria

Major Bushfires in Victoria

Major Bushfires in Victoria
.
Fire has been present on the Australian continent for millions of years and has been significant in shaping much of the landscape. Many fires were started by lightning. For many thousands of years, Aboriginal people have used fire for a variety of purposes. These included the encouragement of grasslands for hunting purposes and the clearing of tracks through dense vegetation.

Because there are few comprehensive records of specific bushfire events prior to, or in the early stages of European settlement, the following chronology includes only those bushfire events that have occurred since 1851.
Image: Bushfire in Victoria

1851 - 6 February 'Black Thursday'
Fires covered a quarter of what is now Victoria (approximately 5 million hectares). Areas affected include Portland, Plenty Ranges, Westernport, the Wimmera and Dandenong districts. Approximately 12 lives, one million sheep and thousands of cattle were lost.

1898 - 1 February 'Red Tuesday'
Fires burnt 260,000 hectares in South Gippsland. Twelve lives and more than 2,000 buildings were destroyed.

Early 1900s
Destructive and widespread fires are reported to have occurred in 1905 and 1906. Fires extended from Gippsland to the Grampians in 1912. In 1914, fires burnt more than 100,000 hectares. In 1919 extensive fires occurred in the Otway Ranges.

1926 - February - March
Forest fires burnt across large areas of Gippsland throughout February and into early March. Sixty lives were lost in addition to widespread damage to farms, homes and forests. The fires came to a head on February 14, with 31 deaths recorded at Warburton. Other areas affected include Noojee, Kinglake, Erica, and the Dandenong Ranges. Widespread fires also occurred across other eastern states.

1932
Major fires occurred in many districts across Victoria throughout the summer. Large areas of State forest in Gippsland were burnt and nine lives were lost.

page top

1939 - 13 January 'Black Friday'
From December 1938 to January 1939, fires burnt 1.5 to 2 million hectares, including 800,000 hectares of protected forest, 600,000 hectares of reserved forest and 4,000 hectares of plantations. The fire severity peaked on Friday January 13 - "Black Friday". The fires caused seventy one fatalities and destroyed more than 650 buildings and the township of Narbethong. The findings of the Royal Commission that was held following the fires were highly significant in increasing fire awareness and prevention throughout Australia.

The fires affected almost every section of Victoria. Areas hardest hit included Noojee, Woods Point, Omeo, Warrandyte, and Yarra Glen. Other areas affected include Warburton, Erica, Rubicon, Dromana, Mansfield, the Otway Ranges and the Grampian Ranges.

1942 - 3-4 March
Fires in South Gippsland caused one human fatality, large losses of stock and destroyed more than 20 homes and 2 farms.

1943 - 22 December
The first major fire of the 1943/44 season occurred near Wangaratta, killing ten people and burning hundreds of hectares of grassland.

1944 - 14 January - 14 February
Fires in the Western Districts destroyed over 500 houses and caused huge losses in the pastoral industry. Four or more grass fires near Hamilton, Dunkeld, Skipton and Lake Bolac burnt approximately 440,000 hectares in eight hours.
Records indicate that between fifteen and twenty people died as a result of these fires. The total area covered by grass fires that season was estimated to be in the order of 1 million hectares.

page top

1952 - 5 February
A fire that originated on the Hume Highway near Benalla burnt approximately 100,000 hectares and caused the deaths of several people.

1962 - 14-16 January
Fires in the Dandenong Ranges and on the outskirts of Melbourne caused thirty two fatalities and destroyed over 450 houses. Areas severely affected include The Basin, Christmas Hills, Kinglake, St Andrews, Hurstbridge, Warrandyte and Mitcham.

1965 - 17 January
A major grass fire burning near Longwood in Northern Victoria caused seven fatalities and burnt six houses.

1965 - 21 February - 13 March
Fires in Gippsland burnt for 17 days, covering 300,000 hectares of forest and 15,000 hectares of grassland. Over 60 buildings and 4,000 stock were destroyed.

1968 - 19 February
A fire in the Dandenong Ranges burnt 1,920 hectares and destroyed 53 houses and over 10 other buildings. Areas affected include The Basin and Upwey.

1969 - 8 January
280 fires broke out on the 8th of January 1969. Of these, 12 grass fires reached major proportions and burnt 250,000 hectares. Areas seriously affected included Lara, Daylesford, Dulgana, Yea, Darraweit, Kangaroo Flat and Korongvale. Twenty-three people died, including 17 motorists at Lara, trapped on the Geelong to Melbourne freeway. The fires also destroyed 230 houses, 21 other buildings and more than 12,000 stock.

page top

1972 - 14 December
A fire at Mount Buffalo burnt for 12 days, covering an area of approximately 12,140 hectares. This area included 7,400 hectares of State forest and 4,520 hectares of National Park.

1977 - 12 February
Widespread fires occurred across the Western District of Victoria, mostly in grasslands. The fires caused the deaths of four people and burnt approximately 103,000 hectares. More than 198,500 stock, 116 houses and 340 buildings were lost.

1980 - 28 December – 6 January 1981
A fire started from a lightning strike on December 28, 1980 and continued to burn through until 6 January 1981. The fire burnt 119,000 hectares in the Sunset Country and the Big Desert.

1983 - 31 January
Fires in the Cann River forest district burnt more than 250,000 hectares including large areas of State forest.

1983 - 1 February
A fire at Mt Macedon burnt 6,100 hectares including 1,864 hectares of State forest. Fifty houses were destroyed.

1983 - 16 February 'Ash Wednesday'
Australia’s most well-known bushfire event. Over 100 fires in Victoria burnt 210,000 hectares and caused forty seven fatalities. More than 27,000 stock and 2,000 houses were lost. Areas severely affected included Monivae, Branxholme, East Trentham, Mt Macedon, the Otway Ranges, Warburton, Belgrave Heights, Cockatoo, Beaconsfield Upper and Framlingham (see also Ash Wednesday pages).

page top

1985 - 14 January
A large number of fires started on 14 January, predominantly from lightning. A major fire in Central Victoria burnt 50,800 hectares of land, including 17,600 hectares of Crown Land. Three people died and over 180 houses, 500 farms and 46,000 stock were destroyed as a result of the fire - areas affected including Avoca, Maryborough, and Little River. A large number of fires also started through the alpine area, with the largest at Mt Buffalo burning 51,400 hectares. In total one hundred and eleven fires started on public land on 14 January 1985 and it took two weeks to bring the fires under control.

Pdf Icon 1985 summary of bushfires on public land (Pdf - 30 KB)

1997 - 21 January
Five major fires broke out including fires in the Dandenong Ranges that caused three fatalities, destroyed 41 houses and burnt 400 hectares. Other areas affected include Arthurs Seat, Eildon State Park, Gippsland and Creswick.

1998 - 9 January New Years Eve
A fire reported on New Years Eve continued to burn for 10 days and burnt a total of 32,000 hectares. Of this area, 22,000 hectares was in the Alpine National Park (12,500 hectares of which is Wilderness or Remote Natural Area) and 10,000 hectares was in the Carey River State Forest. The suspected cause of the fire was a campfire. (see also Alpine National Park).

2002 - December Big Desert Fire
Lightning in the North West caused two fires - one in the Big Desert Wilderness Park and another in the adjoining Wyperfield National Park on 17 December. Fanned by dry fuel and poor weather conditions, these fires joined to eventually burn 181,400 hectares. An abandoned house was destroyed, as well as 400 hectares of private property. The fire was later declared safe on 31 December after 25mm rain fell in the area. (see also Big Desert).

2003 - Eastern Victorian (Alpine) Fires
Eighty seven fires were started by lightning in the north east of Victoria on 8 January 2003. Eight of these fires were unable to be contained and joined together to form the largest fire in Victoria since the 1939 "Black Friday" bushfires. Burning for 59 days before being contained, the Alpine fires burnt over 1.3 million hectares, 41 homes and over 9,000 livestock, with thousands of kilometres of fencing also being destroyed. Areas affected include Mt Buffalo, Bright, Dinner Plain, Benambra and Omeo.

Racist t-shirts

'Racist' t-shirts send mixed messages about Australia | National News | News.com.au

AS Australia was proudly celebrating its national day yesterday, a Darwin store was selling Australia Day shirts emblazoned with "racist" messages.

The Northern Territory News learned the Drunken Goat variety store in Casuarina was displaying a T-shirt in its front window proclaiming, "This is Australia. We eat meat, we drink beer, and we speak f------ English".

Another featured a picture of the Australian flag with the message "Support it or F--- OFF".

The manager of the store was unavailable to comment yesterday but community groups were outraged that the store would offer these shirts as part of their Australia Day window display.

Africa-Australia Friendship Association president Judy Monkhouse said she was "appalled" by the comments.

"If indeed that's what they say, it is quite astonishing to see this in Darwin, in particular, which is celebrated for the fact that so many different ethnicities exist together in relative harmony," she said.

Bikini ban 'over the top', says shopper as she is booted out in mall mixup

Bikini ban 'over the top', says shopper as she is booted out in mall mixup | National News | News.com.au

By Daniel Bourchier

Northern Territory News

February 13, 2009 07:27am


A WOMAN is outraged after she was kicked out of the Northern Territory's biggest shopping centre for wearing a bikini top.

Barbara Rilatt and her husband Neil, both 28, were furious to be asked by security if they had a T-shirt to cover up her upper body or to leave Casuarina Square last week.

Centre manager Ben Gill said the incident was a misunderstanding as bikini tops were not banned in Casuarina Square.

Ms Rilatt, a nurse of Lee Point, said the incident was upsetting.

"How could you offend someone by being comfortable?" she said.

"The security guard - a woman - came up and said put on a shirt or leave.

"It is fine to wear your jeans down your crack, but not to wear a bikini top?"

Mr Gill said he understood Ms Rilatt was wearing a bra and not a bikini top.

"If she was wearing a bikini, we have made an error," he said.
Related Coverage

* New role for TwigleyHerald Sun, 1 Feb 2009
* Seaside sensationsNEWS.com.au,
* 'Racist' t-shirts send mixed messages on nationNEWS.com.au, 27 Jan 2009
* Reader's Comments: Wearing Speedos is a crimeNEWS.com.au,
* Pammy's swimsuit slip upAdelaide Now, 20 Jan 2009

Your Say

Wearing a bra should not be discriminated against. We should as a community support the bra the same way the bra supports our ladies.

(Read More)
Clinton of Sydney

"I would suggest it came down to a misunderstanding.

"If someone was wearing underwear, then we would ask them to cover up."

UN Carbon Cut

UN carbon cut to cost Australia $870m | The Australian

AUSTRALIA faces the prospect of paying an extra $870 million for greenhouse gas emissions after Kevin Rudd's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and a new UN target for carbon pollution.

After a year-long review by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change committee, Australia has been given a tougher target to cut its greenhouse gas emissions.

The UN has reduced the amount of greenhouse gas emissions Australia is allowed to produce by 6.6 million tonnes ayear.

If Australia is above the carbon emissions target at the end of 2012, it will be required tomake up any shortfall by buying carbon credits from other nations.

Continuing growth in carbon emissions in Australia and the new target have led leading global carbon market analyst Point Carbon to estimate a potential extra cost to taxpayers of $870 million in carbon credits in 2012.

"The revision could force Australia to purchase over 30million assigned amount units (AAUs) more than expected, which could cost up to some $870 million, unless it can achieve further emission cuts domestically," Point Carbon's latest Australian emissions report says.

The report adds that the credits Australia would buy are left over from the economic restructuring of former Soviet satellites after the fall of the Berlin Wall and hold "little orno environmental integrity".

The UN's reduction of 6.6million tonnes annually in Australia's emissions comes as the Department of Climate Change predicts that greenhouse gas emissions figures for 2007, to be released soon, will rise 9million tonnes above the levels of 2006.

Climate Change Minister Penny Wong confirmed last night that the UN target had changed but remained confident Australia could meet it in 2012.

"Our current projections, released last December, show we are on track to meet our Kyoto target, so there is no projected shortfall," Senator Wong said last night.

The Government is finalising an emissions trading scheme that is due to begin next year.

The moves come as the global financial crisis puts extra cost pressures on industry, creating turmoil in world carbon markets and prompting claims that European polluters are abusing emissions trading schemes to raise quick finance.

The price of carbon in the European ETS has crashed to a record low in the past two weeks - down from E30 ($59) a tonne to E10 - as heavy carbon polluters sold more than E1 billion worth of carbon credits to raise finance for their businesses.

European cement producers and electricity generators have unloaded carbon credits they do not need because economic growth has crashed. The Rudd Government's updated forecasts estimate Australian industry will have to pay $23.5billion for carbon emission permits in the first two years of the ETS. Point Carbon last week estimated the recession sparked by the financial crisis would cut global greenhouse gas emissions by 500 million tonnes.

legalization of drugs...bigotry

Nonsense can be a narcotic, too | Jamie Whyte - Times Online

Nonsense can be a narcotic, too
It's time our rulers stopped getting high on bigotry over the laws on drug-taking
Jamie Whyte
POLITICIANS DO NOT care for drugs. It is a topic like religion: since the established position is nonsense, established people do not like discussing it if they can avoid doing so.

Alas, drugs are being pushed on to the establishment from within. First it was Kate Moss, then David Cameron, and then the Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs with its report on the criminal classification of cannabis. That is the entire establishment covered: Hoi Poloicracy, Aristocracy and Bureaucracy. There is no hiding. It is time again for “the drugs debate”.

The drugs debate goes like this. Most participants think it right that the production, sale and consumption of recreational drugs, such as cannabis, ecstasy, cocaine and heroin, should be illegal. They point to the damage drugs do to their users’ health: death, brain damage, lung cancer and so on. (All the other harm caused by the drugs trade is a consequence of its illegality and so not helpful to the case.)

Those who think drugs should be legalised — “only the soft ones, of course, we’re not crazy” — come over all John Stuart Mill. Consenting adults in a free country should be able to do to themselves whatever harm they choose. The State may rightly limit our freedom to prevent us from harming others, but not to prevent us from harming ourselves.

Mill was probably right. But the argument is not entirely helpful because it tacitly accepts that people harm themselves by taking drugs. And we live in an age where welfare trumps liberty every time. Modern politicians like to say that it is their very difficult job to find the balance between welfare and liberty. But it is not the least bit difficult to predict on which side their scales will always fall. So, to win our liberty, we must get legislators to see that drugs are in fact good for their users.
Related Links

* Cannabis use rises tenfold among children

* Hit the drug users. It's that simple

* Personal View: Safety not lifestyle is key to drug tests

This claim will surprise many readers. Has Whyte got his hands on some radical new research about the physiological and psychological effects of drugs? No. I've got my hands on a perfectly orthodox theory of welfare that is always forgotten in “the drugs debate”. Something is good for you if its benefits exceed its costs. Otherwise it is bad for you.

This simple principle means that you cannot properly recommend something by considering only its benefits, nor condemn it by considering only its costs. This latter mistake is the one favoured in the drugs debate. People go on endlessly — and often exaggeratedly — about the health risks of taking drugs, as if this were sufficient to show that drugs are bad for you. This is absurd. If you consider only the costs, then everything is bad for you. Eating has its costs, such as the price of food and the risk of choking. Should we conclude that eating is bad for you?

The real question is not whether drug use has costs. Every activity has. The question is whether these costs exceed the benefits of drug use. It is easy to show that they do not, but we should first recognise what the main benefit is. This should be obvious but, for some reason, nobody involved in “the drugs debate” ever mentions it. The main benefit of taking drugs is that it is pleasurable. In fact, it can be incredibly pleasurable. That is why people do it.

And also why it is good for them. Drug users are simply people for whom the pleasure outweighs the risk of death, illness, addiction and all the rest. In other words, they are people for whom the benefits of drug use exceed the costs. They wouldn’t be drug users otherwise. The same is not true of everyone. Some value health more and pleasure less. For them, drug taking would deliver a net loss. Fine: these people would not take drugs even if they were legal.

The point is not peculiar to drugs. Change the example. Is playing lawn bowls good for you? That depends on the how much you value the upside (the exercise, the company, the nice white outfits) and how much you (dis)value the downside (the exercise, the company, the nice white outfits). If your values make lawn bowls a net benefit, you will play. If not, you won’t. Welfare and liberty are in perfect harmony. People voluntarily do only what is good for them.

Provided, of course, that they are properly informed. If you underestimate the cost of some activity, you might do it even though its costs exceed its benefits. This possibility is sometimes used to justify the criminalisation of drugs. But underestimation cuts both ways. People might fail to do something that is good for them because they underestimate the benefits. Those who have never taken Ecstasy might not know how wonderful it feels. Should it be made compulsory to eliminate this risk?

In 1990, 15 men who had voluntarily cut each others genitals for the sake of sexual gratification were convicted of assault. Why did their consent not stop this from being assault? If it did not, then why is rugby not assault? In the failed 1992 appeal, Lord Lane explained. Consent is a defence only if the physical damage is sustained for a worthwhile purpose. Rugby is a worthwhile purpose; sexual pleasure is not.

I suspect that something similar makes legislators systematically discount the benefits of drugs. It is not enough that people value something. To count it as a benefit, our betters in Westminster must deem it worthwhile. And, as with kinky sexual gratification, they do not consider getting high to be worthwhile.

It is not concern for our welfare that explains the illegality of drug use. It is bigotry.

The author is a philosopher

The Real Me

The Real Me (Natalie Grant)

Foolish heart looks like we're here again
Same old game of plastic smile
Don't let anybody in
Hiding my heartache, will this glass house break
How much will they take before I'm empty
Do I let it show, does anybody know?

CHORUS:
But You see the real me
Hiding in my skin, broken from within
Unveil me completely
I'm loosening my grasp
There's no need to mask my frality
'Cause You see the real me

Painted on, life is behind a mask
Self-inflicted circus clown
I'm tired of the song and dance
Living a charade, always on parade
What a mess I've made of my existence
But You love me even now
And still I see somehow

Chorus

Wonderful, beautiful is what You see
When You look at me
You're turning the tattered fabric of my life into
A perfect tapestry
I just wanna be me

Chorus

And You love me just as I am

Wonderful, beautiful is what You see
When You look at me

John Stuart Mills

Those who think drugs should be legalised — “only the soft ones, of course, we’re not crazy” — come over all John Stuart Mill. Consenting adults in a free country should be able to do to themselves whatever harm they choose. The State may rightly limit our freedom to prevent us from harming others, but not to prevent us from harming ourselves.

Mill was probably right. But the argument is not entirely helpful because it tacitly accepts that people harm themselves by taking drugs. And we live in an age where welfare trumps liberty every time. Modern politicians like to say that it is their very difficult job to find the balance between welfare and liberty. But it is not the least bit difficult to predict on which side their scales will always fall. So, to win our liberty, we must get legislators to see that drugs are in fact good for their users.

Brave New World by Huxley

Brave New World - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Introduction (Chapters 1-6)

The novel opens in London in the "year of our Ford 632" (AD 2540 in the Gregorian Calendar). In this world, the vast majority of the population is unified under The World State, an eternally peaceful, stable society, in which goods are plentiful and everyone is happy. In this society, natural reproduction has been done away with and children are decanted and raised in Hatcheries and Conditioning Centres. Society is divided into five castes, created in these centres. The highest caste is allowed to develop naturally while it matures in its "decanting bottle". The lower castes are treated to chemical interference to arrest intelligence or physical growth. The castes are Alphas, Betas, Gammas, Deltas, and Epsilons, with each caste further split into Plus and Minus members. Each Alpha or Beta is the product of one fertilized egg developing into one fetus. Members of other castes are not unique but are instead created using the Bokanovsky process which enables a single egg to spawn (at the point of the story being told) up to 96 children and one ovary to produce hundreds, if not thousands of children.

All members of society are conditioned in childhood to hold the values that the World State idealizes. Constant consumption is the bedrock of stability for the World State. Everyone is encouraged to consume the ubiquitous drug, soma. Soma is a hallucinogen that takes users on enjoyable, hangover-free "vacations".

Recreational heterosexual sex is an integral part of society. In The World State, sex is a social activity rather than a means of reproduction and is encouraged from early childhood; the few women who can reproduce are conditioned to take birth control. The maxim "everyone belongs to everyone else" is repeated often, and the idea of a "family" is repellent. As a result, sexual competition and emotional, romantic relationships are obsolete. Marriage is considered an antisocial dirty joke and a joke about natural birth or pregnancy is smut of the most vulgar kind.

Spending time alone is considered an outrageous waste of time. Admitting to wanting to be an individual in the social group is shocking, horrifying, and embarrassing. Conditioning trains people to consume and never to enjoy being alone, so by spending an afternoon not playing "Obstacle Golf", or not in bed with a friend, one is forfeiting acceptance.

In The World State, people typically die at age 60[4] having maintained good health and youthfulness their whole life. Death isn't feared; anyone reflecting upon it is reassured by the knowledge that everyone is happy, and that society goes on. Since no one has family, they have no ties to mourn.

The conditioning system eliminates the need for professional competitiveness; people are literally bred to do their jobs and cannot desire another. There is no competition within castes; each caste member receives the same food, housing, and soma rationing as every other member of that caste. There is no desire to change one's caste.

To grow closer with members of the same class, citizens participate in mock religious services called Solidarity Services. Twelve people consume large quantities of soma and sing hymns. The ritual progresses through group hypnosis and climaxes in an orgy.

In geographic areas non-conducive to easy living and consumption, The World State allows well controlled, securely contained groups of "savages" to live.

In its first chapters, the novel describes life in the World State and introduces Lenina and Bernard. Lenina, a beta plus, is a socially accepted woman, normal for her society, while Bernard, a psychologist, is an outcast. Although an Alpha Plus, Bernard is shorter in stature than the average of his caste -- a quality shared by the lower castes, which gives him an inferiority complex. He defies social norms and despises his equals. His work with sleep-teaching has led him to realize that what others believe to be their own deeply held beliefs are merely phrases repeated to children while they sleep. Courting disaster, he is vocal about being different, once stating he dislikes soma because he'd "rather be himself, sad, than another person, happy". Bernard's differences fuel rumors that he was accidentally administered alcohol while incubated, a method used to keep Epsilons short.

Bernard is obsessed with Lenina, attributing noble qualities and poetic potentials to her which she does not have. A woman who seldom questions her own motivations, Lenina is reprimanded by her friends because she is not promiscuous enough. Both fascinated and disturbed by Bernard, she responds to Bernard's advances to dispel her reputation for being too selective and monogamous.

Bernard's only friend is Helmholtz Watson, an Alpha-Plus lecturer at the College of Emotional Engineering (Department of Writing). Helmholtz is also an outcast, but unlike Bernard, it is because he is too gifted, too handsome. Helmholtz, successful, charming, attractive, is drawn to Bernard as a confidant: he can talk to Bernard about his desire to write poetry. Bernard likes Helmholtz because, unlike anyone else, Helmholtz likes Bernard. He is also, Bernard realizes, everything Bernard will never be.

[edit] The reservation and the Savage (chapters 7-9)

Bernard, desperately wanting Lenina's attentions, tries to impress her by taking her on holiday to a Savage Reservation. The reservation, located in New Mexico, consists of a community named Malpais (which in Spanish means "bad country", one of many Spanish puns throughout the novel). From afar, Lenina thinks it will be exciting. In person, she finds the aged, toothless natives who mend their clothes rather than throw them away repugnant, and the situation is made worse when she discovers that she has left her soma tablets at the resort hotel. Bernard is fascinated, although he realizes his seduction plans have failed.

In typical tourist fashion, Bernard and Lenina watch what at first appears to be a quaint native ceremony. The village folk, whose culture resembles that of the Pueblo peoples such as the Hopi and Zuni, begin by singing, but the ritual quickly becomes a passion play where a village boy is whipped to unconsciousness.

Soon after, the couple encounters Linda, a woman formerly of The World State who has been living in Malpais since she came on a trip and became separated from her group and her date, whom she refers to as "Tomakin" but who is revealed to be Bernard's boss, Thomas. She became pregnant because she mistimed her "Malthusian Drill" and there were no facilities for an abortion. Linda gave birth to a son, John (later referred to as John the Savage) who is now eighteen.

Through conversations with Linda and John, we learn that their life has been hard. For eighteen years, they have been treated as outsiders; the natives hate Linda for sleeping with all the men of the village, as she was conditioned to do and John was mistreated and excluded for his mother's actions, not to mention the role of racism. John's one joy was that his mother had taught him to read although he only had two books: a scientific manual from his mother's job and a collection of the works of Shakespeare (a work banned in The World State). John has been denied the religious rituals of the village, although he has watched them and even has had some of his own religious experiences in the desert.

Old, weathered and tired, Linda wants to return to her familiar world in London; she is tired of a life without soma. John wants to see the "brave new world" his mother has told him so much about. Bernard wants to take them back as revenge against Thomas, who threatened to reassign Bernard to Iceland as punishment for Bernard's antisocial beliefs. Bernard arranges permission for Linda and John to leave the reservation.

[edit] The Savage visits the World State (chapters 10-18)

Upon his return to London, Bernard is confronted by Thomas, the Director of the Hatchery and Conditioning Centre who, in front of an audience of higher-caste Centre workers, denounces Bernard for his antisocial behavior and again threatens to send him to Iceland. Bernard, thinking that for the first time in his life he has the upper hand, defends himself by presenting the Director with his lost lover and unknown son, Linda and John. The humiliated Director resigns in shame.

Bernard's new pet savage makes him the toast of London. Pursued by the highest members of society, able to bed any woman he fancies, Bernard revels in attention he once scorned. Everyone who is anyone will endure Bernard to dine with the interesting, different, beautiful John. Even Lenina grows fond of the savage, while the savage falls in love with her. Bernard, intoxicated with attention, falls in love with himself.

The victory, however, is short lived. Linda, decrepit, toothless, friendless, goes on a permanent soma holiday while John, appalled by what he perceives to be an empty society, refuses to attend Bernard's parties. Society drops Bernard as swiftly as it had taken him. Bernard turns to the person he'd believed to be his one true friend, only to see Helmholtz fall into a quick, easy camaraderie with John. Bernard is left an outcast yet again as he watches the only two men he ever connected with find more of interest in each other than they ever did in him.

John and Helmholtz's island of peace is brief. John grows frustrated by a society he finds wicked and debased. He is moved by Lenina, but also loathes her sexual advances, which revolt and shame him. He is heartbroken when his mother succumbs to soma and dies in a hospital. John's grief bewilders and revolts the hospital workers, and their lack of reaction to Linda's death prompts John to try to force humanity from the workers by throwing their soma rations out a window. The ensuing riot brings the police who soma-gas the crowd. Bernard and Helmholtz arrive to help John, but only Helmholtz helps him, while Bernard stands to the side, torn between risking involvement by helping or escaping the scene.

When they wake, Bernard, Helmholtz and John are brought before Mustapha Mond, the Resident World Controller for Western Europe. Bernard and Helmholtz are told they will be sent to Iceland and the Falkland Islands, two of several island colonies reserved for exiled citizens. Helmholtz looks forward to living on the remote Falkland Islands, where he can become a serious writer but Bernard is devastated, throws a fit and has to be dragged away. Mond explains that exile to the islands is not so much a threat to force freethinkers to reform and rejoin society but a place where they may act as they please, because they will not be an influence on the population. After Bernard and Helmholtz leave the room, a philosophical argument between Mustapha and John on morals behind the godless society, which leads to the decision that John will not be sent to an island. Mustapha says that he too once risked banishment to an island because of some experiments that were deemed controversial by the state, alluding to an understanding of Bernard's, Helmholtz' and John's position as outsiders and even ceding to John's perception of the flawed society.

In the final chapters, John isolates himself from society in a lighthouse outside London where he finds his hermit life interrupted from mourning his mother by the more bitter memories of civilization. To atone, John brutally whips himself in the open, a ritual the Indians in his own village had said he wasn't capable of. His self-flagellation, caught on film and shown publicly, destroys his hermit life from without as hundreds of gawking sightseers, intrigued by John's violent behavior, fly out to watch the savage in person. Even Lenina comes to watch, crying a tear John does not see. The sight of the woman whom he both adores and blames, is too much for him; John attacks and whips her. This sight of genuine, unbridled emotion drives the crowd wild with excitement, and – handling it as they are conditioned to – they turn on each other, in a frenzy of beating and chanting that devolves into a mass orgy of soma and sex. In the morning, John, hopeless, alone and horrified by his drug use, debasement and attack on Lenina, makes one last attempt to escape civilization and atone. When thousands of gawking sightseers arrive that morning, frenzied at the prospect of seeing the savage perform again, they find John dead, hanging by the neck.

Wildlife tragedy

Thousands of animals injured in Victoria&squo;s bushfires | Herald Sun

MORE than 10,000 native animals have fallen victim to the bushfire tragedy, wildlife experts say.

Experts estimate thousands more native and domestic animals not killed in the fires now face the threat of starvation.

* Victoria bushfires: latest news and pictures

Wildlife Victoria president John Rowden said the situation was exasperated by the loss of at least two wildlife shelters to the fires, while the safety of other shelters is still being assessed.

RSPCA chief Maria Mercurio said RSPCA shelters and inspectors were working around the clock to be ready to provide emergency assistance to animals affected by the bushfires.

"The impact is devastating - on people, animals and wildlife - these are not normal times or conditions ... the scale of the disaster is overwhelming,'' she said.

Working out of the Whittlesea relief centre, Ms Mercurio said teams were preparing to enter ravaged areas as soon as they are declared safe.

“We are preparing for the worst. Our inspectors are gearing up to work with various government departments and other animal welfare agencies to provide emergency care to wildlife, companion animals and livestock.

“We will be delivering emergency pet food to relief centres across Victoria including food donated by Hill's Pet Nutrition.

"We've been talking to quite a lot of people at the centre and a lot are telling us they are very worried about pets they have left behind, and there are lots of them,'' she said.

While she said it was too difficult to calculate figures, early estimates run into the thousands.

There are also reports that 100 head of cattle in makeshift paddocks may be let loose in Kinglake in a hope that they will find food and water.

Owners are running out of supplies for the cattle, and with police not allowing extra supplies to go up the mountain, there are fears the cattle will have to be put down or let loose to run around on busfhire affected ground.

Rod Carnegie of Whittlesea-based agricultural company Landmark said it was vital to get food to the stock as soon as possible.

"If they let them back out to find food and water they will run around on the roads.

"If we don't get up there soon they will die."

Meanwhile, The National Farmers Federation says it has been inundated with phone calls from farmers across the country wanting to "lend a hand" in whatever way they can.

NFF president David Crombie said the federation was working with the Victorian branch to work out what was needed on the ground.

"Farmers across the country are rallying to the aid of those devastated by bushfires," he said.

The Tasmanian Farmers and Graziers Association has offered loads of fodder for shipment to fire and drought affected areas to keep livestock alive, while other states are looking at similar measures.

The events of the last few days "rammed home" the devastating and bitter extremes that people on the land face, Mr Crombie said.

"No one is immune."

The University of Melbourne's faculty of Veterinary Science has also offered free care for animals injured in the fires.

The free care is available for pets and horses and will be provided at the university's veterinary clinic and hospital at Werribee, in Melbourne's southwest.

Faculty dean Professor Ken Hinchcliff said his staff were "deeply concerned" for the health and well-being of animals and their owners in bushfire-affected regions.

"After ensuring the safety of themselves and their human loved ones, people affected by the bushfires will want to ensure that their pets are cared for and receive the
veterinary attention they need," he said.

"Veterinary services in the regions affected by bushfires will be stretched to the limit."

Those with injured dogs and cats can phone the veterinary clinic on 9731 2232 (24 hours).

Those with injured horses should phone the university's equine centre on 9731 2268 (24 hours).

People requiring short term emergency accomodation or veterinary care for pets can also phone the RSPCA on 9224 2222.

- with Gareth Trickey and AAP

Sam... the famous koala

Victorian bushfire survivor, Sam the koala, a global star | Herald Sun

SAM became the most famous koala in the world when firefighter David Tree stopped to give him a drink amid the devastation.

Pictures of Sam, who turned out to be female, travelled around the globe and featured in major newspapers including The New York Times, London's The Sun and on CNN.

The image provided a much-needed picture of hope in a week filled with news of despair. Yesterday Sam was recovering in Mountain Ash Wildlife Shelter.


Carer Jenny Shaw said she suffered burns on her paws and was in a lot of pain, but was on the road to recovery.

She was put on an IV drip and is on antibiotics and pain relief treatment.

"She is lovely - very docile - and she has already got an admirer. A male koala keeps putting his arms around her," Ms Shaw said. "She will need regular attention and it will be a long road to recovery, but she should be able to be released back into the wild in about five months."

Mr Tree said he was surprised by the reaction to the photograph, which was snapped by a fellow CFA volunteer on a mobile phone.

He said he was in the middle of backburning at Mirboo North when he saw the stricken koala. "I could see she had sore feet and was in trouble, so I pulled over the fire truck. She just plonked herself down, as if to say 'I'm beat'," he said.

"I offered her a drink and she drank three bottles.

"The most amazing part was when she grabbed my hand. I will never forget that."

Mr Tree and his brigade then received an emergency call-out to save a house, but minutes later Sam was picked up by wildlife carers.

She is one of 22 koalas, 14 ringtail possums, several wallabies and eastern grey kangaroos that have been handed into Gippsland carers.

Anyone who finds injured wildlife should call Wildlife Connect on 13 11 11.

JB Hi-Fi

High fives for JB Hi-Fi as it defies sales gloom

I am not trying to advertise anything....I get nothing from them anyway. I just want to trace back a memory while I was in Melbourne.  I do like this store. Yellow and black are good combination. You don't follow. It is alright.

"We have one of the strongest balance sheets of any listed retailer and the capacity to take advantage of any opportunities that might present themselves."

In the six months to December, JB Hi-Fi stores reported higher numbers of customers passing through their doors compared to a year ago, and shoppers spent the same amount as they did a year ago.

Sales at stores trading for more than a year grew by 11 per cent, and overall sales grew by 28 per cent to $1.26 billion. It now expects full-year sales to come in at $2.35 billion.

Mr Uechtritz was "cautiously optimistic" that the stores would "continue to trade well in the current economic environment" due to the continued consumer confidence of men aged from 18 to 35 who have high disposable incomes to spend on CDs, DVDs and games.

Rendition and Guantanamo

Rendition case to stay a state secret | theage.com.au

This is very interesting article by Peter Finn. When I read this piece, I remembered the movie titled "Rendition"Washington, which I watched last year. It is sad that human nature has caused disease to others. My prayers are for you all the victim of rendition.

* February 11, 2009

THE Obama Administration has invoked the same state secrets privilege as its predecessor to oppose the reinstatement of a lawsuit alleging that a Boeing unit flew people to countries where they were tortured as part of the CIA's "extraordinary rendition" program.

The Justice Department's stance on the case in San Francisco came despite a pledge by Attorney-General Eric Holder, at his confirmation hearing and again on Monday in a statement, to review all assertions of the state secrets privilege.

The American Civil Liberties Union brought the case on behalf of five foreigners who were allegedly transferred to countries where they were tortured under interrogation.

One of the five, Binyam Mohammed, a British resident, claims in court papers in the US and Britain that he was flown to Morocco and held there for nearly two years after his capture in Pakistan. He is now in the US military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

Mohammed and the others are seeking unspecified damages.

Leon Panetta, Mr Obama's nominee to head the CIA, told Congress he would end the practice of transferring suspects to countries where they were at risk of being tortured.

The Bush administration argued that the lawsuit against Jeppesen DataPlan, a Boeing unit based in Colorado, threatened the country's national security interests. In federal court on Monday, the panel of three judges asked the Government if there was any change in its position because of the new Administration.

A Justice Department attorney said the Government stood by its brief, which was filed by the Bush administration.

A Justice official said the new Administration decided the lawsuit involved state secrets that needed to be protected.

Ben Wizner, an ACLU staff lawyer who argued the case for the plaintiffs, condemned the decision as Mr Obama's ratification of the Bush administration's "extreme policies", which he said prevented torture victims from seeking redress.

"This Administration is going to have to face the issue of accountability, and the Administration cannot pretend the last seven years didn't happen," he said.

The suit was filed by the ACLU in May 2007 and was dismissed last February. The organisation told the federal appeals court the suit should to be reinstated. A decision in the case may take several months.

The Government has invoked the state secrets privilege in a number of cases in recent years, including various suits concerning the National Security Agency's wiretapping program.

WASHINGTON POST
Lawyer fears for Guantanamo inmate

BINYAM Mohamed, the British resident at the centre of a legal battle over alleged torture, could leave Guantanamo Bay insane or in a coffin if the case is dragged out, his lawyer says.

"It's amazing he has lasted this long," Yvonne Bradley said. She last saw Mohamed in January after authorities began force-feeding him. His weight dropped to about 55 kilograms. "He is very poor, mentally, physically and emotionally," she said.

saturday's inferno

Victoria's bushfires may be the first of many to come | The Australian

THE forecast for Saturday was unequivocal: Victorians were facing the worst fire weather day on record. The question is why, with computer technology providing detailed information about fire locations and weather conditions that was unimaginable even a decade ago, analysis based on the best fire research in the world, and an army of agencies fighting the fire and providing services, the death toll from Saturday's holocaust not only broke all records but exceeded our worst fears.

The severity of bushfires is determined by a number of key factors: weather, including drought; fuel load; topography; the location of the population; their houses; and householders' preparedness to manage fire.

But in the same way that the past is no longer a guide to future water management in Australia, Saturday showed bushfire risk in this country has entered a new era.

The bottom line is that Australia is a continent like no other when it comes to fire. Stephen Pyne, the author of Burning Bush: A Fire History of Australia, points out that wet and dry cycles set the scene for massive fires. The vegetation flourishes in the wet, then parches and even burns in the dry. Our dominant tree, the eucalypt, has evolved to live with fire. Eucalypts drop vast amounts of highly flammable leaf litter.

Some, such as the stringy-barks, feature long tongues of bark that carry fire to the leaves with their high level of volatile compounds. Ignited bark can fly ahead, creating spot fires. After fire, eucalypts send out new green shoots and their seeds, released by the heat, germinate in the bed of ash.

Pyne argues it was only after the 1939 Black Friday fires that Australians understood they could not control bushfire and would have to live with it.

Most of Australia's significant bushfires have led to changes in where and how we live in this fire-prone land. Australians might love their tree change, their homes among the gum trees, but the question has to be asked: how safe will that home be in southeastern Australia in a hotter, drier future?

Athol Hodgson was chief fire officer in the forerunner to Victoria's Department of Sustainability and Environment. The first fire he fought was as a nine-year-old, defending his father's farm at Corryong on Black Friday. "We saved our house and paddocks and cows. I still remember it vividly," he says. "But when you add up all the things that drive bushfires, Saturday was certainly the worst we have ever had."

Hodgson, a lifelong forester, says the driver of the fire was very dry fuel. "You can't live cheek by jowl with the sort of vegetation that we grow and expect to survive on a day which every 20 years or so happens."

He is full of praise for the firefighters, the volunteers and the police. "They are going a magnificent job, but it is a job they shouldn't have to do," he says.

After the 1939 bushfires, in which 71 people died and 1.4 million hectares were burned, the Stretton royal commission recommended that sawmills and their workers be moved out of the forests. "Then we went through many years when (not many people died) in fires because people didn't live in the bush," Hodgson says.

In the 1960s, after fires in the Dandenongs, on the outskirts of Melbourne, "as the Forest Commission, we were given the money to buy back properties and compulsorily acquired a lot of standing houses", he recalls.

The 1994 fires around Sydney produced startling evidence of the importance of planning rules. On the Illawong-Menai side of the Woronora River, there was about 20km of housing-bushland interface. In that whole area about half a dozen houses were destroyed and a similar number were damaged. On the other side, the Como-Jannali side of the river, there was 1.5km to 2km of bushland interface, but about 85 houses were totally destroyed and quite a large number were damaged.

It was the same fire: the difference was Illawong-Menai had been developed under town planning and house building rules that were formulated with an understanding of bushfire behaviour.

Hodgson was frustrated by the Victorian government's response after the 1983 Ash Wednesday fires in the Otways. "We proposed the same thing apply again and the government stop rebuilding. But it was a different government and they said, 'No way, you can't do that to people.'

"The planning process could have a greater effect on the destruction of houses and deaths than the number of red fire trucks you have," he says.

Bushfire Co-operative Research Centre chief executive Gary Morgan says three things are needed to survive a bushfire: "Knowledge, that is where the research comes from; you need experience; and then there is communications, it is about knowing where fires are."

He says Australia has excellent research on building in bushfire-prone areas, on what he calls "creating defendable space", and on fire behaviour. He says the next stage of research, pending funding, will be in the area of the social sciences, "about what people do and how do we make better decisions".

"Firefighting today is not about a tanker being at a door," Morgan says. "It is about the whole community knowing what to do and the shared risk and responsibility. That is what our research is telling us and that is what the agencies are focusing on."

The Victorian agencies have been asking fire-prone households to put together a fire plan, to either leave early or stay and defend a well-prepared house. The large number of people who lost their lives on Saturday on the road, fleeing in cars at the last minute, will no doubt be the subject of a future inquiry.

Morgan says research shows people are safer in a house, "even if you can't do the defending". He says cars these days are mainly made from PVC "and the fumes are really toxic and they are going to knock people down before the car burns, so you are not much better than being on foot".

Phil Cheney, the former head of CSIRO's Bushfire Research Unit, says fires come down to fuel loads. "If you put your home in the forest, as a lot of those places were, it is very, very difficult to survive. The sort of recommendations about staying with your home were really predicated on the home being practically fuel-free for something like 50m around it. It becomes exponentially more difficult as you get these big heaps of forest fuel. Marysville is tall stringybark forest country, it generates a lot of fuel."

Cheney says there has not been enough fuel reduction in Victoria, in the form of controlled winter fires or prescribed burning.

He compares it to the West Australian experience. "One of the reasons why the losses in WA are low compared with anywhere else in Australia is because of the prescribed burning. People in that peri-urban forest area are being constantly reminded by the smoke in the air that the stuff around them burns."

Cheney says Western Australia has an annual target for prescribed burning. "The telling statistic to me is their land managers in the forested areas spend somewhere between 21 and 25 per cent of their time on fire management. I would be surprised if the figure in Victoria was over 5 per cent. The West Australians have a huge commitment and it works."

In January 2003 a mega-fire roared into Canberra, rewriting the fire rules. The term mega-fire was coined in California to describe a series of fires of unprecedented ferocity that had burned in the US since 2000.

Mega-fires are typically formed from several fires, often covering a huge area. They exhibit complex behaviour, releasing atomic bomb-like amounts of energy. They create their own weather and defy attempts to control them.

Hodgson says: "When a fire gets beyond a certain intensity, then forget about trying to put it out. You are going to have to wait until it runs out of fuel or the weather changes. Having three air cranes flying around is not going to help you one bit."

The mega-fire is a new phenomenon for Australian firefighters. Another is climate change and the increased possibility of more frequent severe fire weather days.

In 2006, as mega-fires burned through rural Victoria, Victorian Emergency Services commissioner Bruce Esplin warned that the change in climate should be changing the way fire seasons are managed. "There really is a need for a rethink. The emergency services, the public land managers and the community need to recognise that this dryness and this extreme fire danger is something that we need to prepare for all year, every year," he said in 2006. "It is not just something we do for the bad years."

Saturday was the hottest day on record for most of Victoria. Melbourne set a new record with 46.4C. The previous record, 45.6C, had been set on Black Friday, January 13, 1939. Throughout the state, temperatures have exceeded those experienced during the 1939 heatwave. January was another dry month in Victoria, the last in a long series of dry times stretching back across a decade.

Blair Trewin, from the National Climate Centre, says the area north of Melbourne that burned on Saturday had been markedly dry for the past 10 years. "Most of that area has been about 20per cent below the historic average (rainfall) over the last 12 years. That is way outside any previous period of comparable length," he says.

Trewin says that long-term drying is consistent with climate change. And he argues climate change has nudged the temperature up a degree. "It turned your 45s into 46s and your 46s into 47s."

Graham Mills, from the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, says scientists have "a good understanding at a quite advanced level" of fire weather, "but there are always more things to find out".

Mills says the conditions that lead to extreme fire weather are heat, low humidity, wind and drought: "The more of that you have at the same time, the worse the fires are, as we saw the other day."

But he says that relationship is not a simple, linear equation: a small change in one can lead to a hugely increased fire risk.

On Saturday the temperature set new records. And this led to another problem. "When you get those conditions, nobody has really had experience of them ever before," Mills observes. He says most studies on future climate conditions, such as that undertaken by the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, "suggest that the fire weather will get worse. The temperatures are projected to increase and the rainfall is projected to decrease, so you have two factors that are going to get worse."

Mills says they have "a little bit of a study" on extreme fire weather fronts. "There is some evidence, although there is a great deal of uncertainty, that the frequency of these fronts will increase during the 21st century, if the climate projection models are correct."

Reporter's courage in the face of Victoria bushfire threat

World lauds reporter's courage in the face of Victoria bushfire threat | The Australian

NEIGHBOURS of Gary Hughes yesterday praised the journalist's bravery in saving their home, as his story reverberated online around the world.

Hughes's selflessness in saving another's home after having lost his own drew almost 70 responses from Europe to the US, as his report was republished in The Times, The Sun and on the London newspapers' websites.

"Today I will put your story on the bulletin board of our school ... both to show the courage of the author and as a warning about how bad bushfires can be," Hilary Martin of Berkeley, California, told The Australian Online. "We have forest fires, too, inCalifornia but nothing to compare with this. You can start all over again, you can do it. Ozzie hang on."

In Britain, The Times Online said, "Australia ablaze: 'Hell in all its fury' brings death to Victoria".

The CNN website said, "Scores killed in Australia's worst fires", while The New York Times headlined its story, "Death Toll in Australian Fires Climbs to 108".

In a region that frequently battles its own severe wildfires, the LA Times said: "Death toll hits 108 as Australia fires rage."

On the front page of The Australian yesterday, Hughes described his frantic struggle to save his family as the bushfire rapidly advanced on his home.
RELATED LINKS

*
"They warn you it comes fast," he wrote. "But the word 'fast' doesn't come anywhere near it."

As Hughes fled under a hail of embers, his car buffeted by gale-force winds, the police reporter risked his life to alert the Country Fire Authority that his neighbour's house was under threat.

"The house of our nearest neighbour, David, who owns a vineyard, has so far escaped. But aportable office attached to onewall is billowing smoke," Hughes wrote. "I leave the safety of the car and cross the fence. Where is the CFA, he frantically asks. With the CFA's help, perhaps we can save his house. What's their number, he asks me. I tell him we had already rung 000, before our own house burnt."

Yesterday in an email, Cathy Lance, wife of his neighbour, David Lance, thanked Hughes for his actions. "Dear Gary, Words cannot express how grateful we are to you and your dear family for alerting the CFA to help David just before our attached office was about to explode in flames," Ms Lance wrote.

"They couldn't save the office, but this quick action saved ourhouse ... We send our love and heartfelt thanks. The Lance Family."

Hughes last night said his family had "had enough of living in the Australian bush".

"When we drove down that hill on Saturday afternoon, it was a moonscape," Hughes told the ABC's 7.30 Report.

"I mean fully mature trees were just burning stumps. It will take a generation to regenerate."

Bushfire...Black Sunday 08022009...I am so sorry.....this is really appaling..

The Australian, News from Australia's National Newspaper
Bushfire in Victoria is the largest since 1983. Black Sunday 2009 will be remembered, always. Actually, it is common this kind of bushfire happens in Australia including Victoria. However, this year in the very hot February, the fire has taken many lives. I am so sorry for them. It is predicted that the total number will be 300 people. Gosh....life is mysterious...........*sigh*

There Ain't no reason (Brett Dennen)

I like this song

There aint no reason things are this way
Its how they always been and it tends to stay
I can't explain why we live this way, we do it everyday
Preachers on the podeum speaking of saints
Prophets on the sidewalk begging for change
old ladies laughing from the fire escape cursing my name
I got a basket full of lemons and they all taste the same
A window and a pigeon with a broken wing
You can spend you whole life working for something,
Just to have it taken away
People walk aroun pushing back their debts
Wearing pay checks like necklaces and braceltes
Talking bout nothing, not thinking bout' death
Every little hearbeat, every little breath
People walk a tight rope
On a razors edge
Carrying their hurt and hatrid and weapons
It could be a bomb or a bullet or a pen
Or a thought or a word or a sentence

There Ain't no reason
Things are this way
It's how they've always been
and its tends to stay
I dont know why I say
The things that I say
But I say them anyway
But love will come set me free
Love will come set me free, I do believe
Love will come set me free, I know it will
Love will come set my free yes.

Prison walls still standing tall
Some things never change at all
Keep on building prisons, gonna fill them all
Keep building bombs, gonna drop them all
Working young fingers bear to the bone
Breaking your back make you sell your soul
Like a lung its filled with cold, sufficating slow
The wind blows wild and I may move
The politions lie and i am not fooled
you don't need no reason or a three piece suit
To argue the truth
The air on my skin and the world under my toes
Labor is stiched into the fabric of my clothes
Chaos and comotion wherever I go
Love I try to follow

Love will come set me free
Love will come set me free, I do believe
Love will come set me free, I know it will
Love will come set my free yes.

There ain't no reason things are this way
Its how its always been and it tends to stay
I can't explain why we live this way,
We do it everyday.

Melbourne's Radical Bookshop

From Utopian Dreaming To Communal Reality Co Operative Lifestyles In Australia
Metcalf, Bill. An examination of communal living in Australia that tears down common stereotypes of aging hippes and crystal worship.

http://www.nibs.org.au/

Powered by ScribeFire.

Changeling

Big Screen - Detailed Information for  "Changeling" - www.cinephilia.net.au

Synopsis: Christine Collins (Angelina Jolie). a working single mother, leaves her 9-year-old son, Walter (Gattlin Griffith) alone when she is called in on a Saturday. She returns to find the boy gone. Five months later the Los Angeles Police Department contact Christine with good news – her son is alive and well. But when the boy is returned to her she knows this supposed Walter (Devon Conti) is not her son. Bullied by the police into taking this lad in, she embarks upon a gruelling quest to find the truth. Aided by the crusading minister Rev. Gustav Briegleb (John Malkovitch) she battles the corrupt LAPD, headed by Capt. Jones (Jeffrey Donovan), and the nightmarish public psychiatric system in which women creating any problems for the police are declared mad and locked away.

Screenwriter Michael Straczynski stumbled across this true story by accident shortly before the LA City Hall was about to incinerate some of its records. The incredible story of one woman’s seven-year fight against bureaucracy spoke to him of fabulous fodder for a script and indeed it is just that. This story is at once terrifying, inspiring and despite its historical setting, still relevant in the sense that small people going up against ‘the machine’ need all the courage and support they can get.

The film works marvellously on so many levels and is again testament to Eastwood’s sure hand as a director. It is a film that gets you totally up in arms against corruption (the LAPD has been a well-used example of this in so many films over the years). It is also heartbreaking in the scenes of the inhumane treatment of the women in the psychiatric institution into which Christine is thrown, all on the signature of a corrupt cop who simply wants to get her out of sight lest she expose his incompetence. Changeling also functions splendidly as a thriller, with tension and fear for young Walter built up from the early scenes. And the thriller element really hots up when one of the (non-corrupt) investigating police discovers a possible link to a creepy serial killer, Gordon Northcott (played chillingly by Jason Butler Harner).

The casting is quite faultless. Angelina Jolie, very impressive in last year's A Mighty Heart and always stunningly beautiful, eschews her sex-symbol persona for a serious and determined character with the strength to bring down a police department. John Malkovitch, for my vote one of the best actors of the modern era, is mesmerising as the crusading Reverend, who wages a relentless battle via radio and his pulpit against a police force he perceives as deeply corrupt. He also becomes a true friend to Collins. The power-hungry Jones is finely executed by Donovan, as are the assorted harsh nurses and doctors running the asylum. Of note is a small role, Carol Dexter (Amy Ryan), a fellow inmate in the asylum, another strong and feisty woman, determined to fight against those corrupt cops who use their power “to create insane woman”.

Jolie has just been nominated for a Best Actress award, and the film has another two nominations for cinematography and art direction, all justly deserved, as Los Angeles in the 1920s comes to vivid life.

Despite being a long film, Changeling holds one’s attention until the very end, which goes years beyond the main focus of the plot and gives deeper retrospective insights into what really happened. Although the subject matter may be distressing to some, the film represents the best sort of filmmaking – taking the truth, with fine actors and a top director, and setting it up on the big screen in a way that entertains and inspires.

Powered by ScribeFire.

January in Sunshine

Big Screen - Detailed Information for  "Australia" - www.cinephilia.net.au

Synopsis: In Northern Australia prior to World War II, an English aristocrat, Lady Sarah Ashley (Nicole Kidman) takes over the running of a cattle station, Faraway Downs, after the tragic death of her husband. When she discovers that cattle baron, King Carney (Bryan Brown) is plotting to take her land, she reluctantly joins forces with “Drover” (Hugh Jackman) to drive 1.500 head of cattle across hundreds of miles of the country's most unforgiving land to Darwin, accompanied by an Aboriginal boy, Nullah (Brandon Walters).

If, as the media has reported, Nicole Kidman is considering retiring, Australia will make a fitting book-end to a remarkable career that more or less started with her appearance in Bush Christmas, a kid’s adventure film set in the Australian outback, twenty five years ago. Returning to native soil she once again stars in a story of derring-do and family values and acquits herself handsomely. Baz Luhrmann’s much-trumpeted film is a wonderful big-screen spectacle that, as did Indiana Jones And The Raiders of Lost Ark (1981) in its day, delights with its all-out tongue-in-cheek sense of humour and marvellous production values.

Well…for the most part. For, whilst being a first-class production, dramatically it is fatally flawed by its two-part narrative structure. The first part, which concerns the cattle drove and the bonding between Sarah, Nullah and Drover, delivers just about everything you could ever want from an adventure-romance – a dashing hero and a beautiful heroine pitting themselves against the overwhelming forces of evil with the assistance of a plucky young boy, together triumphing and falling in love. The second part, which follows the trio’s stories as Nullah is taken away by the missionaries under the then-Government-sanctioned assimilation program and WW2 arrives in the form of the Japanese bombing of Darwin, shifts the film’s emotional tone from the relatively escapist mood of the first part to something much darker and, if not realistic, then at least referring much more emphatically to the real world. Not only does it add nothing to the film thematically or dramatically, this part of the story ending up in exactly the same place emotionally as the first part, but in exceeding the natural emotional and narrative closure that comes around the 2 hour mark with the completion of the drive, it loses its hold. What worked so well in the first part is redundant in the second with too much CGI enhancement, too many settings we’d already witnessed revisited, too many generic story-telling devices and with no dramatic or character developments to give any of it a justification. A simple cut at the end of the first part would have made Australia a near-perfect genre film. The second part could easily have formed the bulk of a sequel. It wouldn’t have been as good but at least it wouldn’t have tarnished the achievements of its predecessor.

Why Luhrmann and his team decided to go with the film in its present form is not clear but presumably it was motivated by the need to satisfy its rather grandiose and hubristically appropriational title. In this respect it is not successful. The whole bombing of Darwin sequence is far too anonymous to speak to anyone’s sense of national pride (and the representation of the Japanese is particularly ill-judged). The film is no more (and possibly even less) deserving of its title than The Castle or The Chant Of Jimmie Blacksmith. Its other tilt at our collective consciousness comes in its address to the issue of the “Stolen Generation”. Whilst it is to its credit that it incorporates this subject into its plot, and despite its opening and closing titles, Australia is no more “about” this than it is about British Imperialism (and in this respect, hats off to Ben Mendelsohn for his Captain Dutton) and the cultural cringe that shaped our national thinking at least until the 1970s when assimilation ceased to be government policy. With justice, Luhrmann’s film should have been called “Once Upon A Time In Australia”. Not only would it have more clearly reflected the film's cornball parameters but also made itself a much smaller target for the barrage of politically-correct critical vitriol that has been heaped upon it.

Overall Australia is a lot of fun and technically, a masterful piece of film-making (the budget was over $150m). The cast is a who’s who of Australian film, Mandy Walker’s photography is stunning and the production design superb. But do yourself a favour - walk out once the drove is completed and Nullah’s voice-over has summarised their story. Believe me, you will have seen a damn fine film. Stay and you’ll see one that might have been.

Powered by ScribeFire.

milk

Big Screen - Detailed Information for  "Milk" - www.cinephilia.net.au

Synopsis: A docu-drama about Harvey Milk, pioneering San Francisco gay activist who was assassinated in 1978.

Across the board, 2009 will be a tough year for the Oscars. There are so many excellent films and performances in contention that the idea of choosing the “best” in any category is irrelevant. Is Milk the best film, is Gus Van Sant the best director, is Dustin Lance Black’s script the best script? Compared to the co-nominees I wouldn’t like to say but if I had to chose Best Male Actor I’d give it to Sean Penn. Stretching back to 1985’s The Falcon And The Snowman, Penn has been given to portraying emotionally edgy characters. He does it well and usually in interesting films but to a certain extent it is his schtick. His Harvey Milk, however, is probably his finest work to date as an actor simply because he gives us such a remarkably un-Sean Penn-like portrayal of the man. As anyone who has seen the excellent Academy Award-winning documentary The Times of Harvey Milk (1984) will attest, Penn captures Milk with extraordinary authenticity, not by mimicry but by embodying his spirit. As fine as is Frank Langella’s Nixon, as touching as is Mickey Rourke’s Randy 'The Ram' Robinson, to cite the two closet rivals for the Best Actor trophy, neither actor achieves the level of transformation which Penn does. That he portrays such a rare, committed individual as Milk should also work in his favour.

Although the lynch-pin of the film, Penn is only one of the elements that make it so good. The rest of the cast are excellent with Josh Brolin particularly effective as Milk's beleaguered political opponent and eventual assassin, Dan White whilst James Franco gives a winning showing as Scott, Harvey’s long-time lover. Emile Hirsch, who starred in the Penn-directed Into the Wild in 2007 has a smaller role, one that I found slightly irritating in its self-conscious earnestness, a quality that is perhaps one of the few criticisms that one might address to the film. Milk is however, not a warts-and-all biopic but rather a celebration of Milk and what he achieved for gay rights in pre-AIDS America.

In this respect the film is impressive, Dustin Lance Black’s script gives us both a sensitive portrait of Milk and a detailed account of his political career whilst Van Sant uses archival footage skilfully to give us an insight into a level of normative discrimination that was only rivalled in its God-given bigotry by Jim Crow segregation. Unlike the civil rights movement which in some 40 years has achieved remarkable results in America, the director, who is himself gay, no doubt is aware that gay rights are less firmly entrenched in the Land of the Free and as much as the film is about a struggle some thirty years ago, it is a call for eternal vigilance. In this respect the use he makes of archival footage of Anita Bryant, who almost overturned gay rights in America with her evangelistic “family values” rhetoric, is truly frightening.

After a long run of quite difficult “art” films extending back to 2002’s Gerry, Milk is a return towards a more mainstream style of film-making for Van Sant. It is a skilful production. with Van Sant striking a nice balance between documentary and drama, between the specifics of the gays rights movement and the broader issues of civil rights activism. In this respect the film speaks not simply to a same-sex audience but to anyone who values self-determination. Whether The Academy of Motion Picture, Arts and Sciences votes Milk Best Picture or not, it is certainly a fine one.

Powered by ScribeFire.

I've Loved You So Long

Powered by ScribeFire.

Specializing in independent, art-house, cult, classic and Australian films

Big Screen presents list of films currently showing around town - www.cinephilia.net.au

Powered by ScribeFire.

Robot's rights

BBC NEWS | Technology | The ethical dilemmas of robotics

The ethical dilemmas of robotics

Researcher gazes at a robot

If the idea of robot ethics sounds like something out of science fiction, think again, writes Dylan Evans.

Scientists are already beginning to think seriously about the new ethical problems posed by current developments in robotics.

This week, experts in South Korea said they were drawing up an ethical code to prevent humans abusing robots, and vice versa. And, a group of leading roboticists called the European Robotics Network (Euron) has even started lobbying governments for legislation.

At the top of their list of concerns is safety. Robots were once confined to specialist applications in industry and the military, where users received extensive training on their use, but they are increasingly being used by ordinary people.

Robot vacuum cleaners and lawn mowers are already in many homes, and robotic toys are increasingly popular with children.

As these robots become more intelligent, it will become harder to decide who is responsible if they injure someone. Is the designer to blame, or the user, or the robot itself?

Decisions

Software robots - basically, just complicated computer programmes - already make important financial decisions. Whose fault is it if they make a bad investment?

Old-fashioned robot toy
Robots have become a lot more intelligent over the decades
Isaac Asimov was already thinking about these problems back in the 1940s, when he developed his famous "three laws of robotics".

He argued that intelligent robots should all be programmed to obey the following three laws:

*

A robot may not injure a human being, or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm

* A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law

* A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law

These three laws might seem like a good way to keep robots from harming people. But to a roboticist they pose more problems than they solve. In fact, programming a real robot to follow the three laws would itself be very difficult.

For a start, the robot would need to be able to tell humans apart from similar-looking things such as chimpanzees, statues and humanoid robots.

This may be easy for us humans, but it is a very hard problem for robots, as anyone working in machine vision will tell you.

Robot 'rights'

Similar problems arise with rule two, as the robot would have to be capable of telling an order apart from a casual request, which would involve more research in the field of natural language processing.

Nasa's Robonaut, Eric Ishii Eckhardt
Nasa's Robotnaut is designed to work on Mars
Asimov's three laws only address the problem of making robots safe, so even if we could find a way to program robots to follow them, other problems could arise if robots became sentient.

If robots can feel pain, should they be granted certain rights? If robots develop emotions, as some experts think they will, should they be allowed to marry humans? Should they be allowed to own property?

These questions might sound far-fetched, but debates over animal rights would have seemed equally far-fetched to many people just a few decades ago. Now, however, such questions are part of mainstream public debate.

And the technology is progressing so fast that it is probably wise to start addressing the issues now.

One area of robotics that raises some difficult ethical questions, and which is already developing rapidly, is the field of emotional robotics.


More pressing moral questions are already being raised by the increasing use of robots in the military
This is the attempt to endow robots with the ability to recognise human expressions of emotion, and to engage in behaviour that humans readily perceive as emotional. Humanoid heads with expressive features have become alarmingly lifelike.

David Hanson, an American scientist who once worked for Disney, has developed a novel form of artificial skin that bunches and wrinkles just like human skin, and the robot heads he covers in this can smile, frown, and grimace in very human-like ways.

These robots are specifically designed to encourage human beings to form emotional attachments to them. From a commercial point of view, this is a perfectly legitimate way of increasing sales. But the ethics of robot-human interaction are more murky.

David Hanson's K bot, AAAS 2003
David Hanson's K bot can mimic human expressions

Jaron Lanier, an internet pioneer, has warned of the dangers such technology poses to our sense of our own humanity. If we see machines as increasingly human-like, will we come to see ourselves as more machine-like?

Lanier talks of the dangers of "widening the moral circle" too much.

If we grant rights to more and more entities besides ourselves, will we dilute our sense of our own specialness?

This kind of speculation may miss the point, however. More pressing moral questions are already being raised by the increasing use of robots in the military.

The US military plans to have a fifth of its combat units fully automated by the year 2020. Asimov's laws don't apply to machines which are designed to harm people. When an army can strike at an enemy with no risk to lives on its own side, it may be less scrupulous in using force.

If we are to provide intelligent answers to the moral and legal questions raised by the developments in robotics, lawyers and ethicists will have to work closely alongside the engineers and scientists developing the technology. And that, of course, will be a challenge in itself.

Dylan Evans is an independent scientist and writer

Powered by ScribeFire.

Robotology

Forget robot rights, experts say, use them for public safety | Science | The Guardian

Scientists have criticised a government report which advocated a debate on granting rights to super-intelligent robots in the future as "a distraction". They say the public should instead be consulted over the use of robots by the military and police, as carers for the elderly and as sex toys.

The robotics experts were commenting on a report published by the Office of Science and Innovation's Horizon Scanning Centre in December. The authors of Robo-rights: Utopian dream or rise of the machines? wrote: "If artificial intelligence is achieved and widely deployed (or if they can reproduce and improve themselves) calls may be made for human rights to be extended to robots."

The idea of robots becoming so smart that they acquire a conscious sense of self has fascinated science fiction writers for generations. The recent films I, Robot and Bicentennial Man, both based on books by Isaac Asimov, dealt with the question of whether intelligent robots should enjoy human rights. In the first a policeman played by Will Smith tracks a robot called Sonny that has apparently gone against its programming to commit murder. In the second Andrew the robot embarks on the quest for equal rights.

But the scientists said true robot intelligence is so far in the future that it should not be treated as anything more than science fiction. "It's really premature I think to discuss robot rights," said Owen Holland, a computer scientist and expert on machine consciousness at Essex University. "[This report] is certainly not based on science and it is not realistic."

Noel Sharkey, a roboticist at the University of Sheffield who is a regular contributor to the BBC's Robot Wars, agreed, but he said there were more immediate concerns. "The idea of machine consciousness and rights is ... a bit of a fairy tale as far as I'm concerned," he said. "My concern is about public safety. I think we need proper, informed, public debate about where we are going with robotics at the moment. We need to tell the public about what's going on in robotics and ask them what they want."

Last year the South Korean military unveiled a robot border guard built by Samsung that can shoot targets up to 500 metres away. He said these could be programmed with a shoot-to-kill policy. The US, meanwhile, is on the way to achieving its goal of replacing one third of its ground vehicles with autonomous robots.

"It would be great if all the military were robots and they could fight each other, but that's not going to be the case," he said. "My biggest concern there is that it goes against the body bag politics. If you don't have body bags coming home, you can start a war much more easily."

Once robots become more common in warfare, he predicted they would be used more widely in policing and surveillance; so far there has been very little serious and informed public debate on these issues.

Offenders could, he suggested, be monitored at home by a guard robot and the streets could be patrolled by mobile robot CCTV. They could also be used to deal with riots and other civil disturbances, he predicted. "Imagine the miners' strike with robots armed with water cannon."

By providing companionship and basic care and health monitoring for older people, robo-carers could look after the increasing numbers of elderly people. And he predicted that vibrating sex-robots would be available soon for those bored with blow-up dolls.

Powered by ScribeFire.

worn out

I am tired and worn out

Powered by ScribeFire.

pleasurable

In the arena of law, the sexed body is constituted in myriad forms-as criminal, delinquent, procreative, but rarely ever as erotic or pleasurable. Law, born of violence and projected as force, operates along trajectories of regulations, prohibitions, and penalties, designed to monitor, deter and punish.

Predatory US.....huh...

I made a comment on "foreign aid" and that I don't want my government involved in it and you reply about "blacks tied in cotton fields" ...and Hitler gassing the Jews?"

As for your assertion that the U.S. "takes away" more from foreign countries than it donates to them, we're not "taking" anything from them!*They're being paid for those assets!*
If countries don't want to sell to the U.S. then don't sell to the U.S.It sounds like you're not from the U.S. by your sentence structure.You seem to be saying that somehow I support Republicans and George Bush.I do not.I also do not like Democrats and didn't vote for P.E. Obama or John McCain.
It is the Democrats and Republicans who have gotten us into the mess we're in right now.
If P.E. Obama is just going to continue Clinton's and Bush's policies then there will be no "change."
It is simply not the "job description" of the U.S. govt. to be giving our Taxdollars away to foreign countries in "foreign aid."
I neither need nor want them doing so on my "behalf."
There is simply way too much *corruption* involved in those programs!
If "foreign aid" programs actually worked,the amount we gave every year should be going "down" not up!
Those programs have become nothing more than a way for the lobbyists on K Street to become rich by stealing the Taxpayer's money!
If individual citizens want to give to "NGOs" I have no problem with that and, that's the way it (should) be done.
However, after 40 years of "foreign aid" to African countries those countries need to start being *responsable* for themselves and their own citizens!
As for "Mugabe" being "despicable" or not again, that is none of my business as a U.S. Citizen.
I am not anyone's "knight in shining armor" or "rescuer" or walking ATM machine.
If we are going to see any real "change" from P.E. Obama he needs to *end* all of these "foreign aid" programs that make the few in Washington rich and get our Troops out of foreign countries!

Posted by Thomas Porter on 01/05/2009 @ 08:43AM PST

First, America cannot be what is today, and I repeat CANNOT be what it is today -- without extorting and intimidating the rest of the world, using all kinds of tools available to it -- IMF, WORLD BANK, CIA, ....and now FBI crawling around in almost every country in the world.

America needs cheap resources from the rest of the world and has used, and is at present using military might to ensure that your "HAMBURGER" costs only $1.00.
America takes away from other nations more than it "donates" to them. These excerpts from the book: "If You Love This Planet," by Helen Caldicott, gives a very clear picture about how "predatory" the United States and other developed countries are to the third world: http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Helen_Caldicott/Third_World_Debt_IYLTP.html
When George Washington said: "We should avoid foreign entanglements," he had no clue what was ahead -- absolutely! This constant referral to the 1800's a.k.a "Our Founding Fathers," is not only archaic, but is also most of the times -- irrelevant.
 Take for example the quotation "All men are created equal" -- first used by Thomas Jefferson in the Declaration of Independence. If all men were created equal -- the George W. Bush should be hanged as soon as he leaves office!
Yeah ...all men are created equal, while you have hundreds of blacks "tied" in your backyard and in your cotton fields!
Unfortunately bits and pieces of this mentality still exist today.
  Lying and using false representations to cause the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, and the upheaval of millions of children, women and families, while heaping hate on top of hate, is as treasonous as Hitler's propaganda machine, which he used as an excuse to exterminate German Jews.
And I haven't even counted the crimes he committed while blatantly stealing Florida in 2000, and then using "Fear-Mongering Propaganda" to steal it a second time in 2004 -- documented here in video: http://www.politicalarticles.net/blog/2008/10/20/republicans-already-stealing-early-votes-in-west-virginia/
Mugabe as despicable as he is, doesn't even come close!
What's the difference between murdering your own people or the people of another country --- Iraq?
As for Omar al-Bashir -- I wish I could hang him myself!-

Awards for the World's Worst Human Rights Abusers and their Enablers

Stop Genocide - Change.org: The 2008 Hall of Shame: Awards for the World's Worst Human Rights Abusers and their Enablers

The Napoleon Award for Excellence in the Art of Petty Dictatorship:

Mr. Robert "Bobby" Mugabe, President of Zimbabwe: For running his country into the ground, denying the existence of a massive cholera epidemic (and then blaming it on the British), rigging two elections (because one alone just isn't satisfying), arresting everyone who disagrees with him (because why wouldn't you, if you were a dictator?), and blaming the opposition for spoiling unity talks while claiming that he will "never, never, never, never surrender."

The Jekyll/Hyde Award for Excellence in the Art of Being Shamelessly Two-Faced:

Mr. Omar al-Bashir, President of Sudan: For trying to simultaneously threaten retribution and show to world that he's a peace-loving military dictator to convince the UN to suspend the ICC indictment proceedings against him. Of particular note: Making a huge stinking deal about declaring an unconditional ceasefire, and then bombing Darfur a couple of days later.

The "Seriously?" Award for Subverting Your Principles and Supporting the Worst Human Rights Abusers on the Planet:

The African Union and the Arab League: For campaigning to suspend the ICC investigation into Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, with no preconditions for peace.

The Jellyfish Award for Being Utterly Spineless:

The Southern African Development Community: For allowing Bobby Mugabe to walk all over you like Nancy Sinatra in her go-go boots.

The Shovel Award for Digging an Impressively Deep Hole:

All Parties to the Conflict in the DRC: Congolese President Joseph Kabila, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, Rebel leader Laurent Nkunda, the Congolese military, the FDLR---y'all really screwed the pooch on this one.

The "Partner in Crime" Award for Being the Bonnie to Bobby's Clyde:

Thabo Mbeki, Former President of South Africa: For showing that you can do so much more than just be complicit in your buddy's plan to sink an entire sub-continent.

The "Well, Of Course You Did" Award for Predictability in Enabling Despots:

China: For never failing to prop up all of the a-holes and dictators everywhere, including all of those mentioned above.

And last, but not least...

The "Squandered Opportunities" Award:

President George Bush and his Administration: For not using your extraordinary power to back up your professed values with actions that could mitigate or end the suffering of millions all over the world.

[Note: The author would like to thank her good friends Kelly Spellman and Michael Kleinman for their assistance in issuing these awards.]

BHP

BHP has its lowest profit for five years | The Australian

BHP Billiton has delivered its lowest half-year profit in five years on falling demand and major asset write-downs.

And it warned that any revival in demand from China would not be sufficient to boost commodity markets.

While underlying pre-tax earnings rose 24 per cent year on year, impairments from depressed prices, taxes and the failed Ravensthorpe nickel operation slashed net profit by 57 per cent to $US2.68 billion ($4.18 billion), the lowest since 2004.

But BHP hoisted the interim dividend from US29c to US41c -- a result that is sweetened for local shareholders by the fall in the Australian dollar.

Analysts said the pre-tax profit of $US11.9 billion was in line with expectations and a decent performance in depressed markets.

However, it was still 18 per cent below that in the previous half and could be the last big underlying earnings number from the miner for some time.

The strong underlying earnings were driven largely by coking coal and iron ore, whose annually set prices have yet to befully exposed to the recent downturn in exchange-traded commodities.

Base metals and nickel lost money, while underlying profit for aluminium fell.

Chief executive Marius Kloppers gave his most downbeat public view yet of markets and their prospects, saying a recovery in China would not be enough to buoy global commodity markets.

"The outlook for the world economy, in the short as well as the medium term, remains weak and uncertain," Mr Kloppers said at a media briefing in Sydney.

When Mr Kloppers last addressed shareholders two months ago, he restricted his views to the short term, which he said was uncertain.

Now he says people are being too optimistic about the medium-term impact of the current downturn and the timing of a recovery.

"We, like all or most other people, did not see the speed or the dramatic nature of the downturn that occurred," he said, adding that it was unlike anything he or anybody else at the company had seen before.

There were some encouraging signs coming out of China, where iron ore demand was starting to pick up after a period of destocking, but this would not be enough to fix the situation.

"With only 30 to 35 per cent of absolute commodities demand, China alone cannot be relied on to support overall global commodities demand," he said.

"For global commodities demand to perform well, a synchronised improvement in both the OECD and China will be required."

BHP reported attributable profit before exceptional items of $US6.13 billion, up 2.2 per cent from a year earlier.

This was below analysts' expectations of close to $US7 billion, but this was due to a big tax hit caused partly by a weaker Australian dollar.

The final profit number involved $US2.35 billion of net write-downs on the failed Ravensthorpe nickel project in Western Australia and another $US1.2billion of charges from other impairments, rehabilitation at the Newcastle steelworks and the failed Rio Tinto bid.

Mr Kloppers stressed BHP's low gearing ratio of below 10 per cent and strong cash flows and said the company still planned to invest through the downturn.

BHP was also in a position to take advantage of any opportunities that current depressed conditions threw up and was still keen to buy Rio's minority stake in BHP's Escondida copper mine in Chile, he said.

Capital spending is forecast to be $US11.3 billion this financial year, up from $US9.3 billion last year but down $US2.2 billion from the previous forecast.

That compares with Rio Tinto's recent decision to cut capital spending from more than $US9billion to $US4 billion as the company struggles to pay down $US38.9 billion of debt.

Deutsche Bank analyst Peter O'Connor said the profit announcement was a reasonable result on a mixed performance from the company's businesses.

Shares in the big miner reflected this view, ending down 1c at $29.77.

China

China's small factories struggle | The Australian

THE global downturn is taking a severe toll on China's dynamic small businesses, forcing them to adopt innovative, and sometimes desperate, strategies to survive.
Ye Jianqing, like many other Chinese entrepreneurs, has seen a sharp decline in orders from the US and Europe, which account for most of his business.

Last year, sales of the sunglasses his company, Wenzhou Zhenqing Glasses, makes dropped 80 per cent to less than $300,000 ($AUD 470,000) from $1.5 million in 2007.

Fearing his eight-year-old business might not survive another year, Mr Ye is switching gradually into new products, such as key rings and prescription eyewear. "If you're not innovative and you don't change yourself, you're just waiting to die," he says.

The fate of small businesses like Mr Ye's will help determine how the world's third-largest economy rides out the current downturn, China's worst since the Asian financial crisis a decade ago.

According to rough official estimates, the private sector, which is primarily small businesses, accounts for close to 60 per cent of China's economic output, and employs three-quarters of the urban work force. That's a big turnaround from just a decade ago, when stodgy and poorly run state enterprises dominated the economy.

Entrepreneurial activity hasn't ground to a halt. In Guangdong province, a manufacturing and trade hub, 62,400 companies shut down in 2008, according to government records. But 100,600 companies were started, resulting in a net increase of 38,200 companies.

Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Dragonomics Research & Advisory in Beijing says there are many benefits to the rise of small business, "The Chinese economy is a lot more flexible today than in the 1990s.

"Private firms can shift from unprofitable to profitable lines of business, and adjust their wage and other costs, much more quickly,’ he said.

But many small companies survive on the business of just a few clients, or sell very low-margin products; they could be forced to close if a big client suddenly delays orders, or when they don't plan ahead for currency fluctuations. Bigger businesses are more cushioned from such effects.
As global demand for almost everything weakens, small companies' legendary flexibility is no guarantee they'll survive.

Many companies have already closed, putting millions of people in China out of jobs. Small-business owners who are still in business are willing to try almost anything. Sometimes there are manufacturing synergies to such changes, but other companies take a gamble on products they have no experience with, or which have no proven market.

Chongqing Linsheng Industry & Trade, which has made motorcycle parts for 13 years, is considering launching a line of mechanical self-shuffling mah-jongg tables.

In Wenzhou, shoe-factory employees are now churning out light-emitting diodes, and in Shenzhen, a maker of plastic signs shut down briefly and then reopened as a maker of decorative holiday decals.

Eric Wu, general manager of manufacturer and exporter Duolilong Industrial said "In Chinese we have a saying that 'it's easier for small boats to turn around,'" says Eric.

Until recently a booming manufacturing hub in China's south. The 11-year-old company has already completely switched products once before. Earlier this decade, as the market for fans shrank, it changed to making battery chargers. Now, executives are about to do it again, with plans to release a new line of energy-saving power tools this year. "If we don't change, then we have no hope," Mr Wu says.

The economic importance of China's small businesses is getting some recognition from the government. Officials have instructed banks since the fall to lend more to smaller companies.

But it isn't yet clear how much of the rebound in bank lending in the final months of 2008 - it rose 18.8 per cent year-to-year in December - went to small business. Many analysts suspect the big state firms that banks have long favoured were still the main beneficiaries.

Small businesses' attempts to survive can come at the expense of workers, who have little bargaining power with bosses. Though new labour legislation that came into force last year was intended to strengthen worker protections, it remains easy for private companies to hire and fire in China. Chinese officials have been trying to prevent such layoffs recently, but some factory owners are simply walking away as things get bad, leaving workers without pay.

In one case, the owner of a clothing company in Shenzhen disappeared, leaving 212 workers with 1.14 million yuan ($AUD264,000) in unpaid wages, according to state-run media. In October, the manager of Hong Kong-listed toy company Smart Union Group Holdings, whose clients included Mattel , fled after Smart Union filed for bankruptcy, leaving 7,000 workers at the company's two factories in Dongguan without jobs and owed back pay totalling more than 24 million Yuan.

The flexibility to fire workers could well be accelerating China's downturn now -- but it may mean managers can move equally quickly to ramp up again in a recovery. "In a very cold-blooded economists' way of talking, it means the labor market has maximum flexibility," says Qu Hongbin, an economist with HSBC in Hong Kong. "When it comes to surviving the downturn, those things are a plus, though they are negative from a moral perspective."

Executives make no apologies about doing what they think is necessary to get through the downturn. Constant reinvention has always been a way of life for some Chinese companies.

"It's a game of waiting to die, or doing what you need to do to try and survive," says Huang Huigu, chief executive of computer-bag and -accessory maker Guangzhou Kingsons Leather Products, which is releasing lower-price versions of its most popular products.

Mr Huang is reading a Chinese business book released in October called "Rebirth through Switching.

sorry

i was busy most of day... i could not get back to you right away... snowstorm. Why cannot sleep? I am sorry, talk to you soon I am hoping.

clear.vague.mystery.clarity.

i am not feeling like this right now... need massage and pain relief... can not get those, so I think I will sleep instead... or at least try to. Tomorrow I work hard. Begin big project. I need rest. I want to stay in touch with you, but have priorities.

wives and whores

Hindu Brahmanical texts prescribed that a 'good wife's dharma was to be a servant at work, a mother  at mealtimes,and a prostitute in love making' (Sangari, 1999:358). What do you think, readers?

Crashing waves

I wrote a poem about the ocean, it never saw
The light of day, because I took it out to the fire
Where every word I stressed so blatantly burned up
Like my interests in poetry, and fire.

one twelfth is gone

Two Sundays have gone..........

one twelfth is gone

Two Sundays has gone..........

Existentialism

Existentialism... you really must get that book I mentioned then..  Milan Kundera, Unbearable Lightness of Being,  it is a play on the ideas of Satre, Being and Nothingness....
Milan Kundera, Unbearable Lightness of Being - get that one from your library, if you like Flaubert - you will enjoy.

Kundera

Milan Kundera, Unbearable Lightness of Being - get that one from your library, if you like Flaubert - you will enjoy.

no chaste mind

I just remember this quote from Hoffer. It resonates with me.

There are no chaste mind. Minds copulate wherever they meet.

so bad

I miss him so bad...I am addicted with his love...I miss him so bad...can't sleep..I want to be with him right now..he is far..I miss him so bad..so bad

Michael Phelps and Marijuana

I was wondering why marijuana be a problem ..let Phelps going a bong. That is his life...we should not have  a prejudice on pot...anyway.

Rudd and the death of neo-liberalism

Rudd sees death of neo-liberalism | The Australian

KEVIN Rudd has put his ideological spin on the global crisis - arguing the great neo-liberal experiment of the past 30 years represented by Thatcher, Reagan, Greenspan and John Howard has failed.

Rudd has defined himself, his Government and his re-election strategy by declaring that only social democrats and the Labor Party can recruit state power to save capitalism.

He has thrown the Liberal Party on to the trash heap of history, saying it is "the political home of neo-liberalism in Australia" and that the former Howard government aimed to reduce state power "as much as possible".

Declaring that a failed 30-year epoch in world history has come to a conclusion, Rudd says the crisis means "one orthodoxy is overthrown and another takes its place".

The new epoch is about using state power "to save capitalism from itself". Rudd's aim is to hold global neo-liberal policies responsible for the catastrophe and the Howard government as local upholder of these fatal ideas. His game plan is to position Labor as the long-run political and ideological winner from the crisis.

In his latest essay for The Monthly, to be published next week, Rudd turns the global crisis into a decisive ideological event. The resort to government intervention demanded by the crisis fits perfectly with Rudd's philosophy. He presents Malcolm Turnbull with an ideological challenge by insisting the Liberals stand on the wrong side of history.

The significance of Rudd's essay is that Labor will become the party of ideological attack and neo-liberalism and its backers will become the targets. This is a device to keep Labor united during the coming recession and the Liberal Party on the defensive.

He sees the crisis not just in policy terms, but as a turning point in the history of ideas. He wants to bury the Howard legacy and the Liberal Party in the failures of American laissez-faire.

Rudd declares the current crisis "is the culmination of a 30-year domination of economic policy by a free-market ideology that has been variously called neo-liberalism, economic liberalism, economic fundamentalism, Thatcherism or the Washington consensus".

He says this philosophy was anti-tax, anti-regulation, anti-government. It believed in unregulated financial markets, self-correcting markets, complete labour market deregulation and opposed investment in public goods.

Rudd dates the neo-liberal ascendancy from 1978-2008 and speculates with breathtaking hubris that the post-2008 epoch might be called "social capitalism" or "social democratic capitalism". He says it will be defined by an activist state and open markets.

In Rudd's view, social democrats must use a resurrected state power to regulate markets, strike a better balance between public and private interests, embrace Keynesian economics, correct for market failure from the financial system to climate change and invest more in education, health, unemployment insurance and retirement incomes - while supporting open markets and withstanding attacks from the extreme Left and nationalist Right.

He shuns any embrace of old-fashioned socialism. For Rudd, Labor's task is to hold the middle ground - between state socialism and free-market fundamentalism. He argues the failure of neo-liberalism has made the state the primary actor; it must save the financial system, stimulate the economy and impose a new global regulatory regime.

Rudd has put Turnbull on notice. His plan is to convert the global crisis into a historic failure of Liberal Party philosophy and its pro-market ideas.

Is that smoking green so wrong? It is only herbs

Going off with a bong: gold medallist's life is up in smoke - Sport - smh.com.au

NOTHING could damage Michael Phelps's reputation. Nothing. Except this. Photographs purported to be of the superstar American swimmer smoking marijuana have been published by the News of the World in England. According to the notorious rag, Phelps's aides went to great lengths to stop the publication of the pictures. Needless to say, they failed. Front-page headline: "Phelps Goes Bong". Inside: "What A Dope." The story was accompanied by a shot of the 14-times Olympic gold medallist sucking on a glass pipe. In other words, a bong. The News Of The World once printed photos of Shane Warne in white underpants while in the company of a couple of semi-naked English lasses. The damage in Warne's case was limited because his image was already less than saintly. But Phelps, despite a past drink-driving offence, was standing alongside Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Usain Bolt and Tiger Woods as the pin-up boys of world sport. The governing body of swimming, FINA, declined to comment. Recently they announced four-year bans for drug offences. The pictures were taken at a house party at the University of South Carolina that Phelps attended last November because his girlfriend, Jordan Matthews, was there. "Michael came to visit Jordan but ended up just getting wasted every night," the newspaper quoted a source as saying. "He arrived with a group of girls hanging all over him. Jaws hit the floor when he walked in. You don't get many celebrities in Columbia, so when Phelps comes to your party, it's a very big deal. He didn't know many people so you'd think he'd be a little shy. But he was loud, obnoxious and slamming beers from the get-go. Every girl wanted a piece of him and every guy wanted to be his best buddy. He couldn't get enough of all the attention. You could tell Michael had smoked before. He grabbed the bong and a lighter and knew exactly what to do. He looked just as natural with a bong in his hands as he does swimming in the pool. He was the gold medal winner of bong hits. Michael ended up getting a little paranoid, though, because before too long he looked like he was nervous and ran out of the place." In 2004, aged 19, Phelps received 18 months' probation for driving while under the influence of alcohol. He had been a cleanskin ever since, save for raising eyebrows when he became friendly with Australian swimmer Stephanie Rice after the Olympics. Phelps once described his career and life so far: "All you do is eat, sleep, swim; eat, sleep, swim; eat, sleep, swim." The US Olympic Committee, USA Swimming, the World Anti-Doping Agency and Phelps's coach, Bob Bowman, also refused to comment. Phelps, who earned an estimated $US4million ($6.27m) in endorsements last year, resumed training two weeks ago for the world championships to be held in Rome in July. His commitment had been questioned by claims he was dating former stripper Caroline Pal. The News Of The World said Phelps's spokesman Clifford Bloxham offered for Phelps to become their columnist for three years, host events and get his sponsors to advertise with the newspaper. Bloxham was quoted as saying: "It's seeing if something potentially very negative for Michael could turn into something very positive for the News of the World." For Phelps, the negative stayed negative. His glass was left half empty. Australian swimming officials said no Australian swimmers were at the November party. Phelps would not be tested for cannabis or other social drugs unless he was "in competition", under World Anti-Doping Agency rules. But any Australian swimmer caught in the same situation would face more serious consequences after they followed the trend of AFL and NRL footballers in agreeing to an illicit drug-testing policy. Under such an illicit drug policy - brought into focus in the wake of Ben Cousins's bizarre behaviour - but not yet signed off by the athletes, Australian swimmers can in future be tested for substances such as cannabis in all drug-testing situations, including out of competition, and face bans ranging from a fine to a sanction of up to two years.

www.ichaview.blogspot.com

incognito

Porn mode - no longer a dirty little secret | Digihub Blog | digihub.smh.com.au

People like porn, but some web browsers have been slow to acknowledge this naked 800 pound gorilla sitting in the corner.

Whenever you surf the web, you leave behind all kinds of clues on your computer as to what you've been doing, such as cookies, images in the cache and addresses in the browser history. Anyone who knows even the slightest bit about computers can easily tell what you've been up to unless you cover your tracks. Thus the popularity of "porn mode" in web browsers.

Of course they don't call it porn mode, it's more likely to be labelled "private browsing mode" or "stealth mode". There are lots of legitimate reasons why you might want to engage such a mode, but surely the number one reason for most people is so they can look at porn without leaving behind incriminating evidence that their loved ones might stumble across.

There are porn mode plugins for some browsers, but it seems Safari on Mac OS was the first to get a built-in porn mode back in April 2005. Google's Chrome browser launched with "Incognito mode" in 2008. Surprisingly the two browsers with the biggest market share have been very slow off the mark. Mozilla Firefox still doesn't have a built-in porn mode, although it's expected to be included in the upcoming 3.1 update. Likewise Internet Explorer doesn't let you peruse unsavory sites with impunity, but an "InPrivate mode" is coming in IE8.

The usual suspects will naturally come out of the woodwork to declare porn mode yet another sign of the coming apocalypse, but if you don't give the people what they want they'll go elsewhere. I doubt IE and Firefox consider Safari much of a threat, but once Google Chrome launched on Windows with porn mode last year, the pressure was on IE and Firefox to follow suit. I'd say it's the kind of feature that would encourage people to switch browsers, or at least to install a second browser for their clandestine browsing sessions. If people install Chrome just for looking at porn, they might decide they like it better than IE or Firefox and make the switch completely.

If you've got a dirty little secret, and you'd like to keep it that way, porn mode is coming to a browser near you.

chameleon

Which chameleon do you prefer? - Paul Sheehan - Opinion - smh.com.au

When Federal Parliament resumes for the first session of 2009 tomorrow, two large egos will face each other across the red chamber; two men with Napoleonic habits of thought and action. Only one will survive the battlefield defined by the global recession.

Kevin Rudd became the Prime Minister after a campaign in which he repeatedly described himself as an "economic conservative" and mimicked the economic policies of the incumbent, John Howard. Rudd had the good fortune to inherit a well-stocked cupboard left behind by the former treasurer, Peter Costello: a healthy banking sector, zero government debt, a budget surplus, the Future Fund, the Higher Education Endowment Fund and the Communications Fund. Combined they provided a massive financial buffer of about $90 billion.

It was greater than most governments had at the outset of the global recession. As soon as the financial freeze hit, Rudd threw $10 billion up against the wall in an effort to look decisive. As the former Labor treasurer of NSW, Michael Costa, tartly wrote last week: "Rudd's Australian Business Investment Partnership, along with the bank deposits fiasco, the wasted $10 billion fiscal stimulus, and selective industry protectionism, displays a pattern of gimmicky policy responses."

Now Rudd is offering himself as an economic oracle, by way of a 10,000-word analysis to be published in The Monthly this week. Like much of what Rudd has said since becoming Prime Minister, the piece is an inflated balloon of self-promoting spin. He portrays himself as the champion of "social democracy". Yet the closest we've had to a Labor-led social democratic government in recent years has been in Britain, where the Labour Government went into this recession in heavy deficit. No Costello buffer. Britain is now in severe recession.

Rudd evidently intends to dismiss the financial legacy of the Howard/Costello government, and the Liberal opposition, as "market fundamentalism". So far his Government has done a reasonable job in responding to the global recession, although the response of the Opposition Leader, Malcolm Turnbull, has been more nuanced, measured and far less grandiose.

Rudd is far from alone. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, over the past five days, a succession of speakers expressed concern at the reflexive hyperactivity of governments in reaction to the crisis, embarking on misdirected spending sprees that will prolong the process of recovery.

Obama and BlackBerry

Obama refuses to surrender BlackBerry - Technology - smh.com.au

Despite legal and security hurdles, president-elect Barack Obama says he has a plan to retain his beloved Blackberry once he moves into the White House next week.

Interviewed by CNN on Friday, Obama said the smartphone was among the tools that he would use to stay in touch with real Americans and avoid becoming trapped inside the presidential "bubble".

"I think we're going to be able to hang on to one of these. My working assumption, and this is not new, is that anything I write on an email could end up being on CNN," he said.

"So I make sure to think before I press 'send'," he said of his Blackberry, which was an ever-present fixture on his belt or in his hand on the campaign trail.

Obama did not divulge just how he will overcome legal constraints, given the requirement of the post-Watergate Presidential Records Act of 1978 to keep a record of every White House communication.

Nor did he say how he would persuade his Secret Service protectors that the Blackberry does not pose a security risk, for instance if it is hacked over the air.

But Obama, who succeeds the unpopular George W. Bush on Tuesday, said the phone was a valuable part of a wider strategy to escape the White House fishbowl.

"It's just one tool among a number of tools that I'm trying to use, to break out of the bubble, to make sure that people can still reach me," he said.

"If I'm doing something stupid, somebody in Chicago can send me an email and say, 'What are you doing?'

"I want to be able to have voices, other than the people who are immediately working for me, be able to reach out and send me a message about what's happening in America."

The mobile device dilemma may have inadvertently been solved on Friday, as Obama's Blackberry tumbled from his belt as he got out of his limousine and onto his plane in Washington.

A Secret Service agent hurried to pick up the pieces, gathering the Blackberry and battery off the frigid tarmac.

Facebook

Gay or straight, your Facebook is their fortune - Technology - smh.com.au

FACEBOOK is planning to exploit the vast amount of personal information it holds on its 150 million members by creating one of the world's largest market research databases.

In an attempt to finally cash in on the social networking site, once valued at $US15 billion ($23.6 billion), it will soon allow multinational companies to selectively target its members in order to research the appeal of new products. Companies will be able to pose questions to specially selected members based on such intimate details as whether they are single or married and even whether they are gay or straight.

The company, which has struggled to make money from advertising, has been demonstrating the benefits of its new instant polling tool to business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Randi Zuckerberg, the global markets director of Facebook and sister of its founder, Mark Zuckerberg, said multinational companies had been bowled over by the ability to receive real-time feedback from the site's millions of users.

"I had tons of people saying 'this could be so incredible for our business'. It takes a very long time to do a focus group, and businesses often don't have the luxury of time. I think they liked the instant responses," she said.

At the conference Facebook asked a range of questions of its users before feeding the answers back to delegates within minutes. It targeted users in Palestine and then Israel with the same question about global peace, before debating the results.

Marketing experts have said the vast amount of personal information Facebook holds may be worth "untold millions" to market research companies.

Facebook has sold the new polling system, called engagement ads, to CareerBuilder, a recruitment company.

Telegraph, London